Saxo Market Call

Chinese equity rebound boosts global sentiment, even as we remain in defensive stance

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3yDBdWF   -

Today we look at the Chinese rebound overnight and note the terrible relative performance this month and for the year-to-date for China relative to India, which is not plagued by the same regulatory uncertainties. But we continue to wax very cautious on the very extended US market even if we are unable to see any specific negative catalyst on the horizon. Thoughts on the German and French elections,  EU sovereign bonds after a yield jump yesterday, FX, defense stocks now that US President Biden has declared the US done with nation-building and more on the pod today, which features Christopher Dembik on macro, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Equities accelerate beyond trend, not always a good thing

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2WyUb46   - 

Today we note the acceleration in the equity market beyond the trend established since the spring and look back at a couple of prior episodes in which this quickly resolved into a much more volatile and two-way market. We also look at fresh pain in Chinese equities, the US treasury reaction function around the US economic data this week, developments in EU sovereign bonds, energy, metals and FX markets and much more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Powell waxes maximum dovish at Jackson Hole, but how long will it matter?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3sVksoW  - 

Today we look at Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, at which he waxed about as dovish as was humanly possible in laying out the Fed's case that inflation will prove transitory. We challenge that notion and question whether the market reaction on the back of the speech will stick beyond the nearest term when we look at how Q4 may shape up for the US treasury market. A look at earnings this week, Hurricane Ida concerns, highlights of the busy economic calendar for the week ahead and more are also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Novel approach to hedging downside risk.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2UWYqpi   -

Today we look at the modest market stumble in the wake of terror attacks in Kabul and ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech at the virtual Jackson Hole symposium later today, where we expect the Fed will prove more "hawkish", even if only between the lines, than this rather complacent market expects. Speaking of complacency, we offer new thoughts on novel ways to potentially hedge for a market downturn without inducing heavily negative carry costs, breakdown the latest on US treasuries and T-bills showing signs of nervousness on the upcoming debt ceiling and more.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Sector-picking the Chinese market. Yields on the move ahead of JH.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3DijyYg   -

Today we look at sovereign yields suddenly on the move again ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech tomorrow, particularly in Europe yesterday in the wake of ECB comments on the potential for improved forecasts at their upcoming meetings. We also look at Chinese equities and focus on where the safer corners of that market may be due to the regulatory focus there. Elsewhere, a look at Natural Gas, fizzling gold prices, FX finely balanced ahead of the Powell speech tomorrow, earnings and more.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Danger lurks beneath the too-tranquil surface

Today's slide deck:    https://bit.ly/3jfyqPi   -

Today we look at whether in relative terms at the very least, the market may have overdone the recent allocation away from China, as the strong rally there this week suggests. Elsewhere, we suggest that the recent sharp bounce-back in US equities is not necessarily a sign of market health if the "wrong" factors have driven the rally. Also on the call, a look at treasury issuance dynamics as we head into the danger zone on a possible debt ceiling showdown in coming weeks, the outlook for crude oil and more.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market rips higher on, well, what exactly?

Today's slide deck:   https://bit.ly/3B5iwgd   -

Today we look at the steep market comeback yesterday, in part stoked by a sharp recovery in sentiment in China, but the sources of the sharp upside in the US are a bit murky and may have been aggravated by thin liquidity. Today we delve into the treasury market outlook around Jackson Hole, thoughts on whether German Bunds are near their absolute low potential, the massive crude oil bounce from an important support level, gold, long term perspective on EM valuations, earnings round-up for this week and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Dip buyers on the rampage as we head for Jackson Hole

Today's slide deck:   https://bit.ly/386pgy8   -

Today we look at the strong finish to last week that saw yet another successful buy-the-dip impulse, even if there are signs of considerable divergence. Also on the agenda today, a look at the weakening credit impulse in both the US and China and the forward implications for growth headwinds, the remarkably volatile German election polling as we enter the final month before the general election there and much more. Today's pod features Christopher Dembik on macro and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic