Saxo Market Call

FOMC taper talk underwhelms, but....

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xca1On  -

Today we look unpack the modest changes to the July FOMC monetary policy statement last night that elicited a fleeting sell-off in US treasuries and boost to the USD before that move was reversed. We also ask whether there were more interesting takeaways from the Fed Chair Powell press conference than the market reaction seemed to suggest. Finally we assess the market reaction to last night's meeting and what we are looking for from here, particularly as some of Fed Chair Powell's comments on inflation and incoming data could mean a highly reactive market around coming Fed speakers and labor-market data. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and is hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market not ready for taper talk at tonight's FOMC

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2VdLY47   -

Today's pod features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we run through the factors driving Chinese equities into their recent nosedive and the implications for EM trade allocations and the implications for Chinese policy from here. We also preview today's FOMC meeting and why the Fed may be ready for a far more dramatic pivot toward hinting at a tapering of asset purchases sooner rather than later, a development that is far outside of market consensus, which looks complacent in expecting no change from the Powell and company the meeting late today. Today's pod hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Unease as Chinese market rout deepens

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3zFEs0R   -

The ugly sell-off in Chinese stocks deepened again in late Asian trading after trying to hold a line of support earlier in the session, as the Chinese crackdown on key online companies and industries has lead to an exodus of investors, among those Cathie Wood of the popular Ark Innovation ETF, who announced that she has virtually eliminated Chinese stocks from the funds holdings. The disconnect with US equities, which closed again yesterday near the all-time highs is stark and perhaps unsustainable as the very largest of US companies are set to report in coming days. Key FX stories and pivotal questions as we exit this month also on today's pod, hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A volatile week ahead?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3eWSbIO   -

A weak start to the week for global markets as the bottom has fallen out of Chinese equities, on a new crackdown, this time on online education stocks, with the action overnight spoiling some of the positive  sentiment after a strong close to new record highs in the US on Friday. This week is a pivotal one, not only as it marks the peak week of quarterly earnings season with all of the biggest US equity names reporting, but also due to one-off factors like the US Treasury's general account and the latest FOMC meeting mid-week. John J. Hardy hosts today's pod.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market comeback may not extend for long

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3zxvuCZ   -

Today we check in with Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen for his thoughts on where we are in terms of market sentiment, the implications of what the ECB is signaling and doing after yesterday's meeting, the latest on the risk that volatility picks up beyond the end of this month, conviction on the non-transitory nature of the recent inflation pick-up and more. John J. Hardy hosts today's pod.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Sentiment comeback broadens ahead of ECB meeting

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3eInOFZ   -

Today we look at the broadening improvement in risk sentiment, as European stocks got on board with the powerful US market bounce, crude oil rebounded sharply and even the lagging FX market shifted back to a more pronounced risk-on stance. Still some wood to chop to argue that markets are in the clear, but the latest action supports the view that the recent swoon in sentiment was a one off brief consolidation. Also today, a look at the yield bounce and whether rising yields as we transition to August will provide the eventual headwinds for this market's further advance. Today's pod hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US equities rebound, but backdrop not fully on board with sentiment shift

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2Up50oj   -

Yesterday saw a very steep rebound in US equities, an impressive move that was mirrored in safe haven US treasuries reversing sharply from significant new highs yesterday. But there was a notable lack of similar energy in some other markets, as the Japanese equity market  closed far off its highs despite a USDJPY rebound, and the particularly in FX, where the USD has remained strong more broadly and the AUD, for example, punched to new lows for the cycle versus the greenback. Also on the call, we preview tomorrow's ECB meeting with Macro Strategist Christopher Dembik, as well as the status of the German and French elections. Today's pod hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic.

Market holds breath after testing pivotal levels

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3xRLG17   -

Markets suffered a steep extension of the sell-off yesterday, with many European bourses suffering their worst session of the year. In the US, the market found support at rather pivotal levels, with the burning tactical question from here whether the market can pull itself together and keep this sell-off in the "consolidation" category or whether we are suffered for a more significant deleveraging move, or "correction". Also on today's pod, our strategist in Australia, Eleanor Creagh, takes us through the RBA's latest thinking, the outlook down under for the economy, corporate earnings and more. The huge plunge in oil, spike in US treasuries and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic