Saxo Market Call

Spiking US long yields a dangerous moment for markets

Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we quickly discuss the dynamics driving the spike higher in long US treasury yields (and yields around the world).  This sharp rise in real yields at the long end of the curve to remarkable new highs is creating a significant danger moment for markets. Investors should move to protect their portfolios.

Here is a chart deck supporting some key points from the podcast and more. 

The Saxo Q4 Quarterly Outlook. 

Fixed-income: Keep it short if you think about bonds

We back with another episode of the Saxo Market Call following a few missed episodes. In today's episode we cover what is going on in fixed-income markets which are essentially driving everything in markets these days. We argue staying in short duration bonds across inflation-linkers, corporate quality and safe-haven due to uncertainty over timing of 'peak rates' and the outlook for a potential stagflation, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Fixed-income: How much higher can bond yields go?

In today's episode covering fixed-income we aim to answer the crucial question of how much higher bond yields can go given the latest move higher in the US 10-year yield putting pressure on equities. If energy prices remain bullish and economic data continues to look solid then the US 10-year yield could reach the 5-5.25%. In the case of weakening economic data and lower inflation the narrative in bonds could quickly turn on its head. We also talk about timing and bond carry to understand the dynamics of investing in bonds. Finally, we provide some example of credit bonds for those investors seeking high bond yields with short maturity and high credit quality, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Macro and FX: Can the higher for longer narrative continue?

Last week ended with both equities and bonds lower following the Fed's hawkish message with rates staying higher for longer to deal with inflation and the strong economy which lifted the longer end of the US yield curve. This week key event risks to monitor are the UAW wage negotiations, gasoline prices and more jitter around a potential US government shutdown. US consumer confidence figures tomorrow are also key to track and on Friday the market will get the latest PCE inflation data. Across the Atlantic in Europe, the market will get Eurozone lending survey on Wednesday and the latest inflation figures from Wednesday to Friday. Finally, we talk about China and how Saxo's clients in the APAC region have positioned themselves for a rebound in the Chinese economy through a net positive positioning in Hong Kong equities, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo

Commodities: What does a Fed soft landing mean for commodities?

In today's podcast on commodities we discuss the FOMC rate decision and what the Fed's soft landing outlook means for commodities. We discuss everything from the opportunities in gold as a hedge against monetary policy mistakes, tightness in energy markets, downside pressure in copper due to rising copper inventories, and recent developments in the agriculture sector, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Equities: Red flags in IPOs, low volatility in US equities, and earnings to watch

With the market waiting for central bank rate decisions this week we take a step back and zoom in other parts of the equity market. We discuss the several red flags in the Instacart IPO and the extremely elevated forward valuation of Arm which is three times that of the Nasdaq 100. Realized volatility has lately been very low in the US equity market and investors might begin considering adding some hedges to their portfolio which can be done in different ways, and finally we discuss the three most important earnings releases next week from Micron Technology, H&M, and Nike, with Peter Garnry.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo

Fixed-income: The US 10-year yield is on the loose

The US 10-year yield is breaking on a combination of improved economic activity in the US since May and recently a rally in oil lifting energy prices and inflation expectations. We talk about the upside and downside case on bonds, and finally we talk about interest rates in Europe and why higher bond yields in Europe are sending a different signal than in the US, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo

Macro and FX: Central banks bonanza this week

A big week ahead for financial markets with central bank decisions from the Fed, BoE, and BoJ with the market expecting no change from the Fed and BoJ, while BoE is expected to follow the ECB decision from last week hiking 25 bps. The economic landscape is getting increasingly difficult for central banks with the recent run-up in energy prices across both oil markets and uranium lifting inflation expectations and bond yields. In this podcast, we talk about the evolving economic landscape in the context of this week's major central bank decision. The key for investors will be the details in the forward-looking language and forecasts rather than the actual decision, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo