Saxo Market Call

Houston, we have a bubble.

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/2EIY6BN -
Yesterday's acceleration in the US megacap stocks on top of an already torrid rally underlined the thesis that we have entered into bubble territory there, a development we slice a few different ways on today's call. Whether today's Powell speech aggravates the parabolic price rally there or reverses it or neither, this event risk is possibly important for the narrative driving this historic market. Elsewhere a look at the reaction potential of other markets over the Powell speech and why energy prices are shrugging off a vicious hurricane strike in the US. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Stormy markets ahead as Hurricane and Powell strike tomorrow

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/34v90pP -
Hurricane Laura in the Gulf of Mexico is set to make landfall tomorrow as a major storm and its track is critical for whether the impact for financial markets is minimal or significant. Elsewhere, treasuries are under pressure ahead of a major Powell speech tomorrow that will almost have to make a significant impact even if the Fed chair delivers the message the consensus expects. Ant Group, Apple and much more on the call. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and hosting, John J. Hardy.

Bubble stocks churn, broader market surges

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/3jdmzyk -
Today we look at the divergence between choppy action in some of the megacap stocks relative to a risk-on surge in the broader market yesterday, one that finally got Europe on board. We also look at key commodities stories and a scramble of Dow components as Apple's representation in the index is set to drop 75% when the stock splits. The "K-shaped recovery", oil, grains and more on the call as well. Today with Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting.

RNC Convention and Powell Speech in focus this week

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/2QlO9gd -
Today we look at the strong equity market narrative versus the alarming lack of market breadth in the US, as the megacap rally continues to diverge from the weaker broader market. Elsewhere, we focus on the interesting week ahead, as the Republican convention gets under way to day and on Thursday, we await Fed Chair Powell's presentation of the Fed's comprehensive policy review. Agricultural markets interesting also heating up. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy on FX.

US megacaps come roaring back, action elsewhere mixed

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/3l6AUyk -
Today we look at the strong comeback in the US megacap companies yesterday after the brief sell-off inspired by the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Market breadth is looking less healthy, and while the USD sold off again, the move was not yet convincing for the bears as we await the weekly close as a key status check. The macro outlook, Ant Group, and other specific equity stories on the call. Today with Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy on FX.

Markets stumble over FOMC minutes

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/34gVia3 -
Today we look at why the markets stumbled on the release of last night's FOMC minutes, which seemed to show lukewarm enthusiasm for yield-curve-control policy. The most interesting reaction may have been in FX, where the USD backed up sharply after the prior tumble. In commodities, copper is gunning at interesting levels. On today's call are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy on FX.

US stocks buoyant ahead of Fed signals and despite stimulus concerns

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/317g75A -
Today we have a look at the ongoing strength in US equities as the S&P 500 cash index finally closed at an all time high, discuss the US stimulus concerns that could be sustained through the election, and look at possible incoming Fed signals and their implication. Peter Garnry looks at interesting single stock stories, particularly Walmart results and Sea Ltd,, and John Hardy looks at the latest dip in the USD and surge in sterling.

Tesla accelerates, JPY confuses, gold rushes back

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/3hacYYn -
Today we look at the ongoing US divergence with the rest of the world, with further strength in the megacaps helped perhaps by a weaker USD as EURUSD is now perched at the top of the range. Tesla saw a massive acceleration yesterday, clearly driven by other factors than the large companies that show high earnings predictability. Also today a look at the USD and the possible FOMO rally for gold. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy on FX.