Saxo Market Call

Pivotal week ahead as US yields at cycle highs

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3vkveWF   -

Today we look at the US treasury market closing last week at new cycle highs and the pivotal week ahead, as US stimulus checks hit the street this week and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday will see the latest Fed policy forecasts and possible other moves. We also look at whether travel stocks are over-anticipating the coming bounce-back in activity, gold showing an interesting change of behavior on Friday, AUD dropping on Chinese iron ore production signals and much more. Today's call with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Next week could be an absolute barn-burner for markets

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2OrR0XN  - 

Today we look at the latest huge pump in US equities that has yielded to a significant dump overnight as US long treasury yields are poking at the highs for the cycle again. Also on the agenda - contrasting Volkswagen's rising star with Tesla's recent plunge, the euro and the ECB's dilemma with its PEPP programme, thoughts on credit and especially on why next week could prove a very volatile one, with the FOMC meeting and BoJ meeting and policy review on tap as US stimulus checks begin hitting the street - and the equity market as well. Today's call was with Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

A global roller coaster ride

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2OFUHsL  - 

Today the team dives into the still pronounced divergences in equity markets as the big speculative names gapped higher yesterday before fizzling badly in the cash session, only to rise again in overnight trading, while value stocks globally continue their rise. We also look through the US 10-year treasury auction, noting it was weaker than first impressions might suggest. A run through FX, ECB preview, oil and gold and more on the call. Today's call was with Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

US stocks storm back as yields calm.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2N3fNAF   -

Today we look at the big bounce in US equities, with the most speculative names bouncing the most, and note the next key tech levels for the Nasdaq 100 if it is going to dig itself out of trouble. Also, we break down the less good news within the good  news of the strong 3-year US treasury auction yesterday while noting the upcoming auctions are more important. A look at gold, oil, AUDUSD and other FX and more on the call. On today's call were Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

The huge shift in equity market internals.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ezqjez   -

Today we note the extraordinary divergences in equity market internals, as value stocks of all stripes (whether they truly qualify is another issue..) are up while momentum and the most speculative stocks have suffered a notable drawdown recently. Clearly, it's all about the rise in yields and fears of incoming inflation - so we look at how stocks have performed historically in an inflationary regime, look at FX and commodity developments and more. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. 

Twin US treasury yield and USD wrecking balls still swinging

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2OuwHJ0  -

Today we look at the positive correlation between equities and treasuries after Wall Street tried to piece together a strong close to last week after a large intra-week sell-off. But the comeback attempt is crumbling suddenly as the week gets underway, with US treasury futures selling off again and the US dollar firming broadly. Elsewhere, we look at the further spike in oil, delve into FX levels and correlations, preview the week ahead in equity earnings and macro event risks and much more. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Powell shrugs off yield rise, triggering fresh market tantrum

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3bjKuuN  -

Today we unpack what unfolded yesterday, as Fed Chair Powell failed to provide the reassurance that the market was looking for on the recent sharp rise in Treasury yields, and ponder what happens next. The equity market lurched into a broad decline, led once again by the most speculative and yield-sensitive stocks, the USD spiked and treasuries closed at their highest yield levels for the cycle. Elsewhere, we look at why oil spiked higher on the same day, as markets provided a heady mix of developments, with another nervous day for markets likely ahead. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Are expectations for imminent Powell put overbaked?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/30hLzg9   -

Today we look at yesterday's steep sell-off on Wall Street as the market continues to fret the rise in Treasury yields. Linked to that, we ponder whether expectations for imminent Fed action to tamp down on longer yields are overbaked as Fed Chair Powell is set for an appearance later today. A look through FX developments, especially the most pronounced mover in G10 FX, the Swiss franc, and a look at gold, oil and more on the call. On today's call were Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.