Saxo Market Call
Special Edition: Brent Donnelly of Spectramarkets

Special Edition: Brent Donnelly of Spectramarkets

November 25, 2021

This special episode features a conversation on all things trading with Brent Donnelly, a veteran trader and writer, now with Spectramarkets.com. Brent has more than 25 years of experience trading currencies and other assets with major international investment banks and hedge funds. Brent is a gifted writer who pens daily market thoughts on FX and macro with spectramarkets.com, peppered with insightful comments on market movements and ideas for what may happen next. He has also authored two books, The Art of Currency Trading and Alpha Trader, which offer traders of all levels a roadmap for what successful trading looks like, never shying from describing the hard work that is necessary on all levels, from trader mindset, behavior and money management, to the fundamental and technical expertise.

  • Link to Brent's daily macro letter at spectramarkets.com.
  • Find Brent's two books at your favorite bookseller: The Art of Currency Trading (2019) and Alpha Trader: the Mindset, Methodology and Mathematics of Professional Trading (2021)

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Temporary relief as dark clouds are gathering

Temporary relief as dark clouds are gathering

November 25, 2021

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xnws4L   -

Yesterday's reversal in the US 10-year yield due to less bad than feared PCE core inflation for October caused a relief rally in equities and especially technology and bubble stocks. However, as we note today a big change has happened inside the Fed with a less focus going forward on employment and more on inflation to protect US households. The market is adjusting its expectations for rate hikes next year to almost three suggesting 2022 will be a very different year from the previous two years. On commodities we discuss the upcoming OPEC+ reaction to the recent Biden administration release of strategic oil reserves to ease the pain from higher oil prices. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and Peter Garnry hosting and on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The unbearable sensitivity to rising yields

The unbearable sensitivity to rising yields

November 24, 2021

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/32om7Kl   -

Today we try to quantify and illustrate the equity markets most sensitive to rises in long yields, i.e., duration sensitivity, noting particularly chunky declines in the most duration sensitive markets yesterday. As well, a look at the "buy the fact" reaction to the US release of strategic oil reserves, key FX stories, including the RBNZ proving less hawkish than the market hoped and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A climax reversal for equities after Powell gets nod for a second term

A climax reversal for equities after Powell gets nod for a second term

November 23, 2021

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3FHnphQ   -

Today we look at the market reaction to US President Biden giving Fed Chair Powell teh nod for a second term, while promoting Lael Brainard to Vice Chair. The most interesting reactions were in the US yield curve as a faster pace of Fed tightening was priced  in for next year, but also in the US equity market, which experienced a climax reversal back lower after an initial surge higher in the wake of the Powell nomination news. Elsewhere, oil set for an interesting test as Biden may be set  to announce a release . And in sovereign  bond markets, besides the US treasury focus after the news yesterday, focus is also on Europe as we may be set for a German government coalition announcement as Italian risks also weigh on President Mattarella's imminent resignation. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US Thanksgiving week features key Wednesday event risks

US Thanksgiving week features key Wednesday event risks

November 22, 2021

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2Z9fkTx   -

Today we look at the lay of the equity market coming into this week, where we continue to note considerable market  divergences, recapping the points from Friday, including the narrow market rally. We also look at whether credit spreads for high yield corporates are finally starting to deserve some attention. Focus in commodities on oil and especially gold this week as it is do-or-die time for bullish newcomers after the recent rally spike. The week ahead is a short one for US-based traders, with the Fed Chair nomination issue hanging over the market and the two key event risks for the week up on Wednesday, just before the long holiday weekend there. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Special Edition: The big picture w/ Steen Jakobsen

Special Edition: The big picture w/ Steen Jakobsen

November 19, 2021

This special edition of the Saxo Market Call podcast is a long-form chat with Steen Jakobsen, Saxo's Chief Economist and CIO, who takes us through what makes him uneasy about the market today and where it is trading and current narratives relative to what likely awaits in terms of inflation and real growth outcomes down the road.  The Fed's policy mistake, FX themes, dysfunction in Europe and more are addressed in the conversation with Steen and host John J. Hardy. 

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

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