Saxo Market Call

Hawkish ECB gets traction, especially as BoJ remains unmoved.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43J0fnE   -

Today we break down the answers to our latest Listeners' Survey, with more discussion of your questions coming up next week. Today we look at the surprisingly hawkish ECB, which doubled down on its guidance for more tightening, particularly via sharp upward revisions to inflation and labor costs for coming years. This gave the euro plenty of traction for extending its rally, aided by a soft US jobless claims number and on the Bank of Japan failing to even hint at plans to tweak policy overnight. The yen is in a death spiral. Elsewhere, we look at what has  been a very strong month for the commodities complex, discuss Adobe's results and the very busy week ahead on the macro calendar with another bonanza of central banks. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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FOMC’s hawkish hold pressurizes BoJ. Adobe faces big test.

The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6     -

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Nc0tg4   -

Today we breakdown the FOMC's hawkish hold and the market's reaction to the upgrade of the outlook on the economy and higher dot plot projection for the Fed Funds rate for this year and the next two years as the Fed delivered a "higher for longer" message. We also preview the ECB and note that the long end of the US yield curve is the most critical, especially for pressure on the JPY, which has ratcheted dramatically higher ahead of a now critical meeting for the Bank of Japan. If yields continue higher, the BoJ must signal a willingness to tweak or risk further disorderly JPY declines. In stocks to watch, we note US homebuilder Lennar's strong results and highlight tonight's Adobe earnings call as the stock has ramped higher on anticipation of a boost from its new AI-driven products. This and more n today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Market extends melt-up into today’s FOMC

The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6  -   

Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NdNI4W   -

Today we look at the market continuing its melt-up into today's FOMC meeting after yesterday's benign CPI , which most believe will bring a pause and only slightly better than 50/50 odds for a final July hike, although further out the curve, the market is moderating its bets on Fed cuts and treasury yields rose all along the curve yesterday. Will the Fed pushback or deliver on market expectations? In fixed income, we focus on the 30-year US T-bond yield and the huge rise in UK gilt yields. In commodities, copper is teasing key levels, while gold is pushing on key supports in places as risk sentiment and yields are on the rise. In equities to watch, we note AMD delivering a new chip that will go head-to-head with NVidia chips. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Will the Fed’s third mandate be in play tomorrow?

The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6 -    

Link to slide deck for today's podcast: https://bit.ly/3Pc1lnA   -

Today, we look at the market rally extending higher and verging on melt-up status. On that note, interesting to see whether the Fed's "third mandate" of financial conditions, or arguably the S&P 500, will play any role in its decision on whether to hike tomorrow, with most believing the Fed is set to pause and possibly hike in July. Of course, today's CPI will weigh as well. We also talk commodities after China's surprise rate cut, including copper, corn and uranium and note the AI-hype in individual equity names bordering on the absurd as seen in yesterday's Oracle earnings report and related headlines. This an more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Can FOMC and BoJ pop the rapidly inflating bubble?

The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6   -

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43VKnxQ   -

Today, we continue to discuss the building market bubble, with little sense of whether the FOMC and/or the BoJ this week will bring enough to the table to provide notable pushback. Regarding the FOMC, we wonder, given the March forecasts, why the Fed won't hike at both of the upcoming meetings. We also talk heavy treasury issuance this week, the energy outlook and recent rise in commodities, incoming earnings to watch this week and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole S. Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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A Tesla 0DTE circus today. Huge week ahead for global markets.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Cleu6k   -

Today we look at the market rebound yesterday, though still one with a number of divergences we have recently noted. Tesla had a banner day and was administered a dose of rocket fuel after the close on GM announcing that it would join Tesla's EV super-charging network. Given that today is Friday, this could well drive a bonanza of volatility and heavy trading in Tesla shares on the impact of the weekly options going 0DTE (zero-days-to-expiry) today. In fixed income, we focus on upcoming US treasury issuance and the pricing at the front-end of the European yield curve. FX moves, an emphasis on the heavy calendar of event risks next week (US CPI, Fed, ECB, BoJ & more) and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Strange brew: big megacap sell-off, stark divergences and lower VIX.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3oPzIGj   -

Today, we look an even odder equity market session yesterday in the US than the prior day's session, as it featured another spike higher in value and small cap indices, while the broader market was mixed and megacap names, and particularly AI names, suffered a steep sell-off. This on a day that saw the VIX posting a new post-pandemic cycle low. In commodities, we focus on gold on the defensive after another central bank, this time the Bank of Canada, surprised hawkish. We also check in on natural gas, discuss diverging forward expectations curves for many central banks, note key stocks to watch, including a sudden jolt lower in Amazon, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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A very calm surface hiding important developments?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NisSTc   -

Today, we look at a remarkable US equity market session yesterday, which saw some underperforming sectors and themes performing extremely well while the broader market was very quiet. The sudden "calm" in markets here is reflected in the VIX dropping to its lowest level since before the pandemic breakout. We also look at the massive US treasury issuance set for the balance of this month and whether this will pinch liquidity and sentiment. We remark on 2-year EU yields and whether these are realistic, given further expected ECB hikes. In FX, focus on Bank of Canada today and whether it will prove the second central bank after the RBA to restart its tightening regime. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic