Saxo Market Call

US yields drop on oil plunge fueling Nasdaq 100 to new all-time high

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2Vk5EUd   - 

A 5% plunge in oil prices yesterday took more steam out of the inflation trade sending the US 10-year yield to a fresh low hitting late February levels. The move caused Russell 2000 to decline and fueled a rally in Nasdaq 100 to a new all-time high. In equities the big story is China's crackdown on Didi Global that listed in the US last week despite warned by Chinese regulator to wait. In today's podcast we also cover Samsung earnings, attractiveness of gold, USDJPY move on US yield drop, and the upcoming G20 meeting on Friday and Saturday in Venice. On today's podcast are Ole Hansen on commodities and Peter Garnry hosting and on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The inflation fear is still alive with surging oil and natural gas

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3jMnUQf   - 

While US technology stocks made a new all-time high risks are lurking beneath the surface with oil and natural gas prices marching ahead driven by OPEC+ decision to not increase production and limited supply of LNG to Europe while a number of gas pipelines are under maintenance. These price rises are pulling the inflation fear back into the market as higher energy prices can cause pain for households and businesses. We also talk the RBA decision overnight, weak German factory orders and why euro area yields could decline further before rising on higher inflation, the Fed's forced position in money markets, and lastly today's 1H result from Ocado. On today's podcast are Ole Hansen on commodities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and Peter Garnry hosting and on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today the last best chance to avoid the summer doldrums?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3yepvlJ   - 

Today we look at the huge quarter-end effect visible in the Fed's reverse repo facility, which plunged some $250 billion yesterday, though with no real treasury volatility during yesterday's session. On that note, we wonder if today's US jobs report is the last best chance to avoid the summer doldrums across markets, depending on whether we see a major surprise in the data. We also discuss the OPEC+ meeting developments and the remaining uncertainties for oil traders after confusing developments, wrap the commodities performance for the week and wonder where the USD will find resistance, as well as previewing the economic calendar for the week ahead. On today's pod are Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A new quarter dawns after Fed repo facility nearly hit $1 trillion

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xcxQWV   -

Today we look at whether the arrival of a new quarter can bring new dynamism to the US treasury market as the liquidity effects of ongoing Fed purchases combined with the US Treasury winding down holdings at the Fed and banks reducing their balance sheet size into quarter-end have dominated the most important of global markets. We also look at the shape of the US yield curve, thoughts on peripheral EU sovereign debt, a new spike in grain prices on a planting report, high natural gas prices and more. On today's pod are Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Will US jobs data challenge the narrative?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/361KHzf   -

Today we look at the energy coming out of the inflationary narrative in the markets, particularly as commodities prices have calmed recently, but as also noted in patterns in the US yield curve and in FX. Also, a deeper look at the status of the antitrust threat for megacaps after a "reprieve" for Facebook on the dismissal of an antitrust case against that company. Tactically, we note that it is quarter end and that any upside shocks in US labor data could surprise recent market developments on the inflationary narrative noted above. On today's pod are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Fading inflation fears boost risk appetite. Note quarter end up tomorrow.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3h0ITNm   -

Today we look at the ongoing strength in risk sentiment in the US, especially in the interest rate sensitive and "bubble" stocks as market seems to be buying into the transitory inflation narrative, although we do note that different conditions for the treasury market could prevail over the next month, starting with quarter-end tomorrow. Elsewhere, we have a look at the EU sovereign bonds, including the next EU bonds on offer, note weather impacts on specific key commodity markets and more. On today's pod are Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Bubble stocks, OPEC+, quarter-end and US jobs data on the radar this week

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3hfYszo   -

Today we look at the markets very much in glass-half-full mode, as equity markets continue to brush off the implications of a cautious tightening message rolled out by the Fed at the recent FOMC meeting. A look at the inflation theme, particularly in Europe with key inflation data on tap in the coming days, the oil market as a pivotal OPEC meeting is up later this week, forex, earnings and macro calendar highlights and much more. On today's pod are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Aggressive risk on ahead of US inflation data

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3dagtyc   -

US and Chinese equities notched a solid session yesterday and overnight, taking US equities to new all time highs and Chinese equities further above key support. Having spent all week unwinding last week's reaction to the FOMC meeting, USD traders will need to decide as soon as today whether the greenback's rally will reassert or fully reverse, with May PCE Inflation data up later. We also look at signals from Nike's and FedEx's earnings reports, fresh spikes in shipping costs out of China, rising energy prices, another EM central bank tightening policy and more. On today's pod are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic