Saxo Market Call

Market shrugs off the mob on Capitol Hill, toasts the stimulus checks

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3oqAsMo   -

Markets largely looked away from the Trump mob storming Capitol Hill and instead chose to toast the implications of the two Georgia Senate run-off races falling in the Democrats' favour on Dem promising new $2,000 stimulus checks when the new Congress meets. We also look at the most important development across markets: the sharp break higher in long US yields, and look at the  implications. Elsewhere, we note Chinese market underperformance overnight on the risk of US moves against major Chinese companies. Today on the call are Ole Hansen on commodities, Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX

Blue Wave Lite washes over markets

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/35fXe21   -

Today we look at the market reaction to both Georgia Senate seats apparently set to fall into Democratic hands in the run-off elections there, thus putting the US Senate and therefore US Congress on side with the incoming Biden administration, if by the slimmest of margins. We run through what this means for US high-flying speculative stocks and megacaps, especially with an eye on the break higher in US long yields, the US dollar and commodities, as the reflationary trade just got a big boost with this development. Today on the call are Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities, Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Nervy start to the New Year

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3nh2dpx  - 

Today we look at the divergent developments at the start of 2021, with Chinese equities on fire while US equities stumbled badly in the first session of the year, an ugly development after the late run-up and possibly linked to today's Georgia Senate run-off races and whether the Democrats may get control of Congress, if only barely. Elsewhere, oil suffered a pump and dump ahead of important OPEC decision time on production targets. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Markets have reflation on the brain as 2021 bolts out of the gates

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3hGiVxt   - 

Today, we look at the positive start to the year, with some interesting exceptions, and despite the ongoing dark cloud of Covid-19 hanging over the global economy. Commodities and cryptocurrencies are particularly enthusiastic in pricing in a reflationary recovery later this year, with interesting recent pockets of weakness in some formerly high-flying equity names. Today's call with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Special Edition: Fixed Income Outlook 2021

Podcast slide deck: https://bit.ly/381kR0i   - 

In this special edition podcast, Head of Fixed Income Strategy Althea Spinozzi takes us through the crazy year of 2020 for US treasuries and EU and UK sovereign debt and notable shifts that are unfolding as 2020 draws to a close and what we can expect for the fixed income landscape in 2021 and where the most compelling opportunities lie, depending on how the macro and policy backdrop develops. Hosting is John J. Hardy, Saxo Head of FX Strategy.

Interesting divergences despite overall cheer

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3n0tmwG  - 

In today's podcast, the last regular before yearend, we focus on the continued stock market surge while also highlighting the most aggressive margin debt ramp up in 13 years. Some divergence seen with a much followed "disruptive innovation" ETF trading down on the day. Also the underwhelming Brexit reaction raising worries about Sterling and hedge funds positioning themselves for further commodity upside in 2021. Today's call with Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

 

We continue to urge caution. Alibaba taken down by stern message on Ant Group.

Today's slide deck:   https://bit.ly/2WN5Vfx  - 

Today we issue a strong warning on the state of the market and the risks to traders from the current speculative froth as a new calendar year approaches. That said, the US equity market is pushing at an all time highs again as US President Trump has finally caved on his position on bigger stimulus checks and has signed the stimulus bill. Elsewhere, we look at the spooky silence in sterling after a "thin" Brexit deal has been agreed, look at the positive setup for commodities in 2021 and discuss the broader implications of the Chinese authorities' take down of Ant Group (and thus Alibaba.) Today's call with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. 

Special Edition: Commodity Outlook for 2021

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/37GjHqO - 

In this special edition of the podcast, Ole Hansen, Saxo Head of Commodities Strategy, takes us through the remarkable year of 2020 for commodities and what we can look forward to in 2021, where we see significant further risk of a pickup in commodity prices, especially driven by a weaker US dollar and a new policy environment accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Ole also takes us through how investors can gain exposure to commodities in what has become a very different landscape relative to recent years, with commodities in aggregate in backwardation. Hosting the podcast is Saxo Head of FX Strategy John J. Hardy.