Saxo Market Call

Today, a run through the outlook for crude oil with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen as we face a key week ahead, given Iran's bid for a 7-day negotiation window with the US. More with Ole on natural gas, the El Niño status and impacts and gold. Elsewhere, a run through the macro and rates and the week ahead, together with interesting single stocks stories driving the market action yesterday. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Michael Every on the latest Macrovoices podcast, with a bit more granularity and bias on what may happen next than usual on Iran and Ukraine/Russia. 
• John's latest The FX Trader piece with thoughts on USDJPY and much more.
• FT focus piece on quantum computing and whether there is a path to profit for the technology.
• FT on UK & German exposure to Chinese economy, but leaving out in the title that the US is way up there with these two economies as well.
• FTAlphaville with a provocative headline: SpaceX pivots away from space. Whoa.
• TypeSafe AI has a new and cheaper AI model called Jev that is supposedly more efficient for software development than the tools from Anthropic and OpenAI and is getting massive attention.
• For the historians: was it iron that triggered the Bronze Age collapse because iron was a weapon of mass decentralization? Super interesting! 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we wonder how long markets can take any extension of the latest rather brutal sell-off in global bonds, which have taken the entire US yield curve from 5-years and out to new post-global financial crisis highs. Also, a look at the macro and FX reaction to bond market developments, the risk to macro trades if intervention is incoming at some point, and the three central bank meetings this morning. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• FTAlphaville passed along an archived The Verge article on Meta's latest big scramble to diversify its business model away from over-reliance on its core "social media" platforms with Muse and now the Muse Charm.
• Should we just stop? (Unplug from the social media and influencer rate race that no longer connects us in meaningful ways?). We probably should, but will we and how?
• Meanwhile, the AI data centre buildout is the largest single investment boom ever, as a percent of GDP, than the canal building, railroad and electrification infrastructure buildouts combined.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today - a look at how narrow the advance is in the US equity market that is taking the main indices close to their record highs and how this rhymes with past less-than-promising outcomes.. As well, we encourage market participants to keep bond yields and geopolitical headline risks on the radar - particularly for Europe if Trump announces an embargo on exporting diesel. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Some believe that Trump shouldn't and even really shouldn't announce a diesel export embargo 
• Beware bond holders and savers! Russell Napier is a must-listen on a long-form podcast on the coming financial repression as we move to build what must be built and do so while keeping governments funded.
• A Substack post on China's AI scene - very thorough.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we covered the breaking news of Iran's possible overture on opening the Hormuz Strait, followed by a breakdown of the market's strong risk-on reaction to news of strong demand for Meta's Muse personal AI assistant app, especially the cluster of stocks that rallied the most on the news. Elsewhere, a look at the state of play in FX and interest rates, geopolitical news flow and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Some color on the Meta-Amazon dispute, but you can do better if you want to understand the nature of the issue with an AI prompt like "How best to understand the nature of the Amazon-Meta dispute regarding the blocking of the Muse app and what is at stake in the big  picture for the two companies that lies adjacent to this issue."
• Wired magazine says that Meta's Muse is better at surveilling than at helping. Sounds about right if you use the Charlie Munger maxim "Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome." Just remember, for Meta, you are the product.
• A writer who uses AI for some writing tasks but not for most writing says that you should be very careful before allowing AI to write for you, which can turn people away from wanting to every wanting to read what you write again. (HT FTAlphaville.)
• Did the "last veil of Bank of England independence" just drop last Thursday? PML Macro thinks so. (HT FTAlphaville.)
• Taleb acolyte Spitznagel argues (once again) that we are in for one big burst higher before an absolutely massive wipeout. The important thing is to be prepared for either scenario.
• The German political situation is getting fraught, as covered by Eurointelligence.com (see September 18 post on "Goodbye CDU" - their posts not associated with specific URLs  - there was an earlier post about France "A messy turn for the French presidential race" as well.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today a look at equity market divergences in evidence on Friday as many stocks were lower, perhaps on the fresh rise in bond yields, while many large cap and momentum stocks did well on the day and are off to a strong start this week. Elsewhere, USDJPY is the critical focus in FX, there is plenty to discuss on the geopolitical front, both in terms of oil supply risks and the Trump-Xi summit set for Thursday and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• As we look at high petrol and record diesel prices in recent days, the WSJ covered the risk of a US refined product export embargo, how it would work and the potential price impacts.
• WSJ does a more than 30-minute deep dive on North Korea's secret US work force. Remarkable stuff.
• On the headlines trumpeting Saudi Arabia's quitting mBridge, China's cross-border currency platform, apparently there may far less of geopolitical import. Consider coverage on X from Endgame Macro and Luke Gromen as well as the most thorough take from Izabella Kaminska. 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the steep JPY sell-off post Bank of Japan rate hike as the market was gunning for a firmer commitment to BoJ hiking and a stronger US dollar was already weighing in the background. Also, the BoE surprised slightly dovishly but moved to stabilize the long end of the UK yield curve. Also, we look at the pivotal situation for US stocks as we navigate triple witching ahead of next week's action. This and more on today's podcast, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy

Links

• John's latest The FX Trader piece looking at the Bank of Japan reaction, Bank of England meeting and USDJPY technicals.
• The Real Eisman Playbook podcast poo-poohs the idea that AI security concerns are the real driver of Anthropic's call for a "slowdown". 
• And FTAlphaville is out joining the dots with its latest AI cross-commitment diagram showing how all of the AI companies financing is interconnected.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the hawkish FOMC meeting yesterday, especially Fed Chair Warsh's positioning of the rate hike yesterday as merely removing accommodation, together with the sharp market reaction that has been surprisingly quick to unwind in places. Is this in respect of the incoming BoJ, the deflation of oil prices or because we are entering a new pivot zone for interest rates and possibly the US dollar? This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Meta's Zuckerberg isn't for the AI slowdown, prefers "evaluators"
• DeepQuarry questions Anthropic's pre-IPO claims of its profitability (first portion of post available for free)

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a remarkably resilient equity market even as the fresh spike in oil prices weigh and global bond yields have rushed to new highs for the cycle in many key markets. Looking at US equity market internals, the impact of Anthropic CEO Amodei's call for a "slowdown" in AI development (and perhaps Trump's aggressive poo-pooing of the idea) seems a more important factor for this market, as key AI hardware names sold off and many software-as-a-service companies rallied steeply on the day. Lots more on today's pod on commodities with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and on macro and FX and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

A great LinkedIn post from Felix Martin (HT to the great Izabella Kaminska) with a round-up of other links to the debate on open-source (usually really open-weight) versus closed source AI models - not necessarily drawing the same conclusion that the market drew from Anthropic's "slowdown" call. One of the better links was to a Toby Nangle FT column on the open-source threat to hyperscalers as well.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.