Saxo Market Call

This week must answer the question: consolidation or correction?

No slide deck today, but here is a link to today's Saxo Market Quick Take: https://bit.ly/3BryzpZ   - 

Last week ended on a sour note and today we pick up the pieces and have a look at next key levels for the major indices, noting that Japan's Nikkei 225 is already challenging critical levels, while the US correction thus far is only just now reaching the first important levels, below which the situation becomes more serious. At issue seems to be a general concern with the status of the "reflation trade" and the degree to which the Covid resurgence is clouding the outlook. John J. Hardy hosts today's pod and wraps up the market action, and highlights the key earnings and macro calendar event risks this week.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market adrift despite max support from Fed this week.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3B8ZM09   - 

Today features Saxo Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen as we look at the factors possibly artificially suppressing US yields, the rather weak performance of risk sentiment this week despite about as much support as could be expected from Fed Chair Powell. We also talk up the prospects of non-transitory inflation, the implications of the latest climate policy initiatives around the world and much more. John J. Hardy hosts today's pod.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Gold stirring? Market unwilling to take a stand on inflation.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3wHmfOL   -

Today we look at the ongoing unwind of the reaction to the very hot US June CPI print from earlier this as the market seems unwilling to take a stand on rising inflation, and perhaps as well after Fed Chair Powell stuck to his guns on the Fed's attitude toward "transitory" inflation in testimony before Congress yesterday. Also, a breakdown of USDCAD after the Bank of Canada meeting yesterday, a look at whether gold is set to fully reverse its declines since the June FOMC meeting, another look at weak participation in the US equity market rally and more. Today's pod hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US CPI shocker - is it enough to shift the narrative?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3hFqF44  -

Today we look at a fresh and unexpected spike back higher in the US June CPI numbers and whether this data is sufficient to shift the narrative on inflation. So far, the reaction is modest compared to the scale of the reaction. Elsewhere, we run through the theme of central banks unwinding accommodation as the RBNZ surprised on the hawkish side overnight and the Bank of Canada is up later today. Also, a look at the potential for a massive new US fiscal package proposed by Democrats in Congress. Today's pod is hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US banking giants set to report. August as a pivotal month.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3xB7r5u    -

Today features special guest, Saxo Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen, as we look at the lay of the land in equity themes and notable divergences there, look at upcoming earnings reports from the major US banks this week, talk central bank sending diverging signals, particularly the ECB, and how one off issues like excess liquidity from the US Treasury's activities could make August a pivotal month for markets. Today's pod is hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Lousy market breadth as earnings season gets underway

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/36tQPR5   -

Today we look at the strong Friday close in the US, but note that breadth in the US market is remarkably weak. Also, a look at the weakening of conviction on the reflation trade, whether the JPY is set to take the lead in the FX market from the US dollar, gold levels, a preview of the earnings and macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod is hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A strange week in financial markets smelling of summer noise

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3dZG8K2   - 

Yesterday finally saw a proper risk-off across all asset classes but it did reverse later during the US session spilling over today with USDJPY, US 10-year yields, commodities and equities higher. This week has smelled of technical selloff and repositioning on the reflation trades, so we recommend investors to put less weight on this week's price action. In today's podcast we also discuss our theme equity theme basket on cannabis and the growth vs value valuation spread which has hit dot-com levels. On commodities we discuss what happened this week, the rebound in oil and whether it has legs, and finally corn testing recent lows. On today's podcast are Ole Hansen on commodities and Peter Garnry hosting and on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

How low can US yields go as China steps up stimulus?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2VaFsuU   - 

US equities post another new record yesterday with the second straight session of most of theme baskets declining suggesting that gains were driven by the "boring" stocks. FOMC Minutes suggested yesterday that the Fed is considering earlier tapering of bond purchases and China's State Council is considering lowering rates to stimulate the real economy supporting the growing view that China is experiencing a slowdown. The growth concerns are fueling lower interest rates, boosting technology stocks, causing equities to roll over from yesterday's highs. Oil prices are also weak on China's growth concerns and the Delta variant causing renewed disruptions to fuel demand. On today's podcast are Ole Hansen on commodities and Peter Garnry hosting and on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic