Saxo Market Call
Cognitive dissonance as super-strength US data sees treasuries rally

Cognitive dissonance as super-strength US data sees treasuries rally

April 16, 2021

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3gmIwMW   -

Today we delve into the incredibly strong  US data yesterday, which the US treasury market  not only shrugged off, but rallied on, which could suggest a cautious stance on the view that strong data will ease quickly once the  stimulus sugar rush fades - but why then do US equities remain on fire. Also on the call, the  yield crush helps gold tease pivotal resistance as key pro-cyclical commodities are up almost across the board recently, some thoughts on GBP and FX and more. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Coinbase fizzles from strong starting point.

Coinbase fizzles from strong starting point.

April 15, 2021

https://bit.ly/2OStAeo  -

Today we look at the first day of Coinbase stock trading, which garnered considerable attention and soared briefly from a strong opening price before closing down more than 20% from intraday highs, therefore in a "bear market" although we of course can't judge where it is headed after a mere one day of trading. Also on the call, a look at our new crypto equity theme basket, strong grain prices and the jump in oil, Covid concern in India and implications, junk and EM debt, treasuries, Russian sanctions and the ruble, and more. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Buy-the-fact on hot US CPI boosts bubble stocks. Coinbase IPO incoming.

Buy-the-fact on hot US CPI boosts bubble stocks. Coinbase IPO incoming.

April 14, 2021

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3mL1FcF   -

Today we look at yesterday's March US CPI release, which came in hotter than expected and very hot by historical standards, and yet how the US Treasury market actually rallied on the day, suggesting that the market wants to look through inflation fears for now. This gave speculative stocks a strong boost, even as the broader market was somewhat weak. Elsewhere, we delve into ripping lumber prices, gold celebrating the treasury rally, whether the US dollar is rolling over and the very unusual and riveting Coinbase IPO. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Are global stocks set for negative real returns for the next decade?

Are global stocks set for negative real returns for the next decade?

April 13, 2021

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3te94nx   -

Today we look at MSCI World equity valuations, which are looking as rich as they ever have and if historic patterns persist, the MSCI world index could be set for very weak and even negative real returns for the next decade. Elsewhere, we break down the upcoming US T-bond auction and US March CPI release, moves in commodities and FX, action in Nvidia and semiconductors and much more. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic.

Big week ahead for earnings, politics, treasuries and macro data

Big week ahead for earnings, politics, treasuries and macro data

April 12, 2021

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3s7uL7b    -

Today we have a look at the week ahead, one that could prove action-packed, as the German political situation has heated up dramatically over the weekend and ahead of elections later this year, US Q1 earnings season gets under way this week, US treasury auctions keep the focus on US yields and interesting March macro data points roll into view. Italian debt issuance, FX focus and Microsoft's bid for Nuance and more also on the call. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Flying high, but spotting a few fiscal clouds on the horizon

Flying high, but spotting a few fiscal clouds on the horizon

April 9, 2021

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3g1VIqJ   -

Today we note the continued bid tone in US equities and strong momentum there while strong inflationary pressures in China as shown in a high March PPI reading there overnight suggest policy is to remain tight, restraining sentiment. Looking beyond the near term, one fresh source of longer term concern is the future of US fiscal policy, given evidence that "king-maker" Democratic senator Joe Manchin is against ending the filibuster, which would require difficult  bipartisan cooperation if new fiscal measures are to see the light of day. A look at a new basket of Chinese consumer stocks, soaring corn prices, oil, gold, patterns in FX and more. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro & Outro music by AShamaluevMusic

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