Saxo Market Call

The FOMC pulls off a hawkish pivot

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3fwDoYQ   -

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Today we look at the hawkish Fed Chair Powell press conference delivering a hammer-blow to sentiment as he managed to both pull off the idea that the Fed may indeed soon pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes as soon as December, but that any talk of a pause is "very premature". The result? Sentiment thrashed and the USD going vertical as the market takes Fed rate expectations and the terminal rate next year higher still. Incoming US data could further aggravate this move if the data remains even resilient, much less hotter than expected. We also talk through the reaction to the FOMC in gold, risks to sterling today if BoE fails to take the hawkish hint from Powell, stocks to watch, perspective on where we are with equity valuations and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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Powell in the hot seat today, will he prove sufficiently hawkish?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3Nv3Xu8   -

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Today we discuss the shockingly strong September US JOLTS job openings survey out yesterday that took down risk sentiment as US yields and the US dollar jumped. It's the latest data point to suggest that the Fed needs to hawkishly keep all options on the table to buy at least a bit of time and two monthly data cycles until the December 14 FOMC meeting, where it can better make a decision on whether to downshift the size of further hikes and provide its next set of projections and policy forecasts. A focus on incoming data is likely, but how will the market react? Elsewhere, we look at key stocks to watch as earnings season rolls on, industrial and precious metals and crude oil, key FX stories and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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Does Fed have any choice but to push back against the rally?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3zwNPT2   -

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Today we look at another jump in sentiment overnight as the RBA maintains its slow pace of tightening, increasing the drumbeat of expectations that central banks are set to ease off the policy tightening gas. But with risk sentiment having roared off the lows and financial conditions rapidly easing in the US, will the Fed have any choice but to stay on message and push back against this market rally? Elsewhere, we look at oil and natural gas, uninspired gold, stocks to watch as earnings this quarter are underperforming expectations, the increasingly busy macro calendar ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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Fed faces devilishly difficult guidance task on Wednesday

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3Nmo9hp   -

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Today, we scratch our heads a bit at Friday's wildly strong equity session, as the narrative supporting recent equity market strength - the anticipation of a dovish downshift in Fed policy guidance - was rapidly unwinding on the same day. An article at the weekend from "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal suggests that the Fed is concerned the market is expecting too much of a policy climb-down this Wednesday. We also discuss wheat jumping on Russia moving against the Ukrainian grain deal, industrial metals struggling on weak China data and a weak Chinese currency, the busy earnings and macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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Dovish ECB guidance deepens central bank pivot narrative

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3DibbNi   -

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Today we look at the novel development of a negative correlation in equities and bonds in recent days as rallying bonds are failing to support equity prices. Amazon was the latest to drop a bomb on sentiment yesterday with a very weak outlook after hours, even as a handful of other large companies reported solid earnings yesterday. Elsewhere, the ECB was the latest central bank to surprise on the dovish side with surprisingly cautious guidance. And USDJPY is up sharply again overnight despite lower US yields as the BoJ held the line and the Japanese government announced a new stimulus package. Elsewhere, we look at the latest on natural gas, coffee & cotton, upcoming earnings, the macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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Meta does a lead zeppelin act

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3FmBaFV   -

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Today we look at another disappointing session for equities yesterday as a fresh dip in yields on the central bank pivot narrative, encouraged in part by a smaller than expected rate hike from the Bank of Canada, failed to sustain the market rally. Sentiment was further dashed after the close on a hideous result from Meta. Nonetheless it has been a stellar week for equities, despite marquee names reporting weak results, with heavy hitters Apple and Amazon reporting earnings today after the close. We also talk the dire outlook for diesel supply, a copper surge, USD suffering on the central bank pivot narrative and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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US mid-terms coming into view. Bring out the conspiracy theorists.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3FibxGk   -

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Today we look at a whiplash-inducing session for equities traders as a strong session yesterday on falling treasury yields and a weaker US dollar was marred in the aftermarket session by very weak earnings from Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet. We break down those earnings reports, the next key companies to report, the status of the US dollar, crude oil and gold, and importantly: the narrative around the Biden administration, with a cooperative Fed, trying to engineer strong support for the equity market into the mid-term elections the week after next. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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US megacap earnings on deck

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3gEwm4e   -

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Today we round out our view on the growing Chinese equity market discount as the market takes a dim view of prospects for returns there, given the policy focus on "common prosperity", not to mention geopolitical concerns. The weakening yuan is also a key focus in Asia. Elsewhere, today we have the earnings season getting into full swing today with Microsoft, Alphabet and many others reporting. Crude oil platinum, FX and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic