Saxo Market Call

Market stumbles into a new week. Apple in trouble?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3nsKdMo   -

Today we look at the ugly sell-off in US equities on Friday and the degree to which fresh anti-trust concerns on Apple are driving the action, the latest initiatives in China against platform companies, the stakes for Norway in today's general election, the oil and industrial metals markets, the week ahead in macro data and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Yields drop on ECB, US T-bond auction. Eyeing India

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2X8yUOB   -

Today we look at the boost to sentiment after a weak session in the US yesterday as China's Xi and US president Biden spoke on the phone late yesterday. Elsewhere, yields have dropped sharply after a relatively dovish ECB and another strong US treasury auction, this time the 30-year T-bond. In commodities, relative precious metal action is in focus, while our equity focus for the day is on the compelling story of India, and whether the ESG outperformance is something we can hang our hats on.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market rout deepens. ECB to underwhelm?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3l9dCIJ   -

Today we look back on another weak day for US equities, and one that spilled over into the Asian session overnight for the first time in a while. In breaking down possible causes, it is clear that rising yields are not among them as the US 10-year treasury auction saw strong demand. We break down last thoughts ahead of the ECB meeting, Poland in hot water with the EU, El Salvador's high stakes commitment to Bitcoin, company earnings focus on Zscaler and Sea Ltd and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market looks increasingly unsettled. Are rising US yields a trigger?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3ngm8IG   -

Considerable divergences within the US market yesterday as the broader market corrected lower even as the Nasdaq 100 Index managed a new all-time highs, ironically so as this index tends to be more interest rate sensitive, and we have the US 10-year treasury benchmark yield perched near upside breakout levels. We also  look into the crypto flash-crash, the DAX 30 set to become the DAX 40, earnings, focus in the currency market, gold's fresh woes, grains and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

ECB to lead Fed? Possible mischief if US 10-year yields break higher.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/38L8ogz   -

Today we delve into whether the intense new enthusiasm for Japanese equities is warranted, especially in relative valuation terms. Elsewhere, we look at whether the ECB is set to actually lead the Fed in tapering asset purchases and the key trigger levels for US 10-year yields, which are perhaps the only thing that can temper the advance in US equities. We also look at huge boost to uranium and at commodities more broadly as positive roll yields remain available for passive longs. FX themes, upcoming earnings and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Japan flying high. Supply chain risks multiplying.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3tvIeZ3   -

Today we look at the extension of the powerful boost to Japanese equities overnight after the announcement late last week that PM Suga intends to resign. We also discuss US treasury yields as a risk to this extremely risk-on market as a trio of important treasury auctions are set for this week after the Friday sell-off in treasuries despite a weak headline US August payrolls change number. In commodities, the focus is on multiplying supply side constraints in natural gas and metals. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Is this the final melt-up of the cycle?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3DT9yoT   -

Today we continue to voice concerns about the state of this market, even as we note the increasingly risk-on stance in currencies and a fresh rush higher in Japanese equities overnight on the news that Prime Minister Suga is set to resign. A look at global and particularly US equity market valuations underlines our point on concerns for longer term returns, and even shorter term ones as September is historically a weak month. A look at today's US jobs report and treasury market reactivity, commodities performance and more also on the pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Equities dip, but FX points to fresh risk sentiment boost

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3mUQyzX   -

Today we look at the slight dip in risk sentiment in US equities, but note a more risk-on tone in FX, where the USD and JPY are continuing south and the formerly beleaguered Aussie has staged a v-shaped recovery from recent lows. A look at oil in the wake of the OPEC meeting yesterday, US grains under pressure on trade infrastructure damage from Hurricane Ida, precious metals levels, anti-trust risks for Google rising and more on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic