Saxo Market Call

The China recovery narrative struggling

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KDjvfJ   -

Today we look at the expression of the China recovery narrative in markets continuing to struggle, with the Chinese currency weakening and commodities generally under pressure, with a fresh sell-off in copper overnight that reversed the recent rally. In FX, the Aussie weak on that account, while the JPY is adrift after a damp squib from Ueda's nomination hearings. Elsewhere, we delve into shareholder yield perspective for the US market, European listed companies closing in on the US in earnings margin performance, the still fragile sentiment backdrop on geopolitical concerns. We also look at the week ahead in earnings and macro data. Today's pod features Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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The next support levels are the bigger ones for a capitulation

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xLbvSf    -

Today we look at market sentiment remaining fragile ahead of the next support levels for the major US indices, which are the important ones for a . We again highlight the geopolitical risks as a possible trigger for a significant capitulation in sentiment, even as rising yields are already driving concerns. We discuss the comedy of NVidia continuing to pretend that crypto-mining doesn't exist, delve into the struggling China recovery narrative as expressed by commodities, the JPY focus in FX tonight as Japan reports CPI and BoJ Governor nominee Ueda is set to testify and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Helmets on as yields pressure, stocks plunge

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KupfIF   -

Today we break down the worst session in US equities in some two months, as traders finally wake up to the risks of higher treasury yields, but also possibly on concerns that wage pressures may drive a negative impact on corporate margins. On that front, interesting to note the market reaction to Walmart and Home Depot earnings and guidance. A look at FX themes, earnings and macro data ahead and more also on the today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

This limbo unlikely to last as geopolitics weigh.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kauWkq   -

Today we are watching and waiting for the US to come back online after the three-day weekend as the close on Friday has kept equity markets and the US dollar in limbo. We discuss the remarkably steep natural gas forward curve at length and what it is telling us, highlight interesting retail names reporting earnings today in the US, and note the huge headline risks in geopolitics as Russia's Putin is out speaking today with China's top diplomat in Moscow. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Geopolitical risks crowd out all other considerations for now

Link to slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3Ensvlf   -

Today we look at the solid bounce in risk sentiment on Friday ahead of a three-day weekend in the US (where markets are closed for Presidents Day today) as US treasury yields rolled over and took the USD lower as well, a bearish reversal for the greenback just as it was trying to break free to the upside. In commodities, we focus on copper and crude and the lack of follow-through in the China re-opening narrative. In FX, we touch on the USD reversal, the JPY this week and NZD and SEK. In stocks to watch, a discussion of Deere and its strong results on Friday as well as the busy week ahead in earnings reports, where a wide variety of companies are reporting. But drowning out everything is the risk of an escalation in the US-China confrontation after the US warned China in stark language against providing lethal aid to Russia. This after VP Harris charged Russia with crimes against humanity in its assault on Ukraine. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market nerves fraying on US yield pressure. Big OpEx today.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/414Ihem   -

Today we look at risk sentiment spooked badly yesterday, first by strong US data, and then later by a Tesla recall announcement that suddenly cratered the most speculative corner of the options market ahead of the weekly expiry for Tesla options today. US 10-year yields are near the pivot highs from late December and ahead of heavy new issuance incoming next week. We also discuss our new luxury theme basket which we think will be a more "pure luxury" collection of companies than many of the broader luxury ETF's out there. The latest in FX, the earnings and macro calendars for the week ahead and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Animal spirits or casino spirits?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3lIYIgf   -

Today we look at the equity market remaining buoyant if not yet following through higher, even as US treasury yields remain pinned near the highs of the cycle after strong US Retail Sales yesterday. Also, we have a possible interesting twist in the US seasonals and a warning from JPMorgan's options expert on the "Volmaggedon 2.0" risks from the 0DTE options trading. Stocks to watch, including Shopify and Nestle, and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

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Fed terminal rate hits new high. China recovery story stumbling?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3lwPzr7   -

Today we look at the market's unsuccessful attempt to draw meaning from yesterday's CPI data, but US yields ending the day near the highs for the cycle, in terms of Fed expectation ahead of today's US January Retail Sales print. We also look at a significant change of temperature in the China recovery story overnight, discuss AirBnB results and outlook as a sign of a resilient US economy and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic