Saxo Market Call

Extreme divergence in equity market internals over last week

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ILNoZJ   -

Today, we note the extreme divergence in equity market themes over the last week that is a hidden development underneath the strong performance of the major US indices on Friday. We look at the moderate impact thus far of the debt ceiling agreement-in-principle reached at the weekend, discuss the strong earnings season and few interesting names set to report this week. Energy and the European natural gas market are in focus in commodities while we also try to gauge where we are in terms of timing an eventual recession with US yield-curve and consumer confidence survey indicators. This and more in today's, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Deep dive: Investing in commodities through futures and stocks.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3q82UbL   -

This special episode of the podcast features an in-depth view on how to invest in commodities, one of the more difficult to understand asset classes at first glance for the novice, whether using futures, equities and other exchange traded products. The podcast is hosted by Saxo Head of FX Strategy, John Hardy and features Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy and Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy. This episode was recorded on Wednesday, May 24, 2023.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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US Treasury Yields turning the screws. Also: this is a Listeners’ Edition!

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IIo7PR   -

Today we do a brief market wrap as US treasury yields continue to ratchet higher as a possible debt ceiling deal may be looming and as we ponder how that could alter the landscape. But the bulk of today's podcast is dedicated to the results from our latest Listener survey, rounding up the SMC listener's thoughts on where the US equity market, commodities and the US dollar are headed and addressing some of the many topics that our listeners thoughtfully forward. We'll round up some answers to more of these great questions in next Friday's podcast. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Nvidia and the AI bubble risk as its valuation nears $1 trillion

Latest Saxo Market Call Survey will be available until 1400 CET on May 25. If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Editions podcasts:  https://bit.ly/3OEFntn   -

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IEHtoZ   - 

Today we look at yesterday's session, which was mostly downbeat as US treasury yields continue to back up, but then with a huge change of tune in late trading on Nvidia results beating handily and guidance smashing expectations on company anticipating a bonanza of AI-related chip sales. We do a deep dive on the company's valuation and outlook and wonder, at 29.2 x sales (before the big jump after hours) whether the company's future growth can live up to the hype. Elsewhere, we look at another slide in copper prices, the performance of uranium prices and ETFs, key FX themes and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

An ugly feeling about yesterday’s pivot

Latest Saxo Market Call Survey is now available! If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Editions podcasts: https://bit.ly/3OEFntn   - 

Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IH63FR   -

Today we assess yesterday's market downdraft and some of the reasons it is giving us an uneasy feeling, particularly with unknown volatility risk from rampant speculation in short term options in the mix. The big mark-down in luxury stocks was also a key signal. As well, we break down massive core inflation surprise in the UK and what it might mean for sterling and gilts, the debt ceiling lessons from 2011 for the US treasury market, key stocks reporting earnings, including NVidia today and much more. Note that we are saving the deep dive podcast on commodities for later release. Stay tuned for that. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Are equity investors missing what treasury investors see?

The latest Saxo Market Call Survey is now available! If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Editions podcasts: https://bit.ly/3OEFntn  -

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3WwUirs   -

Today we look at building tensions as US equities trade sideways at elevated levels for the cycle while US treasury yields rose once again to new highs since the March banking system turmoil. We wonder whether equity market investors are complacent on the risks of a liquidity pinch once the US debt ceiling issue is (presumably) resolved. We also take a look at Japanese and even Greek equities, two star-performing markets this year, the reaction to Zoom's earnings report, the upcoming RBNZ meeting, crude oil and gold and positioning and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Debt ceiling talks a headline risk nuisance this week.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3q5bWGh   -

Today we discuss the collapse in the US debt ceiling talks on Friday, with little to guide us on what happens next, but with markets mostly in a complacent mood on the issue. We also look at China's partial ban on Chinese companies using US chip-maker Micron's products, upcoming earnings this week, including Nvidia, which has been bulled up on its links to powering the AI future. In commodities, the focus is on grains and other softs already seeing a possible impact from the shift to an El Nino climate pattern. Gold technicals also deserve a mention as higher us treasury yields pressure higher. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Debt ceiling soon solved? Careful what you wish for...

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pWMzGU   -

Today is the second of our Saxo Market Call Listeners' Editions, prefaced with a brief market wrap from yesterday, which produced a strong rally extension in the US equity markets, supposedly on hopes that a debt ceiling deal is near, but also on benign economic data. With treasury yields also on the rise, it felt like the market expressing a belief in an improving economic outlook. On the debt ceiling issue, we caution that a solution could lead to a severe liquidity crunch as the US treasury rebuilds its reserves. The bulk of today's podcast is a look at listener questions from our survey last week. Stay tuned early next week for the next Saxo Market Call listener survey. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic