Saxo Market Call

The central bank policy normalization train rolls on

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3gTHTuu   -

Today we look at another central bank hiking rates as the Czech central bank hiked 25 bps and guided hawkish, preview today's Bank of England meeting, which is seen likely to at least echo the Fed's shift at last week's FOMC meeting, and look at treasury market action ahead an important 7-year auction while still fretting whether the Treasury market is a reliable indicator of anything. Also, a look at what is holding back gold, a discussion on what average inflation targeting really means, the "Amazon effect" potential to boost  US wages and much more. On today's pod are Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market continues to shake off FOMC aftershocks. Grantham sounds alarm.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3gM2nFc   - 

Today we look at US tech stocks managing to pull to new all-time highs as the market continues to shake off the implications of last week's hawkish FOMC surprise. The JPY is tumbling and the Euro and dollar are also quite weak on strong risk sentiment and as the market sees a low terminal rate for any incoming Fed rate hike cycle. We also delve into oil - especially the forward curve and why it is  bad news for shale producers, copper, Etsy, Jeremy Grantham's bearish equities call, FX themes and much more. Today's pod with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Has the market already full priced a Fed tightening cycle?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3gLPkUp   - 

Today we look at yesterday's sharp rally in US equities that completely reversed the move from Friday. Elsewhere, long US treasury yields rose sharply just after posting new lows, while the moves at the front end of the yield curve (Fed expectations) and the rally in the US dollar since last week's pivotal FOMC meeting have largely stuck. We also look into the effects of the Fed's 5-bp hike on excess reserves and ponder whether the market has already fully priced a Fed rate hike cycle. A focus on equities on NVidia and its possible vulnerability in light of recent weakness in the cryptocurrency space, especially on China's crackdown. Today's pod with Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A week for taking stock after post-FOMC trauma

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3cV9vNc   -

Today we review the trauma that has unfolded across markets in the wake of last week's FOMC meeting, with equities feeling considerable heat on Friday and a vicious yield-curve flattening requiring an explanation, although at this point we may have more questions than answers. We also look at the impact in commodities, in FX, where a steep JPY rally has emerged, the macro and earnings calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Consensus macro positions getting poked with a very sharp stick?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3vzJ4TF   -

Today we note the significant further developments on the back of Wednesday's FOMC meeting, with new twists in the US yield curve after the knee-jerk reaction, a suddenly supercharged JPY and commodities reeling amidst USD strength, all suggesting that major consensus macro trades are in "pain mode" here. A look at FX, commodities and some sharp shifts in equity market internals and more on the call. Today's pod with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Time to smell the coffee: the Fed tightening cycle has begun

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3vwcW3y   -

Markets were surprised at the scale of the adjustment to the Fed policy forecasts in yesterday's FOMC meeting and treasury yields backed up steeply, spooking risk sentiment and taking equities lower, gold sharply lower and sending the USD spiking sharply to the upside. We look at the effect of this meeting across the fixed income space, also in Europe, and whether the move sticks, the implications for equities, which seem slow to accept what is going on here, and interesting signals from US homebuilder Lennar on its pricing power. On today's pod were Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

It's FOMC day - last chance to avoid the summer doldrums?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xvyrTz   -

Today we preview a possibly pivotal FOMC meeting if the Fed decides it is time to surprise the market on the hawkish, while we also recognize the risk that the meeting may do little to jolt this market. We also look into likely drivers of the sharp weakness in Chinese mainland shares, Oracle dropping after earnings, Gilts after a much hotter than expected CPI reading this morning, oil and copper and more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Stocks and treasuries diverge ahead of FOMC

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3wtBf3f   -

An interesting day yesterday that was out of synch with recent market behavior as US treasuries sold off sharply while tech and green transformation stocks rallied quite strongly on the day, posting new highs for the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices and suggesting little fear that the Fed is about to wax hawkish at tomorrow's FOMC meeting. We delve into recent drop in some commodity prices, oil, Gilts, how Oracle has grown its stock while not growing its revenue much in recent years and much more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic