Saxo Market Call

Chinese weakness reverberates through markets

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/uJUW4   -

Equities rebounded yesterday with Nvidia shares leading the rebound, but equity futures are already turning around again with more weakness coming out of China forcing the PBoC to cut several key monetary policy rates.  Today we highlight inflation linkers in the US and also talk about the biggest outflow in ultra long-term US Treasuries in over a year. On commodities we talk about bids in copper despite Chinese weakness, gold weakness as real yields are increasing, and finally how grains futures have reacted to yesterday's US crops condition report. We also touch on Home Depot earnings expected to be released before the US market opens. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

New cracks in China’s real estate market continue to weigh on markets

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/dqNTY   -

Equity markets ended last week on a weak footing which has continued this Monday as Country Garden, China's largest real estate developer, missed coupons on some of its high-yielding investment products setting off fresh nervousness among investors. Speculators have cut positions in USD but increased their short positions on bonds highlighting that investors are betting on higher interest rates across the entire curve. In commodities traders are shredding exposure in metals and agriculture while holding on to their long positions in energy on the recent move higher. On equities, we cover Exor's new 15% stake in Philips, Nvidia's weakness on Friday, and the new bid for a takeover of US Steel. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US inflation review, equities during stagflation, and gold weakness

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/ejmuO   -

Yesterday's US July CPI report was a non-event for the market. We discuss how the more stickier part of the inflation basket remains elevated and well above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. We also discuss equity returns during stagflation, which is our new big macro call, and what it means for equity sector returns. The high short-term bond yields continue to act as headwinds for gold and wheat is struggling to find bids looking for the WASDE report for direction. Finally, we talk about a major acquisition in the US luxury industry, Alibaba's strong Q2 results, and ending on talking about next week's earnings releases. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Our stagflation light call explained

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/inqJ8   -

The AI rally with Nvidia at its center is showing cracks with our bubble stocks basket down 13% this month and Nvidia shares breaking down technically yesterday. In today's episode we have also invited our Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen to talk in more details about his big call that the economy will enter a stagflation light environment. We also touch on today's US July CPI report and what it means for bonds, the big move yesterday in natural gas due potential Australian LNG supply risks and finally we talk earnings from Novo Nordisk, Siemens, and Disney. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Steen Jakobsen on macro, and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Will US CPI report accelerate bets on rate cuts?

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/lzC57   -

Today we discuss the possibility of stagflation in the years to come as our Chief Investment Officer Steen Jacobsen laid out the arguments for why such a scenario could play out. In daily grind of financial markets we discuss tomorrow's US July CPI report which is expecting to see another month of core CPI at 0.2% m/m. If US inflation continues to ease it could mark the peak in the Fed Funds Rate and accelerate bets on rate cuts next year. We also discuss the troubles at WeWork, oil markets, Novo Nordisk's 17% rally yesterday on good Wegocy trial data on heart risk, and the clarification from the Italian government on the new extra bank tax. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Weak Chinese data jolt markets with fresh risk-off sentiment

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/hnrHW   -

Risk-off sentiment is coming back into markets today after disappointing July export figures from China confirming the weakness in the global manufacturing sector and risks to the global economy in the later part of the year. Equity futures are headed lower but in a bigger context still not showing signs of an incoming recession, so the direction in the bond market will be crucial to watch in the coming weeks and months, and especially given the recent curve steepening in US Treasuries. Commodities have lately been doing well due to tight supplies across many key commodities including oil, but some weakness has arrived on the back of disappointing demand linked to China's lack of economic momentum. With the market now pricing six Fed rate cuts by January 2025 we expect gold to come back into focus in the coming months. Finally, we talk about the surprise extra tax on Italian banks, Glencore's whopping 50% decline in EBITDA, and Palantir's positive revenue outlook last night. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Special Edition: Deep dive on trading the energy markets

Slide: https://bit.ly/450p3Ia   -

In this Special Edition podcast, Saxo head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen takes us on a deep dive into the energy markets, with a rundown of supply and demand drivers, how balanced the market is these days, what the forward curve for oil tells us about the market, why refined products are as important to follow as crude oil itself, ways to trade the energy markets and much more. John J. Hardy hosts.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Inscrutable Bank of Japan will have to surprise someone

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3OwkuA1   -

Today we discuss the FOMC meeting, which brought the expected data dependency and a complete lack of new guidance, which has allowed the US dollar to continue lower as the VIX pushes back at the cycle lows. Meta reported strong results after the close, helping to take US S&P 500 futures to new highs for the cycle. We look forward to the ECB meeting today and wonder whether Lagarde and company have already pre-empted any ability to surprise with the recent shift to less hawkish rhetoric. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, can only surprise the market as we are all quite uncertain on their course of action from here. In upcoming earnings, we spotlight Intel and note important inflation data up tomorrow on the macro calendar. Today's pod is hosted by John J. Hardy.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic