Saxo Market Call

Equities marching higher on AI and mega caps focus

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3zkMuOK   -

In today's podcast we talk about the improved momentum in equities driven by technology stocks and especially with yesterday's best performing theme being semiconductors driven by AI focus, strong EV demand, and improving demand for memory chips in data centers. We also talk Sweden as a showcase of the impact from tighter credit conditions and the new financial year in Japan. On commodities we cover oil with a focus on recent changes to the Brent crude contract and the slowing production in the US due to cost pressures, lastly on commodities we highlight recent developments in the grain markets. Finally, we cover better than expected earnings from H&M and talk about US non-financial corporate profit margins reached the highest levels in 2022 since the end of WWII. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Equities extend momentum led by energy

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3zdrdX2   -

Risk sentiment is on the rise with the second straight session yesterday in equities with procyclical industry groups such as energy, transportation, banks, and mining rallying. Today's sentiment is extended with news that Alibaba is splitting into six separate business rallying 13% on the news. We also got a strong outlook from Lululemon yesterday and better than expected US March consumer confidence highlighting a strong US economy despite the obvious cracks at banks and real estate. In today's podcast we also cover the positive momentum in oil markets and gold that continues to benefit from the recent nervousness over banks. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities..

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Bank stocks bounce, broader market uninspired by relief

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3TMxqmn   -

Today we note that, while bank stocks bounced strongly in the US yesterday and yields mean reverted back higher, the broader market was uninspired by these developments and tech stocks sold off after failing once again to take out the key cycle resistance. We continue to fret the next shoes to drop and bemoan the lack of good indicators to get a sense of where the worst pressures in the system lie (likely in the darker corners of shadow banking and private equity). A look at rebounding commodities, especially oil and copper, stocks to watch, the macro calendar ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Markets try to stabilize, but looking for next shoe to drop.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JQz81z   -

Today we look at the market trying to breathe a sigh of relief, but with concerns lingering, not only on the risk of another round of bank turmoil as the weakest links may be in commercial real estate and real estate exposures, but also on the likelihood that this latest crisis has brought the recession forward via an incoming credit crunch. We delve into earnings for the week ahead, commodities positioning and precious metals, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The unbearable tightness of bank funding

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3TD3fhj   -

Today we look at the multi-speed market, as tech stocks tried to pump on vague new language from US Treasury Secretary Yellen aimed at softening prior comments on the official posture to banking system turmoil. Alas, US bank stocks were in for a further drubbing yesterday and we also discuss the negative focus on European banks is pummeling sentiment into early trading in Europe as well. Also on the call: the knock-on effects of all of this into FX, earnings watch next week, the China re-opening story fighting for attention and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Yellen statement on deposits spooks market, while Powell thoroughly ignored.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/40eSCUn   -

Today we look at the market's negative reaction to Yellen clearly stating that she has never discussed "anything having to do with blanket insurance or guarantees of deposits" at the same time Powell was holding the FOMC press conference. While the Fed kept its dot plot policy forecasts unchanged, the market ignored this as the Fed is clearly pivoting with this latest statement, which introduced new language on recent developments impacting credit conditions and the economy. We assess the impact of Yellen's statements across markets, including gold and FX, consider the situation for European banks, especially on real estate pressures, note stocks to watch, preview the Bank of England today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Catch 22 for the FOMC: market leans for a hike, but...

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3TDgNtk   -

Today we discuss the uncertainty around the Fed's interest rate decision and guidance at today's FOMC meeting, where the Powell Fed faces the unenviable task of weighing financial stability risks against ongoing inflation risks, with the market leaning more strongly for a hike now but watching whether the Fed is willing to cave on its "higher for longer" forward guidance. And in the event the Fed does pause, will the market celebrate this or be spooked that the Fed sees things as worse than feared? We also look at where unease is greatest among global banks, note hot UK CPI numbers in this morning, crude oil, grains positioning surprises and gold. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Are markets too calm? Will FOMC play ball with market expectations?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3yVYfei   -

Today we look at the eerie calm across markets after the two consecutive weekend interventions to deal with systemic risks from failing banks. We also discuss whether the FOMC will be willing to market its forecasts anywhere near where market expectations have shifted in its forward guidance at tomorrow's meeting, look at copper, natural gas and platinum, stocks to watch, including Amazon, where we wonder if activist investors could soon make an appearance and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic