Saxo Market Call
Volatility kicks into gear during historic Nasdaq 100 session

Volatility kicks into gear during historic Nasdaq 100 session

January 25, 2022

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KJWbug   -

Yesterday was a historic trading session in US technology stocks with Nasdaq 100 futures down 5% before rebounding 5.8% ending the entire session higher. Volatility measured by the VIX exploded higher reaching as much as almost 39 suggesting increased nervousness. We are still not near full capitulation so traders should stay on their toes. In today's podcast we also cover commodities which have had a more rough period due to the risk-off across markets, but Ole zooms in on two markets, gold and cotton, which are doing relatively well given the circumstances. Finally, we highlight stocks to watch including Ericsson that has delivered impressive Q4 figures and then we talk about earnings releases expected today with the main focus on Microsoft reporting Q4 earnings tonight after the market close. It is also today that the Saxo Strats release their Quarterly Outlook so watch out for the publication which covers the energy crisis and how traders and investors navigate it. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

It is not capitulation yet as markets remain nervous

It is not capitulation yet as markets remain nervous

January 24, 2022

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3tUoSiq   -

The VIX Index and the VIX forward curve is not displaying full capitulation yet in US equities so we cannot reject the possibility that equities could slide further, but in early European trading US equities are indeed attempting another rebound. The USDJPY has been sliding in recent weeks with risk-off in equities so if equities can stage a rebound watch out for this FX pair. The Ukraine-Russia tensions are also still lurking beneath the surface and could negatively impact European energy markets if if we see further escalation. On commodities we also talk about gold's resilience despite rising real yields and we also show how almost all of the important commodities remain in backwardation highlighting tight spot supplies. Finally, we go through which stocks to watch today and the most important earnings this week which will be the ultimate test. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US technology stocks enter correction territory

US technology stocks enter correction territory

January 21, 2022

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KpkMoh   -

Yesterday was a violent session with Nasdaq 100 futures up more than 2% before plunging below 15,000 into the close taking US technology stocks into correction territory. Several of the pandemic darlings have been hit hard recently with yesterday two most notable names being Peloton and Netflix. We also talk about the disappointing TIPS auction in the US and how negative real yields are still supportive of high yield credit. Althea also talks about the ECB Minutes and Bunds turning below 0% again. Despite equities being under pressure commodities are having a strong week with metals such as silver and platinum leading the gains. Finally, we talk about the energy crisis in Europe where traders are relieved over more LNG supplies to Northern European but turning wary over the situation between Ukraine and Russia. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Inflationary pressures continue to add havoc to equities

Inflationary pressures continue to add havoc to equities

January 20, 2022

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3tGLnae   -

Today we talk about Nasdaq 100 futures is touching its 200-day moving average in a critical moment for US technology stocks while the rest of the equity market is feeling the heat from inflationary pressures. Hang Seng futures are up 3.5% on the second rate cut by PBOC this year as Chinese policymakers are trying to smooth the ripples from the slowdown in the real estate sector. Gold is breaking up higher despite higher USD real yields and industrials metals are rallying on extremely tight supply and PBOC's rate cut. We also discuss December's PPI report from Germany showing a blistering change of 24% y/y driven by spikes in heating oil, electricity price, energy and mining. We round off the podcast with a discussion of stocks to watch today, earnings releases expected today with focus on Netflix, and the today's macro calendar. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Nasdaq 100 is hitting inflection point as US interest rates spike

Nasdaq 100 is hitting inflection point as US interest rates spike

January 19, 2022

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ryJA4q   -

Nasdaq 100 futures are continuing their slide today as the US 10-year yield is flirting with the 1.9% level. If the Nasdaq 100 breaks below the 200-day moving average sitting at 14,986 then we could see an extended selloff, so this is a key inflection point to watch today. Althea is talking about US monetary policy, today's US 20-year Treasury auction, and the Bund yield break higher above 0%. Ole is talking about gold and oil prices which are where the energy is in commodity markets, and Peter is commenting on Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard and earnings from ASML. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The cooker pressure is on amid higher oil prices and US interest rates

The cooker pressure is on amid higher oil prices and US interest rates

January 18, 2022

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/328l5lW   -

Higher Brent crude above $87/brl and the US 10-year yield firmly pushing above the 1.8% level is taking the energy level up a notch with Nasdaq 100 futures down 2% Market participants are clearly changing their guidance on inflation and a continuing to rotate out of high duration assets and into shorter term duration assets and inflation hedges such as energy assets. In today's podcast Althea go through the different tightening cycle this time compared to the previous one and Ole talks about oil markets, and gold's reaction to higher interest rates. Peter talks about the Q4 earnings season which really heats up next week but with three important earnings this week from ASML (tomorrow), Netflix (Thursday), and Schlumberger (Friday) Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

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