Saxo Market Call

Today, we note the fresh pop in US treasury yields to new cycle highs after the Treasury market buyback and Treasury Secretary Bessent's posturing failed to shore up confidence. Elsewhere, it was a rather negative day for risk sentiment on the latest aggravated rise in crude oil prices and that rise in yields, with Europe particularly spooked ahead of today's ECB meeting. We note key equity stories like Apple's (Gen Z targeted?) pricey new foldable phone, Meta's pop on the enthusiasm for its Muse AI agent. Most of all, we queue up what to look for over tomorrow's US CPI release. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Trump wants cheap hamburger meat ahead of the mid-terms. Matt Stoller covers the story and shows what this may cost him politically with some of his base - and what it may cost those consuming the questionable meat. Yikes. 
• The FT version of the widely covered resignation of an Anthropic researcher over concerns that the company is not doing enough to enforce safety guardrails and that AI could end humanity as the company and OpenAI are "'gambling' with the future of mankind".
• Michael Every reposted a news item on X that Germany's Deutsche Bank will be appointed as the clearer and settler of RMB (Chinese yuan) transactions in Europe. Wasn't the EU supposed to be gearing up for a less friendly face to China on concerns it is undermining EU industry with its cheap and subsidized exports?
• (HT FTAlphaville) A Bruegel long-form piece poking into the factors that are driving the rise in long-term interest rates - it's not just about fiscal profligacy.
• ProPublica earlier this year looked into how Trump might look to call the mid-term election results into question if they are not favourable for Republicans - a high risk on this front, but how high when the president himself is so unpopular?

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a thorough look across the commodity space with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, discussing the latest developments in oil, refined products and the natural gas markets, the drivers for the recent record highs in the copper price and whether that price remains "too low" relative to gold if suppliers are to increase production. Elsewhere, a discussion of the latest moves in equities, a still heavy focus on FX and rates as the yen is on the move and yields are pushing on the highs for the cycle ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow and US August CPI report up on Friday. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Does heavy AI us mean that students don't learn as much? Probably, but there are nuances. "In China and many other countries, well-designed tutoring tools already exist, often at nearly zero cost. Most students just do not use them. Rather, they prefer general-purpose AI tools that make it easy to outsource homework."
• Erik Townsend points out the very high cost of the most recently completed US nuclear power plants and wonders if the new ones can be built (by a South Korean outfit) in the US at prices that are proven possible elsewhere and some 75% lower. Stumbled across another interesting post on NexGen Energy and long-term uranium supply as well.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, noting the significant technical break lower for USDJPY and what may come next, with spiking energy prices somewhat of a headwind for JPY bulls and for global risk sentiment in general. At what point could energy prices suddenly seize more of the market's attention bandwidth? Elsewhere, we look into the record copper price, which is partially related to Hormuz Strait woes, Amazon's abuses of its monopoly status, geopolitics and much more. Hosting today's pod is Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. 

Links

• John's The FX Trader piece from today, focusing mostly on the yen.
• Cory Doctorow carves up Amazon for its "payola" practices and aggressive extraction of profits, even for shipping, from the sellers on its platform.
• Here's a podcast that goes into where risk may be hiding in the cozy relationship between some insurance companies and private credit outfits. 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

 

Today, most interesting to note that the positive US jobs report was unable to inspire sustained new highs in US treasury yields or spark a US dollar rally, with USDJPY even breaking down below critical support to start the week as US markets are closed for the extended Labor Day holiday. Elsewhere, AI hardware stocks are trying to get back their mojo as OpenAI has released its latest model. More on the earnings and macro focus for the week ahead and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• An X post by "JH" describing the alarming copper supply shortage that must be overcome, likely with a tremendous price signal, if we are to continue building out AI and electrifying our economies.
• OpenAI's chief scientist with a piece on the prospects of AI achieving new levels of super-human intelligence and the implications in a piece somewhat ominously titled An Alien Mind.
• In the wake of watershed Germany elections at the weekend in Saxony-Anhalt and other events across Europe and elsewhere, Michael Every's latest piece follows the threads connecting political events across Europe and around the world. 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

 

Today, a look at the very confusing comments from the Fed's Waller, who waxed dovish so soon after Chair Warsh's recent hawkish musings that the market doesn't know what to do with the next FOMC meeting. Gold and crypto rose sharply on Waller's comments. Also, important incoming US jobs data today for the US treasury market, but especially for USDJPY after the big move higher in the JPY this week, which arguably has more fundamental support than previous rounds of official intervention were able to provide. This and much more on today's pod, especially on another good day for Tesla and whether we are at some kind of Cybercab inflection point. Hosting today is Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Bloomberg discusses the odd meeting of Japan's largest (and word's largest) pension fund and whether this means a raise of allocation to Japanese government bonds, with this story likely an important contributor to the recent JPY rally.
• A Tech Crunch article discusses Tesla's polling the market for anyone interested in operating Cybercab fleets. I didn't cover on today's pod that apparently, the post-Cybercab event coverage late yesterday was somewhat negative. 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at markets pausing to take a breath after the recent brutal rise in bond yields. The biggest mover Wednesday and Thursday was the Japanese yen on an apparent fresh round of intervention, although some interesting dynamics are at play in the Japanese government bond market as well. Elsewhere, a look at extreme bifurcation in AI stories for single names after earnings reports. A big focus on macro and FX and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Breathlessly enthusiastic Silicon Valley types talk up the most optimistic outlook for AI I have heard anywhere. Who am I to say they won't be right, but it was a bit nauseating listening, nonetheless with interesting details here and there.
• Gil Duran wrote the ingeniously titled Nerd Reich, a book charging that a tech oligarchy is undermining our democratic institutions and trying to establish a techno-authoritarian state. He traces the intellectual backdrop of its adherents like Peter Thiel, etc. A long form youtube video of the author himself talking about the book.
• An exchange on X about China's huge debt load and its implications depending on how it is unwound - Japanese-style or otherwise.
• The deepest of dives on "what really happened at Jackson Hole" - not the ramblings of Fed Chair Warsh, but rather on the actual theme of Jackson Hole this year, which was Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we look at the hefty risk-off tone across markets, if with a few notable exceptions, as risk assets are justifiably spooked by the further ramping in global bond yields. We argue that the situation feels like it has entered a zone of instability that could see volatility rising further in the near term, not that it has risen that much yet. Elsewhere, a lot of macro and FX coverage, especially on the aggressive spike in front-end Japanese rates to price in a more hawkish BoJ, and yet the yen is sluggish in its response. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Ole's latest piece pointing out that many integrated oil majors have outperformed many of the top market cap companies and AI hyperscalers on both 1-year and 5-year time horizons.
• A Reuters article says G20 should consider raising trade barriers to China for its unfair policies. This sparked an great conversation on X between Steve Hou and the WSJ's Greg Ip on the nature of the US-China relationship and the utility of pursuing a Chinese currency revalution (higher) after Greg Ip wrote an op-ed in favour of the world forcing a CNY reval. 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

 

Today a look at the implications across markets as global yields are breaking higher at the long end of the yield curve, from the US 10-year, which hit a new 19-month high, to the German Bund hitting a 15-year high and 10-year JGB a 30-year high at 3.00%. We have a busy macro calendar for the week ahead as well, particularly for the US. Elsewhere, we note the spike higher in natural gas prices for Europe, the driver's for Tesla's big advance yesterday and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Dwarkesh Patel's writeup on the crazy "Hugging Face indicident" that was so much more, as AI agents went rogue and even took control of an AI research cluster at one point. 
• Germany's political "firewall" against the far right may crumble in Saxony-Anholt in this weekend's elections.
• Jim Bianco looks at the largest single driver of the swelling in S&P 500 profits this year: Anthropic's valuation!

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.