Saxo Market Call

Skeptical on viability of oil and sentiment bounce

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3aOG1NZ 
Today we discuss the sentiment surge overnight and whether it will prove sustainable as medium term questions remain for oil and for the broader economy on how quickly normal activity can resume. We continue to see EM weak links as a possible concern and need to see more fiscal solidarity from the EU this week. Today with Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy on FX.

Concerns all around

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/344d4es  
Today we discuss concerns across asset markets, including the scale of potential forward earnings results declines, that attempts to talk the oil market higher will struggle, and in EM FX, concerns that some of the weaker links are under mounting strain. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy on FX.

April 2, 2020 - Stocks still in lockdown, crude oil jumpy

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2UVDASV  
Today we talk yesterday's ugly session for equities and weak market breadth, a jump in oil markets this morning and putting that in perspective with recent volatility, FX impacts from crude oil on NOK and CAD and much more. Today with Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy on FX.

A new quarter and binary outcomes for the short term

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2JrfTwJ  
Today we discuss the evidence that quarter end factors may have been behind much of the recent bid in equities, if we are to judge from the lurch back into risk-off overnight in Asia, though other drivers may be afoot. In any case, we ponder the risk of binary outcomes for the market here, the risk of zero dollar oil and danger of trying to bottom pick that market and much more. Today with Ole Hansen on commodities, Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy on FX.

March 31, 2020 - End of quarter, HUF, desperate times for oil producers

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2UOi1DV  
Today we discuss the key levels we are watching for risk proxies over the quarter end after the US market posted a strong session yesterday, if on very thin volume. Also, we discuss the collapse in crude prices and where that is hurting as well as how to trade a longer term recovery in prices. In FX, the focus is on risk proxies and we spotlight HUF after it closed at a record low against the EUR on the declaration of one-man rule in Hungary.

Key week ahead over quarter-end

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2UOrQl5 
Today we discuss the important week ahead as a key test of the degree to which equities and risk sentiment can maintain a rally stance and to what degree the recent surge from the lows is down to portfolio rebalancing after a very ugly Q1. Elsewhere, we talk further risk of crude oil downside and the importance of the USD move last week. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy on FX.

EU meeting disaster, pivotal session for risk

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3dADlFk  
Today we discuss yesterday's disaster of an EU meeting that challenges the path to debt mutualization. Also, yesterday's session was an important support of the stabilization narrative, but we also need to continue to see improving sentiment into the weekend as trade between two important market pivots. A discussion of oil and the USD as well on the call. Today with Christopher Dembik on macro and EU, Peter Garnry on equities, and John J. Hardy on FX.

Markets still wobbly. US jobless claims a big test.

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/2UhV39d
Today we discuss the disappointing fizzle in markets since late in the US session yesterday and where we are focusing today as especially the weekly US jobless claims represent a key sentiment test for the market as it will come out at multiples of the worst reading ever for this data series. Oil market, gold, stocks, currencies all under discussion on the call. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy on FX.