Saxo Market Call

A shot of Covid-19 vaccine news jolts markets

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/36eHb48   - 

Markets were upside down yesterday as Pfizer made a breakthrough announcement of results showing 90% effective Covid-19 vaccine significantly exceeding previous expectations of 60-70%. S&P 500 equity futures jumped 3% led by gains in energy and financial stocks while Nasdaq 100 futures were selling off hard as investors are readjusting their outlook for the technology sector but also rising yields which were evident across the board. The higher US yields also negatively impacted safe-haven currencies such as JPY and CHF. Another market that was negatively impacted by the vaccine news was gold down more than 4% responding to rising real yields and the potential lower fiscal impulse coming from governments on back of an effective vaccine. Crude oil did not respond to the same degree as energy stocks highlighting an interesting disconnect as crude oil futures obviously reflect the true impact from the vaccine news. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Everything up rally extends further, led by Asia.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3eN8syM   - 

Today we look at the remarkable further extension of the post-US Election global equity rally, led by major Asian markets posting major new cycle highs. A look at the glass-half-full case for equities as well as whether gold traders have cause for pause on real interest rates here, and if China will continue to allow it currency to strength from important levels here. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Bad is good, or Adventures in the Land of Everything Up

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2IcpLNb   - 

Today we look at whether the Everything Up trade can continue from here, and if so, the narrative that is driving it, especially TINA and the idea that the Fed will remain hyperactive as long as US political gridlock means fiscal stimulus will remain largely handcuffed for some time. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Equities and bond markets rip higher as vol hedges unwound

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2I9W2Vw  - 
Today we look at the enormous US equity and bond market rallies yesterday and try to frame what is going on as a collapse in volatility after the apparently over-anticipated US election event - which nonetheless is being hotly contested by President Trump. We delve into FX and Commodity market reactions as well. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

US Election: Trump-quake relative to expectations even as final outcome unknown

Today we offer our brain-dump on what has unfolded on Election Day in the US, with the final results still unknown and vote counts apparently stalled. But the headline takeaway so far is that turnout was not the Democrats secret weapon and even more so, that mainstream polling and news outlets got the situation so massively wrong that their credibility is now fatally eroded. A contested election scenario is a prominent risk, with the losing side once the vote is counted refusing to concede if the vote margins are razor thin. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Final thoughts ahead of the US Election

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2TQiMMM   - 

Today we offer our final thought ahead of the US Election, including uncertainties on the quality of polling data and market reaction for various scenarios across asset classes, particularly for gold and FX. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Special Edition - US Election Countdown

Article link on Saxo's home page for this podcast: https://bit.ly/385tBmy  - 

In today's US Election Special Edition podcast, John Hardy runs down his series of Election Countdown articles and discusses Electoral College Outcome scenarios and what these could mean for the markets, as well as where to focus on Election Night as the results come in. 

Just ahead of US election, USD strong while equities and treasuries weak

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/34Layvv   - 

Today we look at the market action heading into this week as risk sentiment ex Asia remains in the dumps on new Covid-19 lockdowns and possibly on jitters ahead of the US election. A look at the steepening US yield curve and the drivers there and thoughts on the USD and AUD ahead of the US election and RBA meeting. Today with Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.