Saxo Market Call

Markets scratching around for a catalyst after treasury trauma

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3sEsa5e  -

Market direction changes have been frequent and seem to lack conviction across assets over the last few days, perhaps a reflection of the general uncertainty on "What is next?" after the intense US Treasury sell-off last week traumatized markets. Today we wonder what comes next and look at key equity, FX and commodity developments and slap a huge question mark over the market pricing of Sea (reported yesterday) and really its entire business model. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Chinese regulator sees what many others refuse to: a bubble

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3sEwQbj   -

Overnight, a prominent Chinese regulator expressed concern on bubble risks, foreign and domestic, and the Chinese market is in a very different place from other markets, both in technical and valuation terms. Also on the call, we look through the latest comeback attempt for US and European equities, express concern on the US dollar, discuss credit and next levels for sovereign bond yields, look at the most notable correction in commodities in some time and more. On today's call were Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

 

Can it really be that easy?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2MypAyn   -

Today we look at the strong start to the new week and new month after Friday saw the most immediate cause of concern - spiking bond yields - easing back lower. Australia's RBA announced a doubling of longer term bond purchases and the ECB has railed against higher yields recently as well, and the US House just passed the $1.9 trillion stimulus, which now must pass the Senate. Is the market trying once again to celebrate central banks having the market's back - perhaps prematurely? A look at commodities and FX developments on the call as well.  Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Treasury yield spike sends correlations towards one - helmets on.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3aW4gMP   -

Today we delve into the enormous spike in US treasury yields yesterday, in part triggered by a weak 7-year treasury auction and how the accompanying spike in real yields finally set off an across the board deleveraging wave, dangerously sending correlations across asset markets towards one, with commodities and credit also seeing some contagion yesterday. We look through how quickly the Fed might respond from here to the situation and the ongoing danger of the "ARK-Tesla-Bitcoin" Nexus specifically. Today with Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

The everything up and bonds down trade will not have legs

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3aPnkMG   - 

Today we take a look at a remarkable day for markets as nearly everything was bid up yesterday and overnight save for bonds, which sold off heavily again, sending yields to new cycle highs, most likely on the news that the US FDA has found the that the Johnson and Johnson Covid vaccine is safe and effective before meeting Friday for possible authorization of its use. We also take a look at a single outfit behind much of the upside pressure in copper, how FX is reacting to the backdrop, equity earnings and more. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

A nervous comeback after a further rout

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2Nt48LU   -

Today we take a look through yesterday's remarkable session, in which the steep sell-off in equities - particularly for those with Tesla-ARK-speculative stripes - accelerated and then staged a profound bounce as disruptor guru Cathie Wood was interviewed on TV and crystallized the connection between the highly valued disruptor stocks and crypto-currencies. We also take a look at the ugly action in Chinese mainland shares, an interesting recent pattern in the copper market gyrations, the oil market, salient FX themes and more. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Is the bubble popping?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3aMIrPL   -

Today we break down yesterday's downside acceleration in the most speculative pockets of the US equity market and ponder the likely correlations with the crypto space, which has suffered enormous volatility this week. Elsewhere, has the ECB already shot across the bow on yield-curve-control and what will Powell say, if anything on Capitol Hill today on the status of markets, particularly the treasury market? A look at the continuing heady action in commodity markets and the crosscurrents in FX also on the call. Today's call with Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Is equity market already smelling the yield spike?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2MgG3r0   -

Today we look at suddenly deteriorating risk sentiments, triggered at first blush overnight by a very weak session in mainland Chinese equities, although the US has been slipping since last Tuesday's record high, and we suspect the spike in global long yields is at the root of the  case of bad nerves. We also look at the huge spike in key industrial metals and the equities that thrive on and are most hurt by the current intermarket moves, as well as previewing earnings this week and more. Today's call with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.