Saxo Market Call

The Fed path to YCC is a chicken and egg question

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3qzmCbN   -

Today we are pleased to have Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen on to take us through his view of the lay of the land across markets, especially his views on the Fed and its misplaced assumptions about the economy and the effects of its policy mix. We also look at why the Fed will eventually have to move to a yield-curve-control policy, but whether it is able to without an ugly correction or hiccup in risk sentiment in markets first. The curious struggles of gold and more are also on the agenda. With John J. Hardy hosting.

Inflation on the brain

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3s5pw8A  -

Today we look at further signs of inflationary pressures from a key shipping rate, look at the evidence of the Fed's hubris as showcased in the FOMC minutes late yesterday and the risk they are setting up for a policy mistake on inflation. Also a look at the latest action in treasuries and the odd shape of the "breakeven curve" ahead of today's important US 30-year TIPS auction. Rising real yields of late are also an issue and the driver for gold struggling at critical support. This and more in today's episode, featuring Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Yields spike further and finally get (a modicum of) respect

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3bfzcGC   - 

Today we look at the acceleration higher in US treasury yields yesterday, with the entire yield curve from 5 years on out lifting aggressively and finally getting widening respect outside of the yield sensitive USDJPY and gold, as the USD was broadly bid on the development and the speed of the move was likely also behind the weaker US equity market after early trading saw new all-time high. Also a look at oil and copper as we wonder if the yield rises continue and the impact broadens further.  Today's call with Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Every market top looks different

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3tZFanE    -

Today we take a look at the three previous major highs in the equity market and compare conditions then with conditions now, as we continue to maintain a cautious stance, particularly given the recent rise in bond yields. On that note, a look at the next key levels for US and UK 10-year yields, a run through what is holding gold back as the reflation narrative otherwise thrives, and much more. Today's call with Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Two opposing forces accelerate

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3pnR1bs   -

Today we discuss the further ramping of US equity prices to new record highs for the cycle on Friday, as US long treasuries sold off steeply  and even added to their losses overnight, sending long US yields to new highs for the cycle. This represents a tightening of financial conditions that will have consequences at some level, and one that could arrive a bit sooner for this cycle given a more leveraged global economy and aggressive valuation multiples. Also a look at the effects of this backdrop on FX and the latest ramp in some commodities prices as well as how the market is positioned in commodities. Today's call with  Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Stay careful out there, as conditions simply look too good

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3jG1iP8    - 

Today we discuss whether, with conditions about as good as they can possibly get and ever have been historically, it is time to hedge risk exposure and take a few chips (or more) off the table. We also drill into Disney earnings, the Bumble IPO, why gold is struggling for air and oil should be struggling for air and a look at whether EURUSD could stay capped here. Today's call with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

All time easy financial conditions with hyper-sensitive vol. What could go wrong?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2MUZHsP   -

Today we look at some "disturbances in the force" as some of the more speculative stocks have suddenly been in for some rough sledding even as the US market poked at all time highs briefly yesterday. As well, we note the incredible reach for yield in junk debt at the same time markets seem hyper-sensitive to the least jump in volatility - an echo of the crazy jump in vol over the r/wallstreetbets attack on shorted names. A thorough investigation of gold and copper drivers also on the call. Today's call with Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

China heads into long holiday with a flourish

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3q8nCn4   -  

Today, a look at surging Chinese equities ahead of their week long holiday to mark the Chinese New Year, a look at the "everything up and USD" down trade that has re-engaged fully this week, especially in copper and platinum, the next earnings reports of interest and interesting event risks later in the US with a CPI release on tap, together with a 10-year treasury auction and Fed Chair Powell out speaking. Today's call with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.