Saxo Market Call

The calm before the storm as markets await US CPI figures

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/3fO52gR   -

Today we talk about equities treading water ahead of tomorrow's important US CPI figures that will show whether inflation is more sticky than earlier expected by the market. The US 10-year yield is holding the line above the 1.31% level and gold has stabilised after its turbulent start to the week yesterday. We also talk rising European electricity prices and coal consumption and the newly released UN climate report. On earnings we talk about yesterday's earnings from Barrick Gold and BioNTech, and touches a bit on today's earnings from SoftBank Group showing that the large Japanese technology investors have ended its investments in Facebook, Microsoft, Netflix, and Alphabet. On today's podcast are Ole S. Hansen on commodities and hosting Peter Garnry on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Are investors ready for a critical week as China PPI flashes red alert?

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/2VGOmkg   -

Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday surprised the market given the weak lead in from ADP on Wednesday. US interest rates shot higher denting US technology stocks while the broader market measured by the S&P 500 crushed higher. In other words, the value vs growth bet and interest rate sensitivity are back in town. Gold was knocked over by the jobs report closing lower on Friday and with thin liquidity in Asia and nervous gold traders the spot experienced a flash crash and a decline of 4.2% over little more than an hour. In today's podcast we also talk about this week's important US CPI report on Wednesday which together with the jobs report could make Jackson Hole later this month a pivotal moment in the post pandemic world. On today's podcast are Ole S. Hansen on commodities and hosting Peter Garnry on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Will Nonfarm Payrolls confirm a turnaround in US yields?

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/3CkYLTq   -

Today we talk about the new all-time highs in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 and to what extent the rally can continue into the weekend depending on the outcome of today's US Nonfarm Payrolls release. The Chinese technology crackdown continues  this morning with further sharp declines in Kuaishou Technology as China's leading newspaper argues for more regulation of content dissemination and Alibaba warns investors of higher taxes. We also talk coffee and sugar that are still trading at elevated levels with sugar being one of the best performing commodities this week. The ongoing chip shortage is impacting car production and thus also the demand for platinum which we also debate. Finally, we look ahead at next week's macro figures and earnings releases. On today's podcast are Ole S. Hansen on commodities and hosting Peter Garnry on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Were ISM Services and Clarida the turning point in US yields?

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/3jmWQFb   -

Yesterday's session proved a bit of a rollercoaster with initially a bad ADP employment number but then later ISM Services Index showed record strong US services. Fed's Clarida (FOMC voter) also outlined his views that inflation will stay above target for the next three years with upside risks and that a rate hike in early 2023 is not unlikely. These events turned markets around with the USD higher against the EUR and JPY. The US 10-year yield seems to have bottomed for now pushing higher today. We also discuss Chinese technology stocks, natural gas prices in the US, gold and US earnings from yesterday and finally today's earnings. On today's podcast are Ole S. Hansen on commodities and hosting Peter Garnry on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Chinese rebound in equities greases the wheels of risk-on

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/3ltKeir   -

Today we discuss the bounce back in Chinese equities driven by today by a new health initiative in China despite Alibaba weaker than expected earnings yesterday and the increasing concerns over Covid19 Delta variant outbreaks in the country leading to potential downgrades on economic growth. These concerns over growth continues to weigh on oil prices, but elsewhere in the commodity sector prices are rallying such as natural gas prices in Europe and Japan. We also talk about wheat and gold's lack of reactions to anything at the moment. Overnight New Zealand surprised to the upside on employment which we cover together with more momentum in AUDUSD. Finally, we talk recent earnings releases and what to expect today. On today's podcast are Ole S. Hansen on commodities and hosting Peter Garnry on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Growth concerns put a dent on markets

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/3yljBQl   -

Today we discuss the dramatic decline in Tencent shares as a Chinese newspaper is hinting that gaming could be the next target of China's crackdown on the technology sector. We also take a look at the shipping industry and Maersk's recent profit guidance. Finally on equities we discuss earnings from BMW and Infineon Technologies. On commodities we touch on gold lack of reaction to new low in US real yields, oil demand and the Delta variant, and finally the positive roll yield observed across more and more commodities. On today's podcast are Ole S. Hansen on commodities and hosting Peter Garnry on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Equities race higher despite softer China PMI figure

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/3fkWmhU   -

Despite softer China PMI Manufacturing overnight global equities are off to a good start with the biggest story being Square's $29bn acquisition of Afterpay in what might be the world's most expensive acquisition ever of this size. Equities also being lifted by lower US bond yields which should also give some support to gold which otherwise has not been responding too well to lower yields recently; maybe gold is once gain put into the shadow of rallies in cryptocurrencies? We also talk latest Israel and Iran tensions over drone attack on Israeli-linked ship which has spillover effects into the global oil market which is otherwise trapped in uncertainties over the Covid-19 Delta variant and its impact on the global economy. We are also talking about carmakers and their new EV figures, and finally we go through this week's earnings releases. On today's podcast are Ole S. Hansen on commodities and hosting Peter Garnry on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A strong sense of foreboding

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xi2jlv   -

Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen, who takes a look at the implications of the internals in yesterday's US Q2 GDP estimate miss, which the US market seemed oddly to celebrate before dumping after the market close on very weak guidance from Amazon in its earnings call. We also look at factors that will continue to drive inflation, the bearish equity market technical case that is still in effect after yesterday's action and in particular, the strong sense of foreboding Steen feels as he looks at the market backdrop here. A preview of the busy economic calendar for the week ahead and more on the call. Today's pod hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic