Saxo Market Call

The unbearable tightness of bank funding

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3TD3fhj   -

Today we look at the multi-speed market, as tech stocks tried to pump on vague new language from US Treasury Secretary Yellen aimed at softening prior comments on the official posture to banking system turmoil. Alas, US bank stocks were in for a further drubbing yesterday and we also discuss the negative focus on European banks is pummeling sentiment into early trading in Europe as well. Also on the call: the knock-on effects of all of this into FX, earnings watch next week, the China re-opening story fighting for attention and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Yellen statement on deposits spooks market, while Powell thoroughly ignored.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/40eSCUn   -

Today we look at the market's negative reaction to Yellen clearly stating that she has never discussed "anything having to do with blanket insurance or guarantees of deposits" at the same time Powell was holding the FOMC press conference. While the Fed kept its dot plot policy forecasts unchanged, the market ignored this as the Fed is clearly pivoting with this latest statement, which introduced new language on recent developments impacting credit conditions and the economy. We assess the impact of Yellen's statements across markets, including gold and FX, consider the situation for European banks, especially on real estate pressures, note stocks to watch, preview the Bank of England today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Catch 22 for the FOMC: market leans for a hike, but...

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3TDgNtk   -

Today we discuss the uncertainty around the Fed's interest rate decision and guidance at today's FOMC meeting, where the Powell Fed faces the unenviable task of weighing financial stability risks against ongoing inflation risks, with the market leaning more strongly for a hike now but watching whether the Fed is willing to cave on its "higher for longer" forward guidance. And in the event the Fed does pause, will the market celebrate this or be spooked that the Fed sees things as worse than feared? We also look at where unease is greatest among global banks, note hot UK CPI numbers in this morning, crude oil, grains positioning surprises and gold. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Are markets too calm? Will FOMC play ball with market expectations?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3yVYfei   -

Today we look at the eerie calm across markets after the two consecutive weekend interventions to deal with systemic risks from failing banks. We also discuss whether the FOMC will be willing to market its forecasts anywhere near where market expectations have shifted in its forward guidance at tomorrow's meeting, look at copper, natural gas and platinum, stocks to watch, including Amazon, where we wonder if activist investors could soon make an appearance and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Weekend Credit Suisse deal unsettles markets on debt wipeout.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3n7RIdy   -

Today we look at the weekend's shotgun wedding arranged by the SNB that sees UBS taking over Credit Suisse with a number of liquidity guarantees and a massive eyebrow-raising wipeout of Credit Suisse's Tier1 debt. That last move has markets unsettled on the implications as it breaks the assumed rules of engagement for bankruptcies, putting bank debt and bank shares under heavy pressure this morning.  We also look at what the Fed may do on Wednesday after the crazy repricing of the yield curve, the week ahead for equity earnings and macro event risks and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market sees a glass that is half full of liquidity for now.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42mi0sE   -

Today we note the strong comeback in sentiment yesterday after an initial dip on the ECB moving ahead with a 50 basis point hike that surprised many and was initially read as a possible policy mistake. An injection of cash into troubled lender First Republic Bank in the US by peers in the banking industry was also behind some of the brightening in sentiment yesterday. We talk through the difficulty in interpreting market signals here when the first move in a shock is simply to reverse prior trends, something that doesn't always add information value. We also look at positive versus negative interpretations of the backdrop, action in key commodities and the earnings and macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Credit Suisse gets lifeline. ECB faces unenviable task today.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3FuIoXD   -

Today we continue to highlight the tremendous volatility in asset markets, particularly bonds, on the bank-centered turmoil and wonder whether the extension of a lifeline by the Swiss National Bank to Credit Suisse will provide any calm beyond the immediate relief that the latest weakest link isn't set to break. We also look at the ECB's impossible task at its meeting today as it juggles concerns with financial stability and its formerly most-hawkish guidance, we note the turmoil slipping into the commodity markets and much more. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Nervous calm doesn’t feel very stable here

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3lddufp   -

Today we look at the market's attempt to piece together some calm after the sudden trauma and lightning official response/bailout of depositors after the SVB bankruptcy. We highlight the need for more time to assess the fallout, continuing to note the longer term risks to credit transmission if recent events have served as a wake-up call for depositors, who have yet to demand higher returns on their savings. A look at earnings and macro data on watch through next week's FOMC meeting as well. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic