Saxo Market Call

A weak market, but a VIX shrug. Norges Bank goes 50.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42XXv4G   -

Today we look at another weak day for the US equity market, but note that the VIX continues to shrug off the soft risk sentiment, closing at a new cycle low yesterday. We cover the hefty menu of central banks meeting today, with the Norges Bank hiking 50 basis points (market was divided on what they would do) as we were recording the podcast. We also look at heavily inverted yield curves, whether the Bank of England can deliver sufficiently hawkish guidance today to clear the bar of expectations, stocks to watch, including in agribusiness as grain prices are soaring and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Speculative pockets shine even on a down day

Link to slide deck:   https://bit.ly/3XhX43Y  -

Today we note that, despite the first negative day in some time in the US market yesterday, pockets of pronounced strength were found in many speculative names. Our Global Risk Indicator also shows the scale of improvement in financial conditions of late and suggests that the speculative energy may have room to extend. In FX, we note the interesting market reception of another new cycle high in UK core CPI this morning, as the market wonders whether the Bailey Bank of England has the right stuff to deliver as much tightening as is currently priced into the forward curve. We also talk the wildly strong US housing starts number yesterday, earnings to watch today and more.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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PBoC disappoints the market questioning stimulus pace

Link to slide deck: bit.ly/3PmO5wz   -

The energy is quite low across markets outside the fixed-income market with a lot of action this week around BoE and upcoming UK macro figures including CPI. PBoC cut the key 5-year benchmark rate in China by 10 basis points but the market was looking for 15 basis points. Chinese equities were disappointed extending their selloff from yesterday adding fresh worries that China is more constrained that initially believed when it comes to backstop demand and lifting economic activity. We also discuss FedEx earnings which is scheduled for after the US market close. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and Peter Garnry on equities.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Liquidity fears have been the boy who cried wolf...so far

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/444wOMS   -

Today we look at the market closing last week on a slight dip after the prior furious run higher. One issue that has failed to trigger any market turmoil of late has been the US Treasury rebuilding its reserves, possibly as liquidity "stored" in the Fed's repo facility may provide some offset, at least for now. Elsewhere, we take a look at the rapid repositioning unfolding in the grains market on supply concerns in part driven by El Nino, copper and crude oil, EU versus US real rates, a preview of the Bank of England meeting this week and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Hawkish ECB gets traction, especially as BoJ remains unmoved.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43J0fnE   -

Today we break down the answers to our latest Listeners' Survey, with more discussion of your questions coming up next week. Today we look at the surprisingly hawkish ECB, which doubled down on its guidance for more tightening, particularly via sharp upward revisions to inflation and labor costs for coming years. This gave the euro plenty of traction for extending its rally, aided by a soft US jobless claims number and on the Bank of Japan failing to even hint at plans to tweak policy overnight. The yen is in a death spiral. Elsewhere, we look at what has  been a very strong month for the commodities complex, discuss Adobe's results and the very busy week ahead on the macro calendar with another bonanza of central banks. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

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FOMC’s hawkish hold pressurizes BoJ. Adobe faces big test.

The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6     -

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Nc0tg4   -

Today we breakdown the FOMC's hawkish hold and the market's reaction to the upgrade of the outlook on the economy and higher dot plot projection for the Fed Funds rate for this year and the next two years as the Fed delivered a "higher for longer" message. We also preview the ECB and note that the long end of the US yield curve is the most critical, especially for pressure on the JPY, which has ratcheted dramatically higher ahead of a now critical meeting for the Bank of Japan. If yields continue higher, the BoJ must signal a willingness to tweak or risk further disorderly JPY declines. In stocks to watch, we note US homebuilder Lennar's strong results and highlight tonight's Adobe earnings call as the stock has ramped higher on anticipation of a boost from its new AI-driven products. This and more n today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Market extends melt-up into today’s FOMC

The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6  -   

Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NdNI4W   -

Today we look at the market continuing its melt-up into today's FOMC meeting after yesterday's benign CPI , which most believe will bring a pause and only slightly better than 50/50 odds for a final July hike, although further out the curve, the market is moderating its bets on Fed cuts and treasury yields rose all along the curve yesterday. Will the Fed pushback or deliver on market expectations? In fixed income, we focus on the 30-year US T-bond yield and the huge rise in UK gilt yields. In commodities, copper is teasing key levels, while gold is pushing on key supports in places as risk sentiment and yields are on the rise. In equities to watch, we note AMD delivering a new chip that will go head-to-head with NVidia chips. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Will the Fed’s third mandate be in play tomorrow?

The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6 -    

Link to slide deck for today's podcast: https://bit.ly/3Pc1lnA   -

Today, we look at the market rally extending higher and verging on melt-up status. On that note, interesting to see whether the Fed's "third mandate" of financial conditions, or arguably the S&P 500, will play any role in its decision on whether to hike tomorrow, with most believing the Fed is set to pause and possibly hike in July. Of course, today's CPI will weigh as well. We also talk commodities after China's surprise rate cut, including copper, corn and uranium and note the AI-hype in individual equity names bordering on the absurd as seen in yesterday's Oracle earnings report and related headlines. This an more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic