Saxo Market Call

How quickly will EVs destroy crude oil demand?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DhGzMp   -

Today we wrap global market developments as the US headed home early yesterday for today's market and national July 4 holiday. We also discuss the remarkable adoption curve of EV's in light of this week's impressive delivery figures from Tesla and others, especially the under-appreciated scale of two- and three-wheel vehicle production, and whether crude oil demand destruction will accelerate more steeply than currently anticipated. In fixed income, the focus remains on the remarkable inversions of global yield curves, with EU- and UK swap spreads indicating more pressure on rates to rise further than in the US. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Quarter end sprint for stocks. Historic moves in grains.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CWCmNN   -

Today we discuss the further rush of buying into month- and quarter-end on Friday that took the US S&P 500 index to a new high for the cycle, with Japan following suit to open this week after a strong Tankan survey. A look at the liquidity conditions that are supporting the move of late as well and whether these are set to continue, with the next test for markets either from the long end of the yield curve (which has teased the upper range of late and will be watching the heavy data calendar this week) or in the strength or lack thereof in the upcoming earnings season. Elsewhere, we look at the most extreme relative moves in corn and soybeans in modern memory, crude oil, AUD ahead of tomorrow's RBA meeting and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Is the narrative on the economy and interest rates about to change?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pyvWBh   -

Today we question whether the treasury market's sharp reaction to yesterday's strong US weekly initial jobless claims and jump in yields reveals that the market is very poorly prepared for a change of the narrative: one that suggests the economy remains strong rather than heading toward a soft landing. All eyes on the long end of the US yield curve! If financial conditions are set to tighten and next week's data proves strong, the US dollar could be set for a significant further surge higher and volatility could pick up from the quite low levels of late. We also discuss ASML's drop, Nike's results, equity market valuations, grains and gold and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

What can blast us out of this low vol rut?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pq1Fog   -

Today, we note volatility still stuck in a rut as the concerns of coming US export restrictions on AI-chips failed to get any traction yesterday. The US yield curve is frozen in place and we ponder what might change the dynamics and blast us out of this period of remarkable calm. In FX, the USD is firming, while sterling was sent lower by BoE rhetoric yesterday. We also look at gold, crude oil, incoming earnings and the macro calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Is Nvidia set to hit an air pocket on new US export restrictions?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42WYm5O   -

Today, our top story is the news that broke late yesterday suggesting the Biden administration may look at slapping new export restrictions on AI-related chips and how this casts a shadow on Nvidia's recent explosive share price rise. The news took Nvidia and AMD shares sharply back lower after the close yesterday. We delve into whether Nvidia's recent blowout quarter is in part due to panic buying from China ahead of anticipated restrictions and whether its longer term guidance is over-reliant on Chinese demand that may not be realized due to these restrictions. Elsewhere, we look at the latest moves in FX and commodities, where gold is under pressure near key support and crude oil is also languishing near cycle support. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

High flyers get big haircut, but fear levels very low.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44jjofR   -

Today we look at another weak day for equities, with the selling concentrated in the mega-cap and AI-linked names after a Goldman downgrade of Tesla. Despite the extension of the sell-off, market fear measures remain very low. In FX, China puts up a fight against the yuan weakening trend. In corporate credit, we note an interesting turn for the worse in high yield relative to investment grade debt, noting the high nominal rates that less credit-worthy names will have to refinance at in this environment. We also preview debt-addled Walgreen Boots Alliance, which is reporting earnings today, as well as focusing on what to watch for in today's US data, particularly the June Consumer Confidence report up later today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Bull market status teetering in places

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43Z2TFZ   -

Today we discuss equity markets where the bull market status is teetering, and the weak internals in many themes and sectors in the US even as the headline advance has not yet reversed much of the recent large rally wave. We take a look at the limited impact from the kerfuffle in Russia at the weekend, note the importance of food prices, especially driven by wheat. We also offer some thoughts on where we stand with the AI theme, outline the incoming earnings reports for the week ahead, interesting stretched positioning in some currencies, and more. Today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Perilous narrowness in US equity market. Bonds to crowd out stocks?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/431EFJT   -

Today we discuss the strong return of AI-driven animal spirits in yesterday's US equity market session, as AI-linked names dragged the averages higher while most sectors and the average stock posted an unimpressive day. In FX, we note the inability of the Norwegian krone and pound sterling to get a boost from large rate hikes yesterday from Norges Bank and the BoE. Elsewhere, we wonder when strong bond yields might see bonds beginning to crowd out stock allocations, particularly in the UK. We also discuss the recent rally in grains and how to gain exposure to agriculture via agribusiness stocks. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic