Saxo Market Call

Nasdaq 100 rebalancing and big JPY short squeeze

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XJQVho   -

Today we look at the market sentiment stabilizing overnight as China moved to extend support to the property market. With yields edging lower still yesterday, the JPY rally picked up further momentum - is that move chiefly positioning drive and will the US CPI data tomorrow offer support for USDJPY or accelerate its decline? We also discuss the Nasdaq 100 index rebalancing that is set for next week and whether this will trigger notable volatility in especially the very largest cap US stocks. Elsewhere, we discuss UK yields dropping after mixed labor market and earnings data, gold making a bid at rallying through resistance and crude oil trading into range highs. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Heavy stocks and bonds, heavy JPY crosses, heavy metals

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43k7th9   -

Today we discuss the weak close to the week for equities on Friday after the official US jobs data came in far softer than the blowout ADP private payrolls numbers the prior day. Interestingly, while long US treasury yields remained elevated, the JPY strengthened the most of any major currency versus the US dollar - is this on overextended positioning? Elsewhere, we look at TSMC's better than feared preliminary results of the last quarter, look ahead to the start of earnings season later this week, talk metals in the commodities round up and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Strong US data resets the narrative across markets

Link: Saxo's Q3 2023 Outlook - AI: The Good, the Bad and the Bubble

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/439Lyco   -

Today we discuss the strong US data yesterday, including a blowout June ADP payrolls growth number and strong June ISM Services survey print. The data blasted yields higher once again at the long end of the US yield curve, a move that markets found unsettling as it represents a tightening of financial conditions. We also discuss the very odd internals of yesterday's US equity market session and whether all corners of the market are "getting" the risk of a narrative reset: that the US economy may be reheating. In FX, we look at why the JPY strengthened, so unusual to see when US treasury yields are surging. In commodities, we discuss the conflicting forces hamstringing the market in a range and the crosswinds hitting gold as well. This and much more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US 10-year yield on the move before the key US data releases

Link: Saxo's Q3 2023 Outlook - AI: The Good, the Bad and the Bubble

Link to this episode's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rcubu5   -

Today we note yesterday's break of key chart resistance in US 10-year yields and ponder the implications while noting it is critical to watch whether the break holds through the next couple of days of incoming US macro data, especially the jobs report tomorrow. We also take an extensive look at UK gilts and whether UK yields there will compete with returns on equities, as well as how much work the BoE has to do (or core inflation has to fall) to get real yields anywhere close to neutral. A look at the JPY move overnight (in conflict with developments in US treasury yields), the upcoming US economic data calendar and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Do any of the scenarios lead to tighter financial conditions?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3PDCutb   -

Today we look at a market that is waiting for incoming data, with the long end of the US yield curve in focus as we watch whether we get stronger data and a yield surge that may tighten financial conditions, or whether soft data plays as "bad news is bad news" rather than continuing to encourage the seemingly ever easier financial conditions of late. We also note fresh "fragmentation game" angles on signals out of China and the US looking to possibly at the loophole in its restrictions on Chinese access to AI, we discuss the incoming earnings season, important perspectives for bond investors as significantly positive coupons have dramatically shifted the risk/reward in bond investing and much more Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

How quickly will EVs destroy crude oil demand?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DhGzMp   -

Today we wrap global market developments as the US headed home early yesterday for today's market and national July 4 holiday. We also discuss the remarkable adoption curve of EV's in light of this week's impressive delivery figures from Tesla and others, especially the under-appreciated scale of two- and three-wheel vehicle production, and whether crude oil demand destruction will accelerate more steeply than currently anticipated. In fixed income, the focus remains on the remarkable inversions of global yield curves, with EU- and UK swap spreads indicating more pressure on rates to rise further than in the US. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Quarter end sprint for stocks. Historic moves in grains.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CWCmNN   -

Today we discuss the further rush of buying into month- and quarter-end on Friday that took the US S&P 500 index to a new high for the cycle, with Japan following suit to open this week after a strong Tankan survey. A look at the liquidity conditions that are supporting the move of late as well and whether these are set to continue, with the next test for markets either from the long end of the yield curve (which has teased the upper range of late and will be watching the heavy data calendar this week) or in the strength or lack thereof in the upcoming earnings season. Elsewhere, we look at the most extreme relative moves in corn and soybeans in modern memory, crude oil, AUD ahead of tomorrow's RBA meeting and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Is the narrative on the economy and interest rates about to change?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pyvWBh   -

Today we question whether the treasury market's sharp reaction to yesterday's strong US weekly initial jobless claims and jump in yields reveals that the market is very poorly prepared for a change of the narrative: one that suggests the economy remains strong rather than heading toward a soft landing. All eyes on the long end of the US yield curve! If financial conditions are set to tighten and next week's data proves strong, the US dollar could be set for a significant further surge higher and volatility could pick up from the quite low levels of late. We also discuss ASML's drop, Nike's results, equity market valuations, grains and gold and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic