Saxo Market Call

Are markets too calm? Will FOMC play ball with market expectations?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3yVYfei   -

Today we look at the eerie calm across markets after the two consecutive weekend interventions to deal with systemic risks from failing banks. We also discuss whether the FOMC will be willing to market its forecasts anywhere near where market expectations have shifted in its forward guidance at tomorrow's meeting, look at copper, natural gas and platinum, stocks to watch, including Amazon, where we wonder if activist investors could soon make an appearance and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Weekend Credit Suisse deal unsettles markets on debt wipeout.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3n7RIdy   -

Today we look at the weekend's shotgun wedding arranged by the SNB that sees UBS taking over Credit Suisse with a number of liquidity guarantees and a massive eyebrow-raising wipeout of Credit Suisse's Tier1 debt. That last move has markets unsettled on the implications as it breaks the assumed rules of engagement for bankruptcies, putting bank debt and bank shares under heavy pressure this morning.  We also look at what the Fed may do on Wednesday after the crazy repricing of the yield curve, the week ahead for equity earnings and macro event risks and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market sees a glass that is half full of liquidity for now.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42mi0sE   -

Today we note the strong comeback in sentiment yesterday after an initial dip on the ECB moving ahead with a 50 basis point hike that surprised many and was initially read as a possible policy mistake. An injection of cash into troubled lender First Republic Bank in the US by peers in the banking industry was also behind some of the brightening in sentiment yesterday. We talk through the difficulty in interpreting market signals here when the first move in a shock is simply to reverse prior trends, something that doesn't always add information value. We also look at positive versus negative interpretations of the backdrop, action in key commodities and the earnings and macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Credit Suisse gets lifeline. ECB faces unenviable task today.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3FuIoXD   -

Today we continue to highlight the tremendous volatility in asset markets, particularly bonds, on the bank-centered turmoil and wonder whether the extension of a lifeline by the Swiss National Bank to Credit Suisse will provide any calm beyond the immediate relief that the latest weakest link isn't set to break. We also look at the ECB's impossible task at its meeting today as it juggles concerns with financial stability and its formerly most-hawkish guidance, we note the turmoil slipping into the commodity markets and much more. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Nervous calm doesn’t feel very stable here

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3lddufp   -

Today we look at the market's attempt to piece together some calm after the sudden trauma and lightning official response/bailout of depositors after the SVB bankruptcy. We highlight the need for more time to assess the fallout, continuing to note the longer term risks to credit transmission if recent events have served as a wake-up call for depositors, who have yet to demand higher returns on their savings. A look at earnings and macro data on watch through next week's FOMC meeting as well. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Careening toward a credit crunch?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/404Z6Vj   -

Still very early days, as we ponder the ongoing fallout from the turmoil in the US banking system, which has triggered a massive collapse in yields as the market brings forward the end of the Fed's tightening cycle. One significant danger is that we risk a credit crunch as banks are forced to scramble for funding and deposits. We highlight areas and indicators that are flashing red, the impact of the situation into currencies, precious metals, and equity sectors. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

SVB fallout: Nobody knows what will happen next

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ZFKGew   -

We follow up on Friday's big event with SVB Financial failing as a financial institution which set in motion a US government backstop of uninsured deposits over the weekend which extended to Signature Bank which was also taken over by the US government yesterday. We focus on the market reaction across equities, US bonds, interbank spreads, and gold with our main message being that nobody knows what will happen next. It is all one big guessing this week on fallout from the failure of SVB Financial. Today's pod features Peter Garnry and Ole S. Hansen.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A warning shot has been fired

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Li0Ne9   -

Markets got big jolt yesterday when Silvergate Capital announced a liquidation of the bank that has suffered from the implosion in cryptocurrencies. The event cascaded into SVB Financial (Silicon Valley Bank) plunging 60% in the main session and another 20% in extended trading as the bank has been forced to sell bonds at great losses. These moves cascaded further into other banking stocks and led equity futures lower in Asian and European trading. JD.com also announced a weaker than expected Q1 revenue outlook saying the Chinese consumer is weaker than estimated and that the extended lockdown has impacted behaviour. In today's podcast we go through the implications of the SVB Financial fallout and what it means for markets moves and especially with the large trading volumes in zero-day-to-expiry (0DTE) options. We also cover the JPY following the BoJ meeting and the moves in CHF on banking risk-off. Finally, we cover Fed Funds pricing, gold and other commodities, and next week's earnings releases which will focus on Volkswagen, BMW, Adobe, and Lennar. A warning shot has been fired yesterday. Be vigilant on risks today and stay safe. Today's pod features Steen Jakobsen, Peter Garnry, and Ole S. Hansen.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic