Saxo Market Call

Market jolted by JOLTS - an overreaction or sign of fear?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Mi1Smo   -

Yesterday saw a change of tone in the US on the far weaker than expected JOLTS survey of job openings, with the market reaction seemingly far more sharp than a single data point might justify, particularly in US treasuries. This sets up even more focus on incoming US labor market data in coming days. A letter from JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon bemoaning sustained risks for banks also spooked the market and banking stocks. We also discuss the massive wave of electrification to come and some of the equities that are involved in that process, discuss FX stories like the surprising large RBNZ hike overnight and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market shrugs off oil spike, celebrates lower yields

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Ubf7r1   -

Today we struggle a bit with the market backdrop, as equities pulled back higher to post new local highs in places despite the huge surge in crude oil prices after the weekend OPEC cut announcement, perhaps as treasury yields wilted on the back of a weak ISM Manufacturing survey out of the US. More important incoming data lies ahead. We check in on FX after the RBA hold on further tightening overnight, discuss the crude oil market after the huge weekend gap, talk gold and wheat, and look at stocks to watch, including miner Teck Resources and biotech name Illumina. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

OPEC spoils the megacap party

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3nx9FCy   -

Today we look at the strong close for US equities on Friday as they surged into month-, quarter-, and Japanese financial year-end, especially driven by a megacap surge and hype in names linked to the generative artificial intelligence phenomenon. The party was partly spoiled at the weekend on OPEC announcing a surprise cut in production, which triggered a several dollar jolt higher in crude oil prices. Elsewhere, we look at the week ahead on the macro calendar, with the RBA set to meet Tuesday, and look at Tesla's delivery numbers for Q1, grains and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

If market is right on Fed, the economy has to nosedive, and fast.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3nCn9gi   -

Today we look at the narrow slice of companies, especially the market cap heavyweights that are taking the big US indices higher, while we note that all does not look well beneath the surface. We also break down the somewhat incoherent market view on the Fed vs. equities, as Fed rate cuts later this year would seem to require a rapid deterioration of the economic outlook. A look at Tesla and CATL looking to build batteries in the US, Netflix news, the busy economic calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Equities marching higher on AI and mega caps focus

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3zkMuOK   -

In today's podcast we talk about the improved momentum in equities driven by technology stocks and especially with yesterday's best performing theme being semiconductors driven by AI focus, strong EV demand, and improving demand for memory chips in data centers. We also talk Sweden as a showcase of the impact from tighter credit conditions and the new financial year in Japan. On commodities we cover oil with a focus on recent changes to the Brent crude contract and the slowing production in the US due to cost pressures, lastly on commodities we highlight recent developments in the grain markets. Finally, we cover better than expected earnings from H&M and talk about US non-financial corporate profit margins reached the highest levels in 2022 since the end of WWII. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Equities extend momentum led by energy

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3zdrdX2   -

Risk sentiment is on the rise with the second straight session yesterday in equities with procyclical industry groups such as energy, transportation, banks, and mining rallying. Today's sentiment is extended with news that Alibaba is splitting into six separate business rallying 13% on the news. We also got a strong outlook from Lululemon yesterday and better than expected US March consumer confidence highlighting a strong US economy despite the obvious cracks at banks and real estate. In today's podcast we also cover the positive momentum in oil markets and gold that continues to benefit from the recent nervousness over banks. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities..

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Bank stocks bounce, broader market uninspired by relief

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3TMxqmn   -

Today we note that, while bank stocks bounced strongly in the US yesterday and yields mean reverted back higher, the broader market was uninspired by these developments and tech stocks sold off after failing once again to take out the key cycle resistance. We continue to fret the next shoes to drop and bemoan the lack of good indicators to get a sense of where the worst pressures in the system lie (likely in the darker corners of shadow banking and private equity). A look at rebounding commodities, especially oil and copper, stocks to watch, the macro calendar ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Markets try to stabilize, but looking for next shoe to drop.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JQz81z   -

Today we look at the market trying to breathe a sigh of relief, but with concerns lingering, not only on the risk of another round of bank turmoil as the weakest links may be in commercial real estate and real estate exposures, but also on the likelihood that this latest crisis has brought the recession forward via an incoming credit crunch. We delve into earnings for the week ahead, commodities positioning and precious metals, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic