Saxo Market Call

Listening to Lagarde for once. Was Empire Manufacturing whiplash a signal?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UIHxZG   -

Today we discuss the market in a holding pattern, which is actually quite impressive given the further sharp advance in US treasury yields, in part on strong US data, including a whiplash turnaround in the April Empire Manufacturing survey. Is this a sign that the industrial policy initiatives the US has announced over the last few quarters are finally working their way into the numbers? Elsewhere, we note a seminal speech from ECB President Lagarde before a US think tank, in which she riffed on the "fragmenting" world and policy imperatives, including the aims of fiscal policy, CB interdependence and more. We will follow up in coming days on the importance of this speech. Elsewhere, we consider stocks to watch this earnings season, the latest on gold and wheat & more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic  

Special Edition: Generative AI Part 2 with Emil Sarauw

Link to Part 1 of this podcast: 

In this continuation of the conversation from Part 1, we feature special guest Emil Sarauw, head of AI with Droids Agency, who takes us through his thoughts on all things Generative AI, from its applications to its implications. These span from envisioning how AI can provide a tremendous boost to productivity to some of the dangers it brings in terms of our ability as a society to trust information that is presented to us in all forms, from text to images and even video. We also have thoughts on how blockchain might address some of the latter dangers. Emil also peeks into the near and more distant future on the how the AI revolution will impact our professional and even personal lives. Also on the pod are Saxo's Peter Garnry and John J. Hardy.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

 

Treasury yields jump, USD fights back as earnings season hits full stride this week.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43FXvrC   -

Friday saw a solid jump in US treasury yields, one that the incoming data didn't really justify, suggesting that market players have an agenda here. Could that agenda be the sense that there was an overreaction to the immediate implications for Fed policy from the Silicon Valley Bank crisis? The results and outlook from regional US banks this week should help answer that question. We also look at the bump in US yields helping the USD to reverse sharply from recent weakness and offer extensive commodity market coverage, especially on positioning, crude oil and copper. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market in goldilocks mode, with massive earnings week ahead.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KVuJMl   -

Today we look at the market posting a strong session as US data was benign and as the US dollar rolled over to new cycle lows. Hard to read too much into local price action, however, as we await the Q1 earnings season kick-off today with the large US banks reporting and a heavy earnings calendar next week. We also delve into metals and commodity performance generally here, the end of the EuroDollar futures market as SOFR futures take over, the macro calendar for the week ahead and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Inflation is not going away. Earnings season incoming.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UBoG2W   -

Today we look at the choppy reception of the US March CPI figures and evidence that inflation remains a problem, with the risk that energy prices re-aggravate the inflation story in coming months as oil breaks higher. The US dollar is on its knees and breaking lower - a situation that could extend here. We also look at key stocks to watch, including the great news from luxury giant LVMH and preview the coming attractions for this earnings season set to kick off on Friday. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Another 0DTE frenzy in wait on US CPI?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/4001mwQ   -

Today we look at the market continuing to hold its breath, likely in anticipation of today's US March CPI release, where a strong directional surprise could unleash the latest round of zany intraday volatility on 0DTE (zero-day-to-expiry) S&P 500 options. We also discuss the compelling Japanese equity market, crude oil breakout potential, softs and precious metals on fire and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

This market is tough to keep down. US CPI tomorrow to set tone.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UuuM4T   -

Today we look at a market that doesn't want to stay down as signs of incoming economic weakness aren't yet urgent enough to spook confidence, while we're also unlikely to see a significant reheating of inflation concerns. This could mean we have room for an extension of the equity rally, provided earnings season doesn't bring worrying guidance. We also take a look at FX, crude oil and wheat, stocks to watch, the economic calendar for the rest of the week and more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Special Edition: Generative AI Part 1: what it is and how and whether to gain exposure.

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Ub9x81   -

In this special edition of the podcast, Saxo's John J. Hardy and Peter Garnry discuss the Generative AI phenomenon, both defining what it is and offering a few thoughts on its enormous potential impacts as Generative AI applications mature. The discussion also turns to the opportunities and especially the difficulties in finding publicly traded companies that are directly involved with Generative AI as virtually all of the pure-play activity in the space is still in the start-up phase. Plenty of food for thought on this technology, which is likely set to be the third great computing revolution after PC's were introduced in the late 70's and early 80's, then the internet arrived in the late 1990's and early 2000's. 

Note: Sequoia Capital piece referenced extensively in the podcast.