Saxo Market Call

Today, a look at a massive comeback from further steep selling in US equities, establishing a critical line in the sand for the major indices and especially AI-adjacent names from here, effectively a bull-bear line. Elsewhere, Tesla demonstrated its new Roadster, which can both "fly" for an unknown number of seconds and "suck" itself to the road, allowing for beyond vertical adherence to a road surfaces and supposedly insane cornering abilities. Useful. More importantly, a deep-dive on the global oil picture and the troublesome Brent futures contract with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and so much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Elon Musk shows off the supposedly coming-in-2028 Tesla Roadster - an admittedly beautiful car with pointless and over-the-top suck and blow features.
• Robert Pape posts on the doubling of support for political violence in the US, with the anti-Trump respondents more in favour, though we wonder if that is because Trump happens to hold power.
• A Fox News poll puts government corruption at the top of the list of voters concerns, ahead of the inflation and the cost of healthcare. Not sure Trump has a good answer for that one.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a wild day for US treasuries as a hot US CPI print first pumps US treasury yields, only to see longer-dated yields end the day at the lowest level in weeks. The US dollar followed yields lower and the implication is that treasuries may be a safe haven again as in the days of yore, given that stocks were generally weak for the entire post-CPI episode yesterday. This and much more, including what is spooking this market and where to focus next as earnings season hits full stride next week. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• John's The FX Trader piece from today.
• I made an error on the podcast, it was not Michael Every himself but Every reposting a comical Luke Gromen X post asking whether this Fed will reflexively hike merely based on the direction of the oil price, in which case its monetary policy is in the hands of Iran and the IRGC.
• Coverage of China's treasury holdings and whether it is merely shifting these to custodian banks outside the US rather than reducing them materially.
• WSJ exclusive covers the Trump-Ukraine spat and wonders about the sequence of events leading to the shutdown of Ukraine's access to StarLink satellites.
• WSJ investigates on the weapons the US Space Force used in its decapitation assault on Venezuela's regime.
• For the astronomy nerds out there, an investigation based on new evidence of what dark matter is and what it isn't. Again, HT FTAlphaville.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today a look at signs of extreme tightening in credit concerns for a few key names even as stock and bond markets saw a quiet day and the general drift in credit conditions was only mildly negative. Also, a look at the first incoming US earnings reports and negative reception of some of the best numbers from Goldman Sachs. This and much more, especially on the many links below, on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• The Convexity Maven Harley Bassman is concerned about negative convexity for the longest US bonds. Don't understand? It's important stuff and worth trying to wrap your head around it.
• Paul Tudor Jones states his case on CNBC (audio only link) for ugly headwinds for US stocks in 2027.
• FT Exclusive covers Marine Le Pen's ambitions to transform and reduce the EU's powers - the coming election season and French debt situation are critical for the future of Europe. Round two will be the eventual German response if/when she becomes president next year.
• A WSJ article looks into whether China's population is over-reported to the tune of 130 million, with researchers using clever data gathering techniques.
• WSJ exclusive looks at bad behaviour by Republican Senate candidate for Texas Ken Paxton, who was filmed partying in Dubai with a mistress and not one, but two fugitives on the run from US criminal prosecution. 
• History of the crypto wars (right to make encrypted communication) and the risks of government authorities having back doors to everything that bad actors - and now especially AI - might be able to hack into as well. 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we look at yesterday's ugly session for tech and AI-related stocks, noting the follow on action once again in Asia overnight as well, all while the median stock was almost unchanged on the day. Elsewhere, we note US treasuries opening up heavily bid after the bank holiday and wonder whether US treasuries are suddenly serving their traditional role as a safe haven again. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• John's The FX Trader piece from yesterday.
• A WSJ long read looks at the risk of a lost generation in China on the weakening economy there.
• KKGB's 38-part thread that tries to pick apart the AI bull case, (you have to click around to find the entire thread).
• Reuters story looks at the US auto loan market, noting record high defaults and the extension of financing on very old cars. 
• A hilarious AI-generated parody of a "MarsX colony" on the red planet.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we look at the Russia diesel deal that will, spoiler alert, fail to meaningfully impact the supply situation for any length of time, but also consider the risk of a Ukraine-US rift. Elsewhere, macro traders are holding their breath for this Wednesday's US September CPI report, Palantir has just bolted to a new all time high and earnings season is set to kick off in earnest tomorrow. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Ole's latest rundown of the weekly US futures COT positioning report.
• Token prices are collapsing while GPU rents are steady at high levels - something doesn't add up.
• Could OpenAI and/or Anthropic be scheming to manipulate US authorities into giving them a bailout and oligopoly status by triggering a harmful hacking event? Here's a possible playbook for the conspiracy theorists.
• A geopolitical strategist says that all of the stress points globally are related and part of a wider war. Don't know what to make of his arguments, but worth considering.
• FT Big Read looks at Trump's struggle to maintain control of the Senate. If polling is accurate, he should lose both houses, but polling has been very inaccurate in many recent US election cycles. 
• One forced seller of US treasuries may stop selling soon - a look at the US mortgage bond market - it is big, as in, really big.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the sudden contagion across markets Thursday on the FT reporting that OpenAI's revenue run rate is supposedly lower than OpenAI has claimed, with subsequent analysis inconclusive because of the opacity of the data, allowing markets to largely come full circle from the reaction, but at the same time revealing the risk of market fragility should an important AI-linked company report something negative. Elsewhere, SpaceX is making waves in traditional telephony and earnings season is about to kick off. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• We often pass along plenty of links with skeptical takes on AI, but maybe we should balance out occasionally with more positive taks on potential for this wild AI spending to extend out over the horizon for years to come. Of course, if you would rather listen to uber-skeptic Ed Zitron, you can tune in here, here and here.
• UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham is in hot water after comments on the Manchester City FC case - not sure if this is existential for his status as the nation's leader, but a huge test.
• The Insider reports on Russia's drone that fortunately failed in August to detonate an aircraft (at a German airport) carrying ammunition bound for Ukraine.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we note the rather ugly risk off tone across markets, with strong Samsung and TSMC earnings reports received somewhat poorly by the market overnight in Asia. Europe is suffering another weak session even as the key US indices once again managed a resilient performance, but can they continue to do so with the worrisome backdrop? Also today, full coverage of the latest oil spike, EU's natural gas situation, sugar and gold and silver with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen. This and more on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Today's FT Big Read is on the leveraging up of hedge fund and semi-institutional players like Citadel and Jane Street and how these have become cash cows for the likes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. How risky is all that leverage?
• Another stab among many out there at how the AI bubble pops. Or will it be called the SI bubble at that point.
• World War II sugar rationing in UK provided a valuable experiment on the impact of sugar in the first years of life. Certainly looks like sugar is hazardous for your developmental health.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at Europe and the euro looking suddenly troubled again today as France continues to draw negative attention and Eurozone sovereign yield spreads have widened again today after France's Le Pen presented a long term budget plan on Tuesday. Elsewhere, sterling is charging higher against the single currency and Musk's net worth is back close to a trillion USD, chiefly on his SpaceX holdings. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Liaquat Ahamed has written a new book - I have it down as my next read: 1873: The First Great Depression and the Making of the Modern World. It could be a timely one to consider if the current investment binge ends up driving a similar outcome.
• Michael Burry recommended a paid substack with a deep-dive on Nvidia and its prospects.
• Don't know what to say about this other than to put it out there, but there has been some considerable speculation that Xi Jinping may be suffering from poor health.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.