Saxo Market Call

Today's pod offers a brief market wrap on the big shift higher in US treasury yields and the impact on the US dollar, metals and crypto and whether yields can continue higher, noting the important event risks incoming next week. But the main event in today's episode is a long-form conversation with a great friend of the podcast, Peter Garnry of Gesda Capital. We covered the Nvidia situation, the company's importance for the AI trade, broader thoughts on the status of the AI space and where the value creation lies and much much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• The Softbank story on writedowns linked to AI data center spending.
• You can find Peter Garnry on LinkedIn.
• The Gesda Capital research Substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at yesterday's strong and stunning US equity market comeback as we try to determine whether we should take this as a positive signal for the remainder of the year or retain a bit of caution at the two-way tantrums that have just been unleashed over the last three trading days. With Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen we cover the outlook and drivers for the oil market, precious metals, copper and grains. Also, we look into the risks linked to the Nvidia scandal, the latest on macro and FX and much more. Today's host is Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• An exchange on X between Arnaud Bertrand and others on the spygate scandal with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. It's important to ask the "why did this happen?" question in the Jensen Huang case if it the story wasn't leaked from US intelligence from mere ineptitude.  
• Some people are wildly bullish on the space economy and AI, even predicting self assembly of tech in orbit from space debris.  
• CNBC on the odd uptick in the long-term unemployed in the US - this deserves tracking and we need a deeper explanation.
• WSJ on Elizabeth Warren's coming power as the head of the powerful US Senate Banking Committee - the power to initiate hearings and issue subpoenas, for example.
• A long-form interview with Louis Vincent Gave, which includes the argument that Europe should embrace the deflation coming from China. Somehow I don't think that is how this is going to play out.

 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options

 

Today, we assess the comeback in the AI trade on Friday and ongoing market divergences, while wondering how much Nvidia CEO Huang's affair with a Chinese intelligence operative might impact Nvidia besides Huang personally. Also, we note he market's rather dismissive reaction to a strong US job report Friday, perhaps as tomorrow's CPI number weighs more. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Culper Research, a short selling outfit we have never come across before, is out declaring that Nvidia is a short on its "China Problem".
• The big, post-mid-term elections President Trump interview with one of the more careful and thoughtful interviewers out there Ross Douthat. (BTW, Douthat wrote an incredible book that resonated with me called The Decadent Society. 
• Michael Every on Macrovoices.com, slightly updated now that we are post-US mid-term elections, but riffing on many of the same things he always discusses, which are certainly worth keeping in frame.
• Someone with very thoughtful comments on the Peter Principle with links to further reading - one for those of you in large organizations.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options

 

Today, a look at yesterday's historic meltdown in US equities, which broadened out to the almost all sectors in addition to the ground zero of the AI trade. We look at new developments in intermarket dynamics on this move as well, especially in currencies as the US dollar finally came alive as a safe haven as in the days of yore. This and much more on post-election thoughts from the pod host, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Saxo Bank John J. Hardy.

Links

• This is hilarious - all of the hyperbillionaires set to sing "We were always blue"? Warning - obvious deepfake, if only for entertainment purposes.
• John's The FX Trader from today.
• What might Trump be up to over the last two years of his presidency after the drubbing he got in the mid-terms? Let's hope he won't behave like this. 
• Hedge fund manager Harris Kupperman on how to find outlier investment ideas.
• Could ChatGPT have been decisive in this election? An intriguing possibility with profound implications for the politics if so!

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options

Today, we look at the remarkable US equity market session yesterday, as the market fears that the Democratic mid-term sweep will slow the pace of data centre buildouts, sending data center infrastructure and chip companies into a tailspin even as the broader market rallied steeply. How durable is this trade? Also, further thoughts on the implications of the US mid-terms, macro and FX developments and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• The FT looks at the slate of candidates most likely to jostle to the front for a 2028 US Presidential Election run.
• Lee Hepner breaks down the historic mid-term election, arguing what it was and what it wasn't while pulling out some interesting subplots and specific developments.
• Michael Every says beware of drawing too many conclusions on the direction the Iran conflict may take from here based on the post mid-term election vibe shift in energy markets.
• Brent Johnson takes the view that this election won't change the march of history towards... What exactly? A great American empire not democratic republic? Is that what we are supposed to infer from the ancient Rome timeline.
• By the way, speaking of ancient Rome's march to empire, the Marius and Sulla episode on the great The Rest is History podcast is riveting stuff. 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options

Today we look at the massive rebuke of Trump and the Republicans across the US as the Senate, House and Governors' races across the nation tilted far more strongly to the Democrats than almost anyone was prognosticating. We note how the market is absorbing the news and look at what matters next for markets and how they will interact with the coming political cycle as well as the immediate aftermath of this historic election. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

A brief, last minute podcast in which we drastically lower our conviction level on the strong blue wave scenario for the US mid-term elections after listening to a very interesting podcast suggesting, based on plausible analysis, that the polls give us no idea of what may happen and that the Republicans could even retain the house. 

Link: The Grant Williams Podcast interviewing Marvin Barth on the midterm elections. Excellent questions from the host.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a last minute look at the odds shift in the US mid-term elections and whether we are facing a blue wave or even a "blue tsunami" in favour of the Democrats. We also put the magnifying class to the notion that the US mid-term elections are a good time to put money to work in the US stock market. Elsewhere, we dive into yesterday's wild market internals, the somewhat less wild macro and FX backdrop and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Lawrence Lepard on the Thoughtful Money podcast lays out the basic playbook for the next great intervention and the bullish case for precious metals.
• Craig Tindale with his latest long form piece on a supposed US plan to revalue its gold holdings and pass the value bump on to the treasury, a first step in a profound transformation to revalue the Treasury's debt.
• The FT on Donald Trump's imperial presidency facing a popular uprising. The writer uses a wonderful metaphor of the embattled US President facing his "Captain Queeg moment" If you don't know the reference, it refers to the wonderful book (and great film with Humphrey Bogart) The Caine Mutiny, by Herman Wouk.
• Nate Silver suggests considerable odds of a Blue Tsunami scenario for the US mid-terms..
• If you are wondering what is going on in Poland, here is a piece with a lot of educational background.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.