Saxo Market Call

Today, a look at the strong risk appetite rally encouraged by hopes for a respite or detente in the US-China trade war. Also, a look at some wild moves on AI-chip related moves, Amazon's big job cuts, earnings ahead, and especially, on whether the end of the precious metals meltdown could free up some focus on currencies more broadly after their recent lack of volatility, with particular focus on the JPY. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

The US and China appear to be headed toward a trade deal, or at least an agreement to come to arms-length terms to de-escalate on a number of fronts for now. This is boosting already bubbly risk sentiment further as we enter the heart of earnings season, where five of the Mag7 are reporting later this week. All the AI-related spending will be a key point of scrutiny. Also, an update on macro and FX with four central banks meeting this week, some links and podcasts listens and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we look at a market that remains hopeful the US and China are maneuvering towards a comprehensive deal, which could clear the decks of significant geopolitical uncertainty for quite some time if Xi and Trump are headed toward a friendly meeting in person next week after trade talks through Monday. With Saxo Investment Strategist Ruben Dalfovo, we also run through the key earnings reports this week and what we're looking for in next week's mother lode of reports. Macro, FX, geopolitics, must reads and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we look at a rocky session for equities as geopolitical headlines spooked the market, which is trying to figure out whether the latest US threats are just chest thumping ahead of the key talks between the US and China kicking off tomorrow or a sign that trade tensions will escalate further. Also, plenty of single company news on earnings from Tesla, IBM and others, more fun and games for quantum computing stocks, key incoming data from Japan and the US that could spike FX volatility and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Yesterday saw a low-energy session in US equity markets, though as ever with considerable turbulence and divergence beneath the surface. We also underline that in this key US-China relationship that is the focus ahead of the November 1 deadline for a new deal to emerge, China is as important as the US if it simply decides that it wants to use its leverage now and not make any concessions. The market is pricing zero risk of bad outcomes, which looks complacent, even if we have no idea what the probability distribution should be. Plenty more on on macro, FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we note the US equity market strength, but also note some of the signs that the rally is of poor quality as we continue to maintain that we are in an unsustainable bubble, while recognizing we've no ability to call even a temporary top. Also, this is a critical phase for the US-China trade talks as we don't know whether the market's optimism is justified. Thoughts on geopolitics, single stock stories, macro and FX and some compelling further reading and further listening links also on the call. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we look at the strong equity market recovery on Friday and its drivers, chiefly centred on hopes that US-China trade talks proceed in the direction of de-escalation, as sentiment related to the regional bank and private credit markets showed only marginal stabilization. Also, we refresh our impression of the precious metals markets after Friday's wild session and look at copper, crude oil and soybeans. Also, a look ahead at key US companies reporting in the coming days, US macro data that will be forthcoming this week, political developments in Japan and much more also on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we look at a relatively ugly day for the market, although the huge ugly sell-off in US regional banks was only one aspect bringing down overall sentiment, which looks suddenly rather shaky relative to what was a modest decline in the major indices. From a fresh big rally in US treasuries to a considerable spike in the VIX and crypto turning south once again, this market looks terribly nervy even as AI deal noise kept sentiment bubbly in places. Today's weekly close looks important for how sentiment shapes up as earnings season hits full stride next week even if it might be trumped by geopolitics, as discussed on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Today's links:

Brad Setser on what China is doing with its surpluses on Monetary Matters podcast, as well as its shock to the world and whether it has been the big gold buyer of late.

Henry Gao on X  - one worth following on understanding China's moves here.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.