Saxo Market Call
Bad news is good news as the Fed pivot is alive

Bad news is good news as the Fed pivot is alive

November 24, 2022

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XoM193   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -  

Today we look at the market continuing to rally despite US Services PMI figures for November missed estimates suggesting the US economy continues to slow down. This means that equities right now interpret bad news as good news because it will force the Fed to pivot on the policy rate which will be net positive for equities. We also discuss expected PBOC easing, Riksbank's expected 75 basis point hike today, and the weakening USD helping financial conditions to ease globally. In commodities, our focus today is the energy market with Europe's gas market holding up well despite low volumes coming from Russia. Finally, we talk Deere earnings as the US agricultural equipment maker is delivering strong results as pricing power remain high on the back of high commodity prices on agricultural products. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Financial conditions continue to ease: any Fed pushback?

Financial conditions continue to ease: any Fed pushback?

November 23, 2022

Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3EyxcrO   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -  

Today we look at the market bouncing back strongly yesterday as we await a data dump from the US today ahead of the long Thanksgiving weekend there. While the focus from the Fed is on how the FOMC delivers its "deceleration of tightening" message, it is worth noting that financial conditions are close to their easiest since the Fed began hiking in 75 basis point increments back in June. Will this receive any comments in the FOMC minutes release tonight? We also look at leading indicators pointing to an incoming recession, talk crude oil, copper and wheat, the RBNZ hiking 75 basis points overnight, stocks to watch and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Crypto and Tesla bubbleverse under siege

Crypto and Tesla bubbleverse under siege

November 22, 2022

Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3EwDBDI   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -  

Today we look at the latest downbeat action in the equity market as we still await a more determined directional move after the multi-sigma upside explosion in the wake of the November 10 US CPI release. But it is interesting to note that the speculative nexus around crypto and Tesla are under intense pressure here and could prove a broader catalyst. We also look at the latest impact of rising Covid cases on commodities, the zany dump and pump yesterday in crude oil, the earnings and macro calendar ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Zero Covid threat refuses to go away

Zero Covid threat refuses to go away

November 21, 2022

Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3Vd3jnt   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -  

Today we look at downbeat sentiment on the latest concern that the reopening trade in China isn't going to happen any time soon with the first official deaths from Covid there in months reported. Elsewhere, we look at tight inverse correlation between risk sentiment and the US dollar and positioning in the US FX futures market, the holiday-shortened week in the US, gold, copper & crude oil, incoming earnings including Dell and Zoom Video, the macro calendar for this week (including the US Thanksgiving holiday) and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Massive Op-Ex today: maybe meh now, but maybe mayhem another time

Massive Op-Ex today: maybe meh now, but maybe mayhem another time

November 18, 2022

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GrdFvO    -

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -  

Today we look through key markets for the technical lay of the land, from the US and German equity markets to gold, US yields. We also note a very heavy crude oil market, with cycle support possibly coming into play in the days ahead. Elsewhere, we dive into some examples of the enormous rise in options trading and note the background risk this brings to the market, regardless of whether today's massive options expiry in the US on over $2 trillion in underlying assets proves a non-event. Today's pod features Saxo Technical Strategist Kim Cramer Larsson, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Could weather be the next major trigger?

Could weather be the next major trigger?

November 17, 2022

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3URcx9q   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -  

Today we look at risk sentiment taking a breather after a particularly strong US October US Retail Sales report, although long US treasury yields fell on the day and took the yield curve inversion to its most negative in over forty years as markets continue to price a recession ahead. The key incoming data doesn't start rolling in for another couple of weeks, so we wonder if a possible shift in weather into proper winter mode could change the complacent stance in energy markets. Elsewhere, we wonder if the Budget Statement from UK Chancellor Hunt can continue to support sterling, look at the plunge in coffee prices, Nvidia and Siemens earnings, and more. Today's podfeatures Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

 

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