Saxo Market Call

Today, a look at markets testing the lows again yesterday, but trying to put in a rally ahead of a huge market event tomorrow that could define where this market heads next in what could prove an either-or moment. Elsewhere, interesting market reaction to Oracle's earnings report after the close, and super-critical support levels have come into play for the gold price, which faces its own either-or moment technically and thematically as the USD remains strong. Lots more on macro and FX and more in today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• In "The abundance illusion" noted oil industry analyst Jeff Currie notes the risks the oil market (and the wider global economy) faces this summer as seasonal demand rises inexorably while oil has yet to begin meaningfully flowing through the strait of Hormuz again. Also, he notes China's "New Joule Order" which has its own tremendous implications as the country puts its energy system resilience on display.
• HT to FTAlphaville for another great link today, this one to a Kardamow substack article that discusses the same concerns Currie discusses in the above link, with some more data specifics.
• An FT Article looks at US attempts to piece together a "dark transit" system for oil tankers to transit the Hormuz Strait via a narrow and risk shipping lane that hugs the Omani coast.
• Stratechery.com has a much more positive take on Apple's AI strategy with Siri than the market's very negative assessment in recent days, in a piece it calls The iPhone's Last Stand.
• This year's Microsoft Build conference is seeing the company's Project Solara announcement, the company's attempt to envision a new operating system and network of new devices, among other things, aimed at addressing the transition to the agentic AI era. The Verge discusses this as well as Microsoft's broader AI strategy.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at what the further acceleration in US- and other market volatility means, particularly for the highly speculative chip stocks that have seen the greatest gains this year, even on a day when the broader market and median stock closed in the green. Elsewhere, gold is melting down and faces a critical support level soon if the selling continues. This and much more on macro and FX also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Today's only link is to an excellent FT op-ed "Why are we still arguing about the Industrial revolution?" that complains about the attempt to use poor quality 19th century data that provides few insights on how the Industrial Revolution transformed society and the types of available jobs as we attempt to anticipate how AI will transform our current society and the job market. Instead, we should consult the best fiction writers of the time, who provide excellent qualitative documentation of the impact of the industrial revolution. 

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

 

Today, a look at the market trying to continue its bounce-back from Friday's meltdown in especially chip stocks, interesting news flow on the AI data center financing front, lots on macro and FX and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Today's The FX Trader from John
• The great Izabella Kaminska with second order thinking in an X post on the possible signal from China's ability to crater its oil imports.
• "Is the iPhone birth control?", asks an academic paper FTAlphaville links to, which is a study linking the launch of the iPhone in the US with lower fertility. Now imagine what widespread immersive AI will do...

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

 

 

 

Today, putting Friday's big market sell-off in perspective as an overdue development after the huge recent ramp in high momentum stocks. Broader risk sentiment remains fairly calm, though there is a bit of stress from geopolitics and higher oil prices, as well as on crypto and from a stronger US dollar and higher US treasury yields. Lots to focus on this week and next with the incoming earnings of note and the first Fed meeting led by Fed Chair Warsh next week. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we look at fresh blow-out enthusiasm for a major tech name reporting strong earnings that blasted its stock into the stratosphere after hours yesterday. We also note the bevy of interesting tech names reporting next week, run through some macro and FX observations, note the key technical hold in gold, the shifting forward curve in crude oil and more. Regarding today's episode title, consider Saxo's outrageous prediction for this year regarding the SpaceX IPO and one of the main things - or perhaps the main thing - Elon Musk hopes to achieve in going to Mars (link below). Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• We took a stab at predicting the scale of the SpaceX IPO  (undershooting badly!) and some of the true reasons for Elon Musk's passion for going to Mars in the Saxo Outrageous Predictions for 2026 released late last year.
• The Register discussed Salesforce' "waving bye-bye" to its User Interface as it opens up its data to a trillion API calls from other platforms, including increasingly Anthropic  via its Headless 360, a programmable agent platform.
• The constantly shade-throwing Futurism (ironically a bit Luddite at times) with an article questioning whether CEO's are suffering from AI psychosis as they are out of touch with the struggle for AI to get traction at ground level in their organisations.
• Is AI making some people feel and act dangerously over-competent and what are the risks if so? (HT FTAlphaville)

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

 

Today, we note the very different outcomes for the two admittedly very different software names Salesforce and Snowflake as both reported earnings after the close yesterday. Elsewhere, insane volatility for Marvell in yesterday's session ahead of its own earnings report after the close - are the wheels coming off a bit here for chip names.  Also, Gold needs to take a stand here or else, plenty on macro and FX and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Michael Burry points out that VC has gone whole hog in AI, similar to the situation in 2000 with TMT bubble.
• Acquired put out a four-hour episode on the fascinating history and phenomenon that is Ferrari - these guys are great. 
• FT with an exclusive on Ukraine turning the tables in its war with Russia - amazing innovation and rates of production for their at least partially homegrown tech.
• Stratechery with a brief discussion (paywall) of the SpaceX IPO, both quite dismissive in some ways, but also surprisingly supportive of the idea that space-based data centres could be a thing.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

 

Today's John J. Hardy substack (and yes, embarrassing bad math from your host in today's podcast)

Today, we try to keep observations balanced as we observe the latest race higher in memory chip makers after a big bank posted a jaw-dropping price target for Micron. This helped pull the broader market higher, as did the recent drop in crude oil prices. Elsewhere, we look at Ferrari's stumble with its new EV, note today's important earnings calendar, break down the latest in macro and FX and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at quantum computing stocks getting a big bump on public investments in the space in the US. Elsewhere, it remains all about AI stocks pumping higher, while one notable software-as-a-service (Saas) name was the S&P 500 index's worst performer yesterday. Interesting earnings reports are up next week on both the chip and the SaaS front. Also, some more macro and FX observations and concerns that we are none the wiser on the Iran War ahead of a long weekend for US markets. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Blonde Money is worth a follow, particularly recently on the UK political situation.
• Passive investing might blow up the stock market once it has become too dominant, at least according to models. The discussion is rambling, but some great nuggets in there.
• The valuation maestro Aswath Damodaran puts together the case for a SpaceX valuation of USD 1.2 trillion.
• Nasdaq bending over backwards to secure the SpaceX listing will guarantee enormous passive allocations to the company very early on, whatever its general level of financial success.
• Peter Garnry of Gesda Capital has his own assessment of SpaceX after the drop of its pre-IPO S-1 filings. Worth a read.
• And the public domain shy Albert Edwards made an appearance on the Odd Lots podcast, talking the risk of double-digit inflation and the general mayhem that he often sees right around the corner. Always worth listening to, if not for any well-timed market call.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.