Saxo Market Call

Is Nvidia set to hit an air pocket on new US export restrictions?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42WYm5O   -

Today, our top story is the news that broke late yesterday suggesting the Biden administration may look at slapping new export restrictions on AI-related chips and how this casts a shadow on Nvidia's recent explosive share price rise. The news took Nvidia and AMD shares sharply back lower after the close yesterday. We delve into whether Nvidia's recent blowout quarter is in part due to panic buying from China ahead of anticipated restrictions and whether its longer term guidance is over-reliant on Chinese demand that may not be realized due to these restrictions. Elsewhere, we look at the latest moves in FX and commodities, where gold is under pressure near key support and crude oil is also languishing near cycle support. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

High flyers get big haircut, but fear levels very low.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44jjofR   -

Today we look at another weak day for equities, with the selling concentrated in the mega-cap and AI-linked names after a Goldman downgrade of Tesla. Despite the extension of the sell-off, market fear measures remain very low. In FX, China puts up a fight against the yuan weakening trend. In corporate credit, we note an interesting turn for the worse in high yield relative to investment grade debt, noting the high nominal rates that less credit-worthy names will have to refinance at in this environment. We also preview debt-addled Walgreen Boots Alliance, which is reporting earnings today, as well as focusing on what to watch for in today's US data, particularly the June Consumer Confidence report up later today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Bull market status teetering in places

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43Z2TFZ   -

Today we discuss equity markets where the bull market status is teetering, and the weak internals in many themes and sectors in the US even as the headline advance has not yet reversed much of the recent large rally wave. We take a look at the limited impact from the kerfuffle in Russia at the weekend, note the importance of food prices, especially driven by wheat. We also offer some thoughts on where we stand with the AI theme, outline the incoming earnings reports for the week ahead, interesting stretched positioning in some currencies, and more. Today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Perilous narrowness in US equity market. Bonds to crowd out stocks?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/431EFJT   -

Today we discuss the strong return of AI-driven animal spirits in yesterday's US equity market session, as AI-linked names dragged the averages higher while most sectors and the average stock posted an unimpressive day. In FX, we note the inability of the Norwegian krone and pound sterling to get a boost from large rate hikes yesterday from Norges Bank and the BoE. Elsewhere, we wonder when strong bond yields might see bonds beginning to crowd out stock allocations, particularly in the UK. We also discuss the recent rally in grains and how to gain exposure to agriculture via agribusiness stocks. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A weak market, but a VIX shrug. Norges Bank goes 50.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42XXv4G   -

Today we look at another weak day for the US equity market, but note that the VIX continues to shrug off the soft risk sentiment, closing at a new cycle low yesterday. We cover the hefty menu of central banks meeting today, with the Norges Bank hiking 50 basis points (market was divided on what they would do) as we were recording the podcast. We also look at heavily inverted yield curves, whether the Bank of England can deliver sufficiently hawkish guidance today to clear the bar of expectations, stocks to watch, including in agribusiness as grain prices are soaring and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Speculative pockets shine even on a down day

Link to slide deck:   https://bit.ly/3XhX43Y  -

Today we note that, despite the first negative day in some time in the US market yesterday, pockets of pronounced strength were found in many speculative names. Our Global Risk Indicator also shows the scale of improvement in financial conditions of late and suggests that the speculative energy may have room to extend. In FX, we note the interesting market reception of another new cycle high in UK core CPI this morning, as the market wonders whether the Bailey Bank of England has the right stuff to deliver as much tightening as is currently priced into the forward curve. We also talk the wildly strong US housing starts number yesterday, earnings to watch today and more.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

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PBoC disappoints the market questioning stimulus pace

Link to slide deck: bit.ly/3PmO5wz   -

The energy is quite low across markets outside the fixed-income market with a lot of action this week around BoE and upcoming UK macro figures including CPI. PBoC cut the key 5-year benchmark rate in China by 10 basis points but the market was looking for 15 basis points. Chinese equities were disappointed extending their selloff from yesterday adding fresh worries that China is more constrained that initially believed when it comes to backstop demand and lifting economic activity. We also discuss FedEx earnings which is scheduled for after the US market close. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and Peter Garnry on equities.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Liquidity fears have been the boy who cried wolf...so far

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/444wOMS   -

Today we look at the market closing last week on a slight dip after the prior furious run higher. One issue that has failed to trigger any market turmoil of late has been the US Treasury rebuilding its reserves, possibly as liquidity "stored" in the Fed's repo facility may provide some offset, at least for now. Elsewhere, we take a look at the rapid repositioning unfolding in the grains market on supply concerns in part driven by El Nino, copper and crude oil, EU versus US real rates, a preview of the Bank of England meeting this week and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic