Saxo Market Call

Flying high, but spotting a few fiscal clouds on the horizon

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3g1VIqJ   -

Today we note the continued bid tone in US equities and strong momentum there while strong inflationary pressures in China as shown in a high March PPI reading there overnight suggest policy is to remain tight, restraining sentiment. Looking beyond the near term, one fresh source of longer term concern is the future of US fiscal policy, given evidence that "king-maker" Democratic senator Joe Manchin is against ending the filibuster, which would require difficult  bipartisan cooperation if new fiscal measures are to see the light of day. A look at a new basket of Chinese consumer stocks, soaring corn prices, oil, gold, patterns in FX and more. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro & Outro music by AShamaluevMusic

FOMC dials up the dovishness. Can US get global minimum tax done?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/39SikFX   -

Today we look at the boost to risky assets in the wake of the dovish message from the FOMC minutes last night. We also bring up a few longer term questions on the US ability to act as a leader in coordinating a multilateral agreement on minimal tax levels after US Secretary of Treasury Yellen's comments. This will be crucial for forward earnings projections for the big multinationals. Meanwhile, more tactically, a number of yield-sensitive instruments are at pivotal levels, from the US dollar to precious metals as we watch for whether US treasuries will continue to consolidate higher or have already digested the recent sell-off. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro & Outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Global markets potpourri and bitcoin thought bubbles

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3fOZCTK   -

Today's call a real tour of global markets as we talk India, Coffee, platinum, US Treasuries rallying despite strong US data and implications of that for the yen, Toshiba takeover bid, and discuss whether the Bitcoin market is reaching a critical level for regulators, as well as signs that, as in a gold rush, the surest profits go to those selling the shovels, or in this case, the exchanges enabling crypto transactions. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro & Outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DAX overheating? What are US treasuries saying about strong US data?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3sXEzBS   -

Today we note the strong new surge in US equities and the possible drivers, wonder if the action in the DAX may be getting a bit over the top, look at why Asian markets didn't join in the party overnight, ponder why US treasuries aren't more down in the dumps on extremely strong US data, look into metals, especially a sudden white-hot Uranium story and much more. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro & Outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Featuring Steen Jakobsen and the view from 10,000 feet.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2Pm32SX   -

Today features our Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen, who offers an executive summary of our Q2 outlook and weighs in on many topics, including the outlines of Biden's infrastructure stimulus set to be officially announced later today, as well as whether its scale is sufficient to make a mark. Also on the agenda, the implications of tax increases accompanying a new Biden stimulus, the implications of the rise in real rates and why gold is under pressure, the need for a "geopolitical" premium and much more. Today's call hosted by John J. Hardy.

US yield rise hogging the market bandwidth. But junk is staggeringly resilient.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3cxdOyn  -

Today, a bit more today on the Archegos kerfuffle, but more attention on the fresh rise in US treasury yields, which poked to new highs for the cycle in the belly of the US yield curve as US treasuries  head for their worst quarterly performance in over 40 years. Even so, Junk bonds remain incredibly resilient amid a torrent of issuance. Elsewhere, the higher US yields - and importantly, the higher US real yields, are taking the USD higher, with USDJPY taking out the big 110.00 level as the quarter and Japanese financial year close tomorrow. The French OAT auction on Thursday is the one to watch in Europe.  Today's call with Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Pondering Archegos risks. Important week for macro data, quarter-end.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3cxBClQ   -

Today we look at the kerfuffle in the wake of the Archegos hedge fund meltdown that unfolded late last week, even if it didn't  affect the broader averages until the scale of the situation became clear over the weekend. We ponder whether this is a one-off or if it is a sign of a concerning pattern. We also preview the important week ahead, with key US labor market data that will get increasing focus from here as we transition to the post-lockdown reality in the US. Quarter end is also this week. We preview the key global equity earnings reports this week as well.  Today's call with Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

US equities stepped away from the brink. We need to talk franc-ly.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3cnBl4U   -

Today we look at US equity markets managing a bounce just after tipping over the edge of local supports, and then a strong follow-on session in Asia. We also look at the weak 7-year US Treasury auction, even if it was sufficiently firm to avoid significant tremors. In FX, worth noting that the negative yielders, especially CHF, are under significant further pressure here, even without US treasury yields punching to new highs. On today's call were Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.