Saxo Market Call

Nvidia blasts higher ahead of earnings. What does Jackson Hole deliver?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/45C8m63   -

Today we look at the strong resurgence in US equities yesterday, particularly in the most popular speculative names like Tesla and Nvidia, which jumped over 8% yesterday, trading close to the cycle highs just ahead of its earnings report after the close tomorrow. The strong resurgence unfolded despite US yields rising sharply, with the 10- and 30-year yields posting new 15-year and 12-year highs, respectively. We look at key upcoming Treasury auctions and what the Fed's Jackson Hole conference on Friday and into the weekend may be set to deliver in terms of policy hints. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Long US treasury yields perched at cycle highs

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3P5e62S

Today, we look at the start to a new week as China disappoints once again on soft-pedaling its approach to stimulus, weighing on risk sentiment in Asia. We also wrap up last week's rather dire action in the US and other equity markets as rising yields continue to pressure valuations. The week ahead features the biggest AI name of them all as Nvidia reports on Wednesday after the market close. On the macro data front we'll have a look at preliminary August PMI's incoming on Wednesday, while the bigger focus rolls into view with the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium up on Friday and into the weekend.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Darker clouds on the horizon

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/epMS6   -

Risk-off sentiment continues in markets as worries over the Chinese economy intensify with the latest news being that Chinese property developer Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy protection in the US. The Chinese shadow banking system is likely galloping towards a significant restructuring event. In addition to Chinese weakness big moves in the long end of the US yield curve are also putting pressure on risky assets. We also talk about Nvidia's earnings next and the negative sentiment across commodity markets. In today's On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

FOMC Minutes and ugly JGB auction spook investors

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/diEK5   -

The weakness in equities continues with China's economic uncertainty being one driver and the FOMC Minutes yesterday another driver as they showed that the Fed still views inflation risks to be high and that rates will stay higher for longer. We also cover the ugly 20-year JGB auction that together with the FOMC Minutes took interest rates higher globally. In commodities we focus on copper and the general outflows in ETFs tracking commodities. Finally, we discuss terrible first-half results from European payment company Adyen and Orsted price momentum that is looking very ugly together with the rest of the green transformation segment. In today's On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

If you are not watching China, you are not paying attention

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/flR34   -

Significant risk-off session yesterday with S&P 500 futures taking out the trading ranges of the prior two trading sessions as Fitch warned of US banking downgrade including JPMorgan Chase and strong US retail sales lifted bets for one more US rate hike. But outside US equity markets focus is increasingly on China with another company missing payments and worries over the shadow banking system in China. In commodities we talk about weak crude oil causing energy stocks to be the worst performers yesterday and gold that did not like the US retail sales report. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Chinese weakness reverberates through markets

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/uJUW4   -

Equities rebounded yesterday with Nvidia shares leading the rebound, but equity futures are already turning around again with more weakness coming out of China forcing the PBoC to cut several key monetary policy rates.  Today we highlight inflation linkers in the US and also talk about the biggest outflow in ultra long-term US Treasuries in over a year. On commodities we talk about bids in copper despite Chinese weakness, gold weakness as real yields are increasing, and finally how grains futures have reacted to yesterday's US crops condition report. We also touch on Home Depot earnings expected to be released before the US market opens. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

New cracks in China’s real estate market continue to weigh on markets

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/dqNTY   -

Equity markets ended last week on a weak footing which has continued this Monday as Country Garden, China's largest real estate developer, missed coupons on some of its high-yielding investment products setting off fresh nervousness among investors. Speculators have cut positions in USD but increased their short positions on bonds highlighting that investors are betting on higher interest rates across the entire curve. In commodities traders are shredding exposure in metals and agriculture while holding on to their long positions in energy on the recent move higher. On equities, we cover Exor's new 15% stake in Philips, Nvidia's weakness on Friday, and the new bid for a takeover of US Steel. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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US inflation review, equities during stagflation, and gold weakness

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/ejmuO   -

Yesterday's US July CPI report was a non-event for the market. We discuss how the more stickier part of the inflation basket remains elevated and well above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. We also discuss equity returns during stagflation, which is our new big macro call, and what it means for equity sector returns. The high short-term bond yields continue to act as headwinds for gold and wheat is struggling to find bids looking for the WASDE report for direction. Finally, we talk about a major acquisition in the US luxury industry, Alibaba's strong Q2 results, and ending on talking about next week's earnings releases. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic