Saxo Market Call

Fed Chair Powell hawkish blast unsettles markets again.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kVUQZw   -

Today we look at the market swooning as it is forced to price the Fed terminal rate higher still after Fed Chair Powell pointed to higher rates than previously expected and even expressed a willingness to re-accelerate the pace of hikes if the "totality" of data points toward higher inflation risks again. We also look at the reaction to Powell's rhetoric in the US yield curve and across commodities and FX. Thoughts on earnings from cybersecurity firms Darktrace and Crowdstrike and from Adidas and much more also on today's pod, which features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Triangulating ahead of the event risk blitz. RBA policy mistake?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L16cpC   -

Today we look at the choppy equity market failing to extend the upside momentum for now as we triangulate mid-range ahead of a series of event risks, among these two days of Fed Chair Powell testimony starting today. Overnight, Australia's RBA announced a dovish hike, clearly looking for excuses to pause its tightening regime - is this a policy mistake in the making? We also look at evidence on what may have driven China's about-face on stimulating its economy, crude oil, natgas and wheat & other grain markets and much more. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Bulls celebrate yield dip. Heavy central bank calendar this week.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Zp2Y3s   -

Today we look at the strong comeback in equity markets Friday as yields dipped sharply, providing some relief after the recent strong ramp higher. Still, it is interesting to note that inflation expectations may be undergoing a sea change as well, which has come to the aid of gold. Elsewhere, we gauge the market reaction to China's policy signals, note the busy week ahead on the central bank front, with the RBA up tonight, Fed Chair Powell out speaking in testimony before Congressional panels tomorrow and Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Friday, which will be Governor Kuroda's final meeting. This and much more on today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Neither bulls nor bears have conviction here. Week ahead a big one for macro.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3SJstKl   -

Today we discuss the lack of conviction in the market after the action spilled lower below the 200-day moving average but failed to follow through and backed up to close the session higher, despite fresh pressure from rising yields, as the 10-year treasury benchmark took out the 4.00% level. In equities, a breakdown of what European equities have to offer relative to US equities. In commodities, focus on gold and natural gas. A look at the week ahead calendar for both earnings and especially macro as well. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Tesla nothingburger and 4.0% 10-yr yield sets market on tilt

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/41Bzt00   -

Today we look at the market closing on a weak note on a fresh rise in Treasury yields and then spilling lower in later trading after Tesla's investor event was a damp squib. Elsewhere, inflation remains very much on the brain in Europe, with today's Eurozone-wide inflation print for February rounding out the set of February CPI reports across the bloc. In FX, sterling feels the heat on dithering BoE governor Bailey. In commodities, the latest on copper and crude oil and in equities, thoughts on where we are in the current historic drawdown. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The China reopening narrative tries to get back on the rails.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3EOkrdE   -

Today we look at the stunning official February Manufacturing PMI numbers out China overnight, which suggested the most rapid pace of expansion in China's manufacturing sector in over a decade. We look at how this development propagated through commodities and currencies, as well as the impact on EU rates after hot CPI numbers from France and Spain yesterday. Thoughts on inflation and real growth, stocks and earnings to watch, weakening US Consumer Confidence expectations and what that signals and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Can yields also be the cart and not the horse?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3m6SAyJ   -

Today we look at yields remaining near cycle highs, with US equities struggling into the close after an odd, intraday rally stumbled. Note that end of month is rolling into view today after a terrible month for bonds, with the US 2-year yield up 60 basis points month-to-date into today. On that note, we delve into whether yields really have any bearing on company investment. Elsewhere, pondering what inspires crude to pull itself out of the range, forward curves in the commodity space, the struggling JPY, Tesla's incoming Investor Day and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US PCE inflation data spikes yields, but US equities hold the line.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IVT2IZ   -

The hot core US January PCE inflation data spooked markets on Friday as the market was forced to take Fed rate hike expectations to new cycle highs, with even discussion of the possibility of a 50-bp hike at the March FOMC meeting. Equities have been quick to recover as critical support held Friday, but the USD is firmer. Elsewhere, we note the many assets linked to the China reopening narrative struggling, from copper and other metals to AUD, etc., we also look at grain prices hitting new 1-year lows, look at the focus for equity markets this week on incoming earnings and more. Today's pod features Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic