Saxo Market Call

Careening toward a credit crunch?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/404Z6Vj   -

Still very early days, as we ponder the ongoing fallout from the turmoil in the US banking system, which has triggered a massive collapse in yields as the market brings forward the end of the Fed's tightening cycle. One significant danger is that we risk a credit crunch as banks are forced to scramble for funding and deposits. We highlight areas and indicators that are flashing red, the impact of the situation into currencies, precious metals, and equity sectors. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

SVB fallout: Nobody knows what will happen next

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ZFKGew   -

We follow up on Friday's big event with SVB Financial failing as a financial institution which set in motion a US government backstop of uninsured deposits over the weekend which extended to Signature Bank which was also taken over by the US government yesterday. We focus on the market reaction across equities, US bonds, interbank spreads, and gold with our main message being that nobody knows what will happen next. It is all one big guessing this week on fallout from the failure of SVB Financial. Today's pod features Peter Garnry and Ole S. Hansen.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A warning shot has been fired

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Li0Ne9   -

Markets got big jolt yesterday when Silvergate Capital announced a liquidation of the bank that has suffered from the implosion in cryptocurrencies. The event cascaded into SVB Financial (Silicon Valley Bank) plunging 60% in the main session and another 20% in extended trading as the bank has been forced to sell bonds at great losses. These moves cascaded further into other banking stocks and led equity futures lower in Asian and European trading. JD.com also announced a weaker than expected Q1 revenue outlook saying the Chinese consumer is weaker than estimated and that the extended lockdown has impacted behaviour. In today's podcast we go through the implications of the SVB Financial fallout and what it means for markets moves and especially with the large trading volumes in zero-day-to-expiry (0DTE) options. We also cover the JPY following the BoJ meeting and the moves in CHF on banking risk-off. Finally, we cover Fed Funds pricing, gold and other commodities, and next week's earnings releases which will focus on Volkswagen, BMW, Adobe, and Lennar. A warning shot has been fired yesterday. Be vigilant on risks today and stay safe. Today's pod features Steen Jakobsen, Peter Garnry, and Ole S. Hansen.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Bank of Japan could cast a very long shadow over global markets

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3FaQOmL   -

Today we look at a market that is holding its breath in anticipation of incoming US data to refresh the probabilities that the Fed feels forced to re-accelerate the pace of rate hikes at the March 22. But as well, all traders need to consider the Bank of Japan meeting risk up overnight tonight as a surprisingly large adjustment from Kuroda could set even global bond and equity markets on edge, not just the Japanese yen. We also look at interesting stories in equities, from the latest on ASML to CATL and other companies. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Fed Chair Powell hawkish blast unsettles markets again.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kVUQZw   -

Today we look at the market swooning as it is forced to price the Fed terminal rate higher still after Fed Chair Powell pointed to higher rates than previously expected and even expressed a willingness to re-accelerate the pace of hikes if the "totality" of data points toward higher inflation risks again. We also look at the reaction to Powell's rhetoric in the US yield curve and across commodities and FX. Thoughts on earnings from cybersecurity firms Darktrace and Crowdstrike and from Adidas and much more also on today's pod, which features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Triangulating ahead of the event risk blitz. RBA policy mistake?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L16cpC   -

Today we look at the choppy equity market failing to extend the upside momentum for now as we triangulate mid-range ahead of a series of event risks, among these two days of Fed Chair Powell testimony starting today. Overnight, Australia's RBA announced a dovish hike, clearly looking for excuses to pause its tightening regime - is this a policy mistake in the making? We also look at evidence on what may have driven China's about-face on stimulating its economy, crude oil, natgas and wheat & other grain markets and much more. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Bulls celebrate yield dip. Heavy central bank calendar this week.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Zp2Y3s   -

Today we look at the strong comeback in equity markets Friday as yields dipped sharply, providing some relief after the recent strong ramp higher. Still, it is interesting to note that inflation expectations may be undergoing a sea change as well, which has come to the aid of gold. Elsewhere, we gauge the market reaction to China's policy signals, note the busy week ahead on the central bank front, with the RBA up tonight, Fed Chair Powell out speaking in testimony before Congressional panels tomorrow and Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Friday, which will be Governor Kuroda's final meeting. This and much more on today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Neither bulls nor bears have conviction here. Week ahead a big one for macro.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3SJstKl   -

Today we discuss the lack of conviction in the market after the action spilled lower below the 200-day moving average but failed to follow through and backed up to close the session higher, despite fresh pressure from rising yields, as the 10-year treasury benchmark took out the 4.00% level. In equities, a breakdown of what European equities have to offer relative to US equities. In commodities, focus on gold and natural gas. A look at the week ahead calendar for both earnings and especially macro as well. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic