Saxo Market Call

It's FOMC week, as market ponders taper talk and forecast shifts.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3gkw8wI  -  

'Today we wrap up Friday's positive action in the equity market as we continue to note that US treasuries may be a barometer for excess liquidity, not the market's assessment of inflation risks or the growth outlook. In FX, it was curious to see a sharp USD move higher when nothing else was afoot, perhaps a nod of the head at whether the FOMC is set for a talking up an eventual taper move and the unavoidable forecasts adjustements at Wednesday's meeting. Elsewhere, energy is picking up more investor focus than metals and grains, a couple of big and interesting names are reporting earnings this week despite the thin calendar, and in EM, Turkey is a major focus this week. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Market celebrates as treasuries supposedly buy the "transitory" narrative

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3wrDIeN   -

Today we sift through the market's reaction to the very hot US May CPI readings, pour over the contributors to the highest core CPI reading in decades and whether the market is making a mistake in pre-declaring this inflation spike as transitory. At the same time, we remind listeners that we're concerned treasury yields are weighed down by overwhelming liquidity more than reactive to data. Elsewhere, a look at grains, gold, China's attempt to temper metal price rises, Intel's bidding for a chip rival, the week ahead in macro and more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Note: the SaxoStrats team has set up a fantasy league for the Euro 2020 football championship. See more here if you would like to create your own team and go head-to-head versus the SaxoStrats' own team.

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Saxo Market Call Special Edition - Monthly FX Update

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3x8E75q   -

In this long form update, Saxo Head of FX Strategy John Hardy runs through the factors that have helped support the US dollar recently, the confusing signals the US treasury market is throwing off as liquidity considerations dominate traditional drivers, the drivers and status on most of the G10 currencies and a few select EM stories as well. Listeners will find a number of useful charts in the slide deck link above.

This podcast was originally presented as a live webinar - for upcoming webinars, please visit https://www.home.saxo/insights/events-and-webinars and to view recordings together with original video) 

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US treasury yields dip further ahead of hottest expected CPI in decades.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ziuD9G   -

Today we look at very quiet markets ahead of what should be a highly anticipated US CPI release, but with a market concerned that it will be months before the "whether inflation is transitory" issue is settled. In any case, treasuries continue to be an unreliable indicator and may be finding strength on overwhelming liquidity rather than on the inflation or economic outlook. We also talk gold, crude oil, the outlook for 70's style inflation, ECB and EU sovereign debt, whether SEC moves are a threat for Virtu and the Robinhood IPO and much more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Rate expectations near cycle low ahead of US CPI

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2RzJzzc   -

Today we look at a very quiet market, but with the general sense that investors are holding their breath for next week's FOMC meeting, where despite all of the inflation talk and signs of a white-hot US economy and massive demand for labor, the Fed rate expectations are pegged near multi-month lows. For crude oil, we look at factors completely outside of fundamentals that could be helping the oil market rally here as both Brent and WTI have posted new highs for the cycle. Much more on the call, including the much cloudier fiscal outlook in the US. On today's pod were Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Biogen, Bitcoin levels, signals unreliable from US treasuries

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3co8Gw6   -

Today we delve into the FDA approval for Biogen's controversial Alzheimer drug and key next steps for the company as this approval is not final. Elsewhere, we look at technical levels for Bitcoin now that it is breaking down again and trading below the lowest daily close since January. A look at the difficulty in getting price signals from the US treasury market, European car-maker valuations, FX stories and more on the call. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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We're not buying the narrative driving the "Goldilocks data" pump

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ck3Kbt   -

Today we look with a jaundiced eye on the market reaction Friday to what could arguably be dubbed "Goldilocks" nonfarm payrolls data, which came in sufficiently strong to suggest robust jobs growth, but slightly weaker than headline expectations, and thus less likely to bring forward a Fed tapering message, etc... Also on the call, a look into commodity performance, the enormous capital destruction in oil companies, the nervous wait for the June 16 FOMC meeting and more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Strong US jobs data spooks US bubble stocks, boosts the buck.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2RjDTt0   -

Today, a look at yesterday's weak US equity market session, which saw averages broadly lower, but with bubble stocks including Tesla in for especially heavy damage. Part of the damage may be due to concerns that strong US jobs data will bring forward Fed tightening, with today's official May jobs report and non-farm payrolls change data as the next important test. We also look into a sharp correction in metals, especially copper, the strong UDS reaction to the US data, copper stocks as the green transformation attempt will prove highly copper-intensive, and much more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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