Saxo Market Call
Market goes vertical

Market goes vertical

October 15, 2021

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3vgcw2P   -

Today we look at an equity market that is in melt-up mode after key resistance fell away in major US equity indices and as tamed long US yields and a weak US dollar are adding fuel to the fire. We fail to see yields heading much lower still without indicating something rather ominous. Elsewhere, a breakdown of the movers and shakers in FX, Bunds over-correcting on growth downgrades for Germany (because of supply constraints, not weak demand), credit, and today's key data points - especially the inflation expectations part of the University of Michigan sentiment survey, which reveals interesting possible source of a seemingly strong economy with weak sentiment.  Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A possible key reversal day for markets

A possible key reversal day for markets

October 14, 2021

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3FEYmgp   -

Today we look at what could prove a key reversal day across  markets as the US CPI release and FOMC minutes failed to trigger significant unease and US long treasury yields actually headed lower after another strong treasury auction yesterday, this time of 30-year T-bonds. With US long yields reversing lower, risk sentiment got a significant boost and the USD was pushed sharply back lower, while the metals market has seized all of the attention in the commodities space. Also on the call, we look at JP Morgan earnings, what's on tap next as earnings season gets into full swing and whether the USD has  posted a major top. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US CPI, FOMC Minutes and Chinese PPI on tap

US CPI, FOMC Minutes and Chinese PPI on tap

October 13, 2021

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3aNeqi1   -

Today we look at the latest choppy session and the important day ahead, with the September US CPI print on tap later today, followed by the FOMC minutes as the Fed is set to taper at its next meeting, and then the important Chinese PPI up in Asia, an important global inflation benchmark. The oil market is still supported by natural gas prices at current levels and will watch the latest OPEC and IEA oil outlooks closely today. Copper, grains, GBP, Apple production woes on chip shortages, a look ahead at US financials and other companies report and more also on the call. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

This market still looks very complacent

This market still looks very complacent

October 12, 2021

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2X2cfne   -

Today we continue to outline our laundry list of concerns as the energy crunch continues its vice grip and as bonds are providing zero offsetting returns when equities come under pressure, and yet the VIX forward curve suggests ongoing complacency. We also look at yields and yield curves, which continue to suggest that markets don't believe central banks are at risk of making a policy mistake. In FX, we zoom in on the sterling outlook, while earnings season is heating up in the US, with an interesting company Fastenal reporting today.  Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Special Guest: Tor Svelland

Special Guest: Tor Svelland

October 11, 2021

This is a special edition podcast with Tor Svelland of Svelland Capital. Tor is a trader and investor in energy, shipping, commodities and related equities with a tremendously deep background in the space. In this interview, Tor takes us through the factors that are pressuring global commodity prices higher, particularly in energy, metals and shipping and takes us through the argument that prices will likely have to go much higher still to attract the kind of investment needed to raise production and carry out the desired transformation of our energy base. Hosting this must-listen interview are Ole Hansen and John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

It‘s getting very expensive out there

It‘s getting very expensive out there

October 11, 2021

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3AuW5Ao   -

Today we look at commodity inflation pressures dominating the agenda ahead of what could prove the most interesting earnings season in years as companies will have to discuss pressures on operations from ongoing supply chain disruptions and the risk of sustained prices rises in operational costs from energy prices and even wage and yield pressures. We also pick apart the US September jobs report, where the headline weak growith in payrolls does not reflect a weak jobs market, and where a fresh surge in average hourly earnings suggest wage pressures a rising. FX, the crude oil price impact on fertilizer and more discussed on the today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

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