Saxo Market Call

Hang Seng delivers a vote of no confidence in Xi’s 3rd term

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3TNyogN   -

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Today we look at the zany session that developed on Friday across not just USDJPY but all markets in the wake of apparent heavy official intervention from Japan, although sources there are playing coy with their communication on the issue. We also discuss a vicious further slide in the Hang Seng index as investors vote no confidence in the signals emanating from the CCP party congress ahead of Xi's third term. A look at natural gas, copper, earnings season hitting fever pitch this week, the macro calendar for the week ahead and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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US yields applying maximum pressure - where’s the angst?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3StkgIM   -

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Today we note the remarkable continued rise in US treasury yields as the 10-year Treasury benchmark reached 4.25%, and the perhaps equally remarkable lack of significant impact on risk sentiment and the US dollar (outside the rush higher in USDJPY, of curse) from this latest surge in yields. We also look at the latest on natural gas, plummeting cotton prices and gold, FX themes, the busy calendar ahead for equity earnings and macro data and central bank meetings next week and more on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Spring loaded volatility pent up by 150 in USDJPY

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ToCHj6   -

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Today we look at rising US treasury yields continuing to drive brutal headwinds for risk assets, even if the price action in equity markets was fairly sedate. Meanwhile, the currency situation is extremely spring-loaded around the 150.00 level in USDJPY, which traders are eyeing with concern on the risk of enormous volatility should we trade above that level - which US yields adding energy to upside pressure in the background. Today features Technical Strategist and chartist Kim Cramer Larsson, who takes us through the technical situation in US equities, the US 10-year treasury yield, USDJPY and more. John J. Hardy hosts.

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Keeping it simple: US long Treasury yields hitting new highs

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3g8tlJg   -

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Today we look at another choppy US equity market session, with a fresh rally attempt in late trading on far better than expected Netflix results and guidance. That rally is unlikely to persist as long as US treasury yields continue to set new highs for the cycle, as they did briefly this morning. The very weak JPY and fresh CNH weakness are key topics in FX as we also look at the key earnings coming up on our radar, especially Tesla. This and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Far more noise than signal here

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3yJOhg3   -

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Today we look at another zany session on Wall Street yesterday, where we suspect that heavy derivatives related exposures are creating a lot of noise and little signal. Meanwhile, we are curious to see if we can pick up the signal from incoming company earnings,  as we highlight the next important companies to report this week as earnings season hits full stride. Interesting FX stories, including the latest thoughts on sterling, and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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Deglobalization and its discontents

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3yL3xcQ   -

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Today we look at Friday's whipsaw turnaround in equities after the bizarre Thursday rally, as the heart of earnings season lies dead ahead and the world's most traded stock, Tesla, has dumped to a new low for the year just ahead of its Wednesday earnings call. We also discuss Chinese leader Xi's speech over the weekend and whether Europe is set to declare China an economic rival, as well as watching for the ongoing fallout for semiconductor companies after the Biden administration moved to limit semiconductor tech transfer to China. The latest in FX, individual stocks to watch and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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Bear market rally! Wow, but meh...

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3TixZTm   -

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Today we discuss the remarkable turnaround in equities yesterday after a hotter than expected core US CPI print for September pumped Fed rate expectations higher and triggered a sharp new slide in the market. The rally came after both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 tested important support levels. As the headline suggests, we're far from sure that the market comeback offers much information value despite its impressive scale. Elsewhere, we look at the mixed status of USD pairs after yesterday's action, look at natural gas and copper, preview the day and week ahead on the earnings calendar and upcoming macro data points and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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Europe’s predicament is generational, not just about this winter

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3COtgCv   -

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As we await today's US September CPI and wonder whether a soft surprise can really move the needle, we highlight one of the starkest assessments of Europe's current predicament, which has crystallized since Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this year and is not just about stocking up on enough gas to survive the coming winter, but will require decades to address. A look at burgeoning interest in the nuclear energy, stocks to watch and upcoming earnings reports, crude oil, wheat and a 79-year low in the orange crop in the US and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic