Saxo Market Call

Strong US jobs data spooks US bubble stocks, boosts the buck.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2RjDTt0   -

Today, a look at yesterday's weak US equity market session, which saw averages broadly lower, but with bubble stocks including Tesla in for especially heavy damage. Part of the damage may be due to concerns that strong US jobs data will bring forward Fed tightening, with today's official May jobs report and non-farm payrolls change data as the next important test. We also look into a sharp correction in metals, especially copper, the strong UDS reaction to the US data, copper stocks as the green transformation attempt will prove highly copper-intensive, and much more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The green transformation to drive inflation. Fresh Reddit army rampage.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3vHAza9    -

Today, a look at key upcoming data points out of the US over the next two days that could spark fresh inflationary concerns - or stagflationary ones, as we point out that it is important how we interpret payrolls growth, whether particularly strong (inflationary) or disappointing (possible stagflation indicator). Also, we look at EU fixed income, signs of a possible reach for quality in corporate credit, the latest Reddit army rampage in AMC stock, the green transformation and how it will drive inflation and more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Someone is buying a lot of disaster insurance

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3c8CfBW   -

Today, we look at yesterday's interesting US equity session and whether bears might find it a tempting setup for taking a stab at selling, note a CBOE index showing a remarkable interesting in buying far out of the money options and what that could mean, run down the increasingly pivotal oil market after yesterday's OPEC+ meeting, talking energy stock valuation, earnings and European stocks, the latest FX developments and more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Where is this market going to find more juice?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2RZDnkj   -

Today, as the US and UK return from a long weekend, we ponder where this market is going to find additional "juice" in coming weeks and months as we may have passed the point of peak market support from central banks, with Fed taper talk beginning to creep into the picture ahead of the June 16 FOMC meeting. Also on the call, we look at dissonance in the bond market, key data releases today in Europe and the US, a new Saxo equity theme basket focused on global logistics, next steps for crude oil after Brent broke above the critical 70 dollars per barrel level in early trading today and more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Very low volatility can also mean longer term opportunities

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3p54XZy   -

Today we look at the low energy wind-down to the action in May as the US is out on a holiday, while noting that very low volatility is providing an attractive opportunity for hedging risk as we are entering a very critical time frame in coming months on the inflation question and to what degree it is transitory and whether the market is too complacent on the Fed's potential to shift if it isn't. A rundown of key commodities and equity theme baskets and the big move in the CNY and more on the call. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The 'Reddit army' is back and wild comeback in commodities

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3hZLDvq  -

Intraday volatility continues to be on the decline in broader equities, but in the equity corner of meme stocks, the 'Reddit army' has reloaded and come back for more aggressively pushing up AMC shares. The total traded value of AMX shares hit $18.7bn eclipsing Tesla at $16.6bn traded value and normally by far the most traded US stocks. In other words, the dangerous behaviour in quirky pockets of equities is back. Commodities are also back ignoring the signals of the Chinese government signalling that China is not as much in control of commodities as many thought potentially paving the way for even more aggressive moves to the upside. In today's podcast we also cover yesterday's US bond auctions, the price action in European peripheral bonds, next week's earnings and macro releases, and finally a quick take of Salesforce earnings. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and Althea Spinozzi on fixed income.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

German bond indigestion and big oil activist coup

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2SuRrCf  -

Financial markets have calm down significantly this week with the news flow fizzling and investors in a wait-and-see mode on inflation. Germany saw a terrible bid-to-cover ratio yesterday suggesting the latest decline in the Bund yield could soon quickly reverse and potentially reignite momentum in European banks. Oil markets got a shock yesterday as activist investors seized at least two boardroom seats at ExxonMobil paving the way for a change on climate change and carbon emissions; at the same time a Dutch court ordered Shell to accelerate its plans to cut carbon emissions - are we heading for a new 70s-style energy shock? We also cover rally in the Chinese Yuan and its implications for inflation, and earnings from Nvidia yesterday suggesting the semiconductor troubles will stay with the industry for at least 2-3 quarters. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and Althea Spinozzi on fixed income.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Distortions from Fed's massive liquidity provision creating unreliable signals

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3ugWvHC  -

Today the chief theme across markets is the Fed's ongoing tsunami of liquidity provisioning and the distortions it is creating across markets and possibly unreliable signals in treasury markets, as seen in a very strong 2-year Treasury auction yesterday. Gold is certainly enjoying the liquidity bonanza and low rates, while the kiwi spiked on more hawkish than expected guidance from the RBNZ. Also on the call, we ponder whether EM equities may be bottoming out, earnings coming up from Nvidia and others and next steps for crude oil. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic