Saxo Market Call

Squeeze on USD and sentiment hitting pivotal areas

Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3Tzac1b   -

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Today we note an indifferent session yesterday yielding to a strong session for sentiment overnight in Asia, perhaps in part from the friendly tone in the wake of the Biden-Xi summit yesterday, but also on stimulus hopes after weak Chinese data overnight. Elsewhere, we note the shift in attitude in the gold market as the USD remains very weak, with the latter trading at pivotal support areas in places. Wheat, crude oil, key semiconductor stocks to watch and upcoming earnings and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Bear markets have the most spectacular squeezes

Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3ttblgo   -

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Today we continue to find reason to question the quality of this melt-up in equity markets after last Thursday's soft US CPI print, with the first prominent Fed official already out overnight with pushback against this drop in US yields. Still, that's not to say that the move can't extend in the short term, as the market is also hoping that a shift in China's Zero Covid policy is coming. Xi and Biden will meet today ahead of the G20 meeting. We also look at stocks to watch this week, an important week for earnings, the big moves in metals both precious and industrial, the US dollar and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

CPI print triggers historic day across markets

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3EksL4R   -

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Yesterday's lower than estimated October US inflation figures (both headline and core) triggered a gigantic move across all markets with Nasdaq 100 futures rallying 7.5%, US 10-year yield dropping 30 basis points, USDJPY plunging 3.8%, and copper futures rallying 4.2% over two trading sessions. Adding to the positive sentiment is China's announcement this morning to ease Covid restrictions which will add to growth and inflation. According to some estimates the moves across markets yesterday led to the biggest single day easing of financial conditions which do not really fit with what the Fed wants to achieve. Investors must remind themselves that this inflation print is just one data point. In today's podcast we cover the inflation report and the reactions across many different markets. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Margin call contagion from crypto

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3DUUvvE   -

Peter's article: Investors should not wish for an average equity market.   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -  

Today we look at the sudden shift of the plot over the last 24 hours as the crypto contagion effects from the meltdown in that space have reached sufficient magnitude to impact sentiment across markets. We emphasize caution on the network effects among many clusters of assets held by the same hands holding crypto. Also, a look at where we are with the equity risk premium as investors better not hope for "normal" equity valuations. A glance at FX and the USD rising on liquidity concerns and brushing off the drop in US treasury yields, which brings into question the reaction function around today's October US CPI release, which may not have the impact previously anticipated, even on a surprise. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Gold rips on crashing crypto. USD on edge ahead of CPI.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3EhIzW5   -

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Today we look at the US mid-term election results as they roll in, where the House looks set to flip Republican and the Senate may go down to a December 6th run-off in Georgia (as in 2020 and providing fodder for election denier conspiracy theories, etc...) but either way cementing the lame duck second half of Biden's presidency. Elsewhere, we look at the massive gold rally yesterday, in part on huge liquidity pressures in the crypto space that have prices tumbling there. Also, Tesla, Disney, stocks to watch, the USD on edge ahead of critical CPI release tomorrow and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Are bonds and equities set to part ways?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3FT6wEp   -

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Today we look at markets as we await US elections today and the US CPI data print on Thursday, all while everyone has very twitchy trading fingers on hopes that China is set to ease up on its Covid restrictions. We also discuss the simultaneous decline in bond market and equity market volatility and ask which asset class might be more attractive. Equity sentiment has improved sharply and is near six-month highs. In commodities, we zero in on nat-gas, gold, cocoa and coffee. Stocks to watch, including Tesla, upcoming earnings from Disney and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market still poking around for peak Fed

Slides: https://bit.ly/3UsGyfz   -

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Today we step back and look at last week's price action and especially after the FOMC rate decision. China is in focus over supposedly easing its Covid restrictions lifting copper and other industrial metals including emerging market equities. The USD also seems to be rolling over in the short-term easing financial conditions a bit and lifting risk sentiment. On the macro side, we discuss US consumer credit growth and what it means for the cycle and we highlighting the plunge in European economic activity over the past three months. On equities, we discuss rumoured Meta layoffs and Apple cutting its iPhone production target. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US October jobs report next test for FOMC reaction

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3WywenF   -

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Today we look at whether the US October jobs (and earnings!) report later today will extend or disrupt the powerful market reaction to Fed Chair Powell's hawkish FOMC press conference on Wednesday. We also look at the impact of a very dovish Bank of England meeting and the market thumbing its nose at the BoE's rate guidance next year. We also look at crude oil, gold, copper & cotton, stocks to watch including a huge positive beat from SocGen this morning. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic