Saxo Market Call

Old fashioned risk-off a real change of pace

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2P6Q6jI   -

Today we look at a "classic" episode of highly correlated risk-off across markets, as equities suffered another ugly session in the US, followed by an even uglier session in Japan on concerns of new Covid lockdowns there, while the USD, JPY and safe haven bonds enjoyed broad strength. Netflix results and guidance added to the negative energy and we look at incoming earnings elsewhere, as well as key signs of a budding political revolution in Germany that could change the face of Europe after the September election. Finally, we discuss a key nomination hearing today for "anti-trust icon" Lina Khan, who would join the FTC if approved. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

EU yields tease higher ahead of ECB. Netflix focus on earnings.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3dvhLnV   -

Today we look at EU yields pulling sharply higher yesterday, adding pressure for the ECB to respond one way or another at its meeting on Thursday. Elsewhere, the USD is sinking fast, commodity prices are rising, US equities wobbled ahead of an interesting test of sentiment on the Netflix earnings call today. This an more on today's pod, with Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Crypto calamity over the weekend. Q1 earnings in focus this week.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3ajZaJC  - 

Today we look at the meltdown in the crypto space at the weekend and the risk for the ARK, Coinbase etc as bubble stocks were already under pressure late last week. Also a look at commodities after a nearly across the board revival of the space last week, also as the USD has come under pressure. Gold has teased above important resistance as well. The big focus this week will be on Q1 earnings, and we take listeners through the key names reporting this week across a wide array of industries. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Cognitive dissonance as super-strength US data sees treasuries rally

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3gmIwMW   -

Today we delve into the incredibly strong  US data yesterday, which the US treasury market  not only shrugged off, but rallied on, which could suggest a cautious stance on the view that strong data will ease quickly once the  stimulus sugar rush fades - but why then do US equities remain on fire. Also on the call, the  yield crush helps gold tease pivotal resistance as key pro-cyclical commodities are up almost across the board recently, some thoughts on GBP and FX and more. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Coinbase fizzles from strong starting point.

https://bit.ly/2OStAeo  -

Today we look at the first day of Coinbase stock trading, which garnered considerable attention and soared briefly from a strong opening price before closing down more than 20% from intraday highs, therefore in a "bear market" although we of course can't judge where it is headed after a mere one day of trading. Also on the call, a look at our new crypto equity theme basket, strong grain prices and the jump in oil, Covid concern in India and implications, junk and EM debt, treasuries, Russian sanctions and the ruble, and more. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Buy-the-fact on hot US CPI boosts bubble stocks. Coinbase IPO incoming.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3mL1FcF   -

Today we look at yesterday's March US CPI release, which came in hotter than expected and very hot by historical standards, and yet how the US Treasury market actually rallied on the day, suggesting that the market wants to look through inflation fears for now. This gave speculative stocks a strong boost, even as the broader market was somewhat weak. Elsewhere, we delve into ripping lumber prices, gold celebrating the treasury rally, whether the US dollar is rolling over and the very unusual and riveting Coinbase IPO. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Are global stocks set for negative real returns for the next decade?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3te94nx   -

Today we look at MSCI World equity valuations, which are looking as rich as they ever have and if historic patterns persist, the MSCI world index could be set for very weak and even negative real returns for the next decade. Elsewhere, we break down the upcoming US T-bond auction and US March CPI release, moves in commodities and FX, action in Nvidia and semiconductors and much more. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic.

Big week ahead for earnings, politics, treasuries and macro data

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3s7uL7b    -

Today we have a look at the week ahead, one that could prove action-packed, as the German political situation has heated up dramatically over the weekend and ahead of elections later this year, US Q1 earnings season gets under way this week, US treasury auctions keep the focus on US yields and interesting March macro data points roll into view. Italian debt issuance, FX focus and Microsoft's bid for Nuance and more also on the call. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic