Saxo Market Call

Oil prices go negative, equities rolling over, EU looking shaky

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/2VpDTac
Today we look at the historic collapse in oil prices to deeply negative territory yesterday and the risk of a repeat for the June contract if the realities on the ground don't change. Elsewhere, we ponder a still very speculative equity market that may be rolling over here and talk EU risks heading into the critical Thursday EU meeting. Today with Ole Hansen on commodities, Peter Garnry on equities, and John J. Hardy on FX.

All eyes on the EU existential narrative this week.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2wR5kQH  
Today we discuss the lay of the political landscape across Europe ahead of what will prove a critical EU council meeting up this Thursday as we await the EU's ongoing response to the crisis. Extra coverage of the factors moving the Australian market today as the big banks Down Under come into focus. Today with Eleanor Creagh on equities and Australia, Christopher Dembik on EU and macro and John J. Hardy on FX.

No balm in Gilead? Still leaning against the bullish case.

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/2Vu2F7K
Today we discuss the ongoing melt-up in the big tech and other names in the US and continue to lean against the market's pricing of the equity outlook on a fundamental basis. Specifically to the story on the Gilead Sciences drug as a treatment for Covid19 patients, we are extremely cautious on the market's enthusiasm surrounding this story. Lots more on oil, gold and FX in the call. Today with Ole Hansen on commodities, Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy on FX.

The unbearable slowness of opening up

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/2VvVDQa
Today we continue our discussion of the remarkable lack of breadth in the equity market, the difficult path of opening up and whether the markets' assumption of the pace of a return to normal conditions is too complacent or merely reflects confidence in ongoing massive central bank support. More on oil and EU existential risks as well. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy on FX.

To fight or not to fight the Fed?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2RCtYfh  
Today we discuss the remarkable short squeeze (or comeback, depending on your point of view) in the major US equity indices on the "Don't fight the Fed!" narrative that has accompanied the action since last Thursday, and to what degree that narrative is justified. Also a discussion of oil, existential EU risks and Italy, and much more. Today with Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen, Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy on FX. 

Sentiment at hopium levels, earnings season to weigh

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3a697Hz
Today we discuss the key levels for sentiment as markets are clearly trading on hope rather than reality on the ground as the EU comes back from the holidays and oil markets hope that the agreed "OPEC++" deal will support prices. Earnings season is upon us starting today as well. Today with Ole Hansen on commodities, Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy on FX.

Eurogroup meeting fail, new lines in sand for equities

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/2xW5YN2
Today we discuss the Eurogroup meeting failure and implications for the EU and euro, even if the parties are set to resume talks tomorrow. As well, a discussion of the new lines in the sand for the major equity markets after yesterday's somewhat disappointing finish in the US. Today with Christopher Dembik on all things EU and macro and John J. Hardy on FX.

Equities gunning higher, gold on the move

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2xXKsaU  
Today we discuss the major US stock indices breaking important resistance, which stocks are most aggressively on the move, and try to put the Nasdaq100 index level in context - back to early November's then all time highs! Also - noting the important divergences in the gold market as futures diverge from spot prices and much more. Today with Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy on FX.