Saxo Market Call

Central bank pivot narrative may struggle for sustenance

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3STkEkg   -

Saxo Q4 2022 Quarterly Outlook: Winter is Coming

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Today we look at the short squeeze in equity markets finding surprising further strength yesterday and note that key resistance in US markets has already come into view as the "central bank pivot" narrative may struggle to find further sustenance when most of what we have seen may have just been a temporary improvement after a scary episode driven by UK gilt market contagion that eased. We also look at the status of FX markets, the crude oil reversal on the threats of an actual large production cut from OPEC+ today, Tesla and Twitter after Musk u-turned on his intent to challenge the deal, Tesco and semiconductor stocks and much more.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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The desperation for the Fed pivot

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3e7axcT   -

Saxo Q4 2022 Quarterly Outlook: Winter is Coming

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Today we look at the market celebrating a weak September US ISM Manufacturing data point taking long US treasury yields lower, with noise from the commentariat suggesting a Fed pivot may be near possibly adding energy to the squeeze on equity market bears yesterday. At the same time we note further hawkish noise from key Fed officials, include Vice Chair Williams. Elsewhere, we look at financial conditions, unusual behaviour in sectors that normally would have performed better yesterday, possibly on Tesla's very bad day. Crude oil, a huge surge in silver, gold pushing on resistance and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Things are breaking

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3y6i8yX   -

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Today we discuss the market sliding to new lows on Friday after a firm US PCE inflation indicator and despite the stabilization of global sovereign bond markets in the wake of the panicky situation in the UK gilt market last week that triggered an easing move from the Bank of England. We look at new sources of concern as financial conditions by some continue to deteriorate badly. A look at the USD, crude oil, natural gas and wheat, Tesla, Biogen's new Alzheimer drug candidate and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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A very uneasy feeling ahead of the weekend

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UOp3ql   -

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Today we look at the market stumbling once again just a day after recovering on the stabilization of global bond markets, in part on rising geopolitical unease linked to Russia, most easily spotted in CEE currencies. Sentiment also dipped on the world's largest company, Apple, seeing its shares trashed in yesterday's session on concerns for the company's growth. A startling outlook from Micron and other weak earnings results also weighed. Elsewhere, we note the interesting weakness in the US dollar as global yields were a pocket of relative calm as risk sentiment deteriorated, a shift from recent behavior. Crude oil, natural gas, metals, thoughts on whether the USD is turning here and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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Is the Bank of England the canary in the coal mine?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ftTwtN   -

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Today we discuss the Bank of England's announcement of emergency QE yesterday, and how the impact of that on not just UK, but also, global yields impacted risk sentiment yesterday. Arguably, the UK is merely the weakest link and the BoE's actions might have to be repeated elsewhere - but on what time frame? We also look at the impact on gold, the latest on crude oil and the natural gas supply situation for Europe this winter even without any Russian gas deliveries, and much more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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Are equities and treasuries set for correlation jump?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Rp7o5z   -

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Today, a look at the US 10-year Treasury benchmark reaching the 4.0% milestone for the first time for this cycle after a remarkable surge in yields in recent weeks. It's worth considering the 1987 experience of bond markets flip-flopping in their correlation with equities and whether we could be set for a similar flip-flop if risk sentiment worsens further. Also, note that many speculative corners of the market were bid yesterday even as the action soured late and worsened still overnight as the US dollar continued surging - especially against the Chinese yuan overnight. Much more on today's pod, which is a solo flight with John J. Hardy hosting.

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Markets at pivot point

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xSnZYU   -

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Today we look at the equity market's precise test of the cycle lows yesterday and brightening sentiment overnight, despite the fresh surge in US treasury yields and the US dollar yesterday. An increasingly inverted VIX forward curve suggests that the market low may be close in time, if possibly not in price. We also look at signals from the US Consumer Confidence as the September reading is due today, break down broader commodity performance since commodities peaked, update the crude oil outlook after the recent price plunge, highlight upcoming event risks on the economic calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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What shape capitulation for equities? Sterling bites the dust.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CbVNT2   -

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Today we look at very weak global sentiment as the US dollar and US treasury yields continue to soar, taking US equities to the key cycle lows as we wonder what shape the capitulation will take - a quick test and reverse or a more profound move driven by poor liquidity? Elsewhere, we note sterling's historic drop and suggest that it is time for the Bank of England to step in with an emergency rate hike - or else. Crude oil, gold, stocks to watch today (including Apple with some concern around iPhone 14 orders) and more are on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic