Saxo Market Call

Strong bets on weaker inflation seen across markets

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DsNX8C   -

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Today we discuss the extension of momentum in equities as the market is clearly positioning itself for a weaker than expected US August inflation figure later today. The risk-on sentiment is seen across many markets including the USD which continues to weaken against the EUR which might have got some tailwinds lately from the war success in Ukraine. We also talk about Silver, but more importantly the ongoing European energy crisis that has eased a bit lately with lower energy prices across the board. Finally, we go through stocks to watch with a focus on Ocado's horrible revenue miss and Inditex's earnings tomorrow, ending with a quick rundown of today's macro calendar. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Guarded optimism on Ukrainian battlefield success

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3B5MOBj   -

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Today we discuss market risk sentiment brightening in Europe in the wake of Ukrainian momentum on the battlefield since late last week, with EURUSD breaking well above important local resistance. The JPY is nearly as weak as the US dollar as yields have poked higher again. We also discuss developments in crude oil, wheat and rice after an Indian export ban, stocks to watch this week, including Oracle on the earnings report today and key semiconductor stocks as the US is likely to widen its curb on exports to China. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

USD stumble adds to sentiment boost

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Bu8ZCo   -

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Today we look at a sharp sell-off in the US dollar inspired in the wake of the ECB meeting yesterday and especially after Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda comments on JPY volatility overnight. The USD decline has helped to boost sentiment further as the US S&P 500 retakes 4,000, but equity traders should keep a wary eye on treasury yields, which bounced back sharply yesterday on a strong US jobless claims number and the latest firm rhetoric from Chair Powell. The week ahead in earnings and macro and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Room for rally or was yesterday a red herring?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3euh4hy   -

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Today we ponder whether yesterday's bounce in sentiment after technical support once again survived offers room for at least tactical optimism. Certainly, investor sentiment in the US is in the dumps, nearly matching record low levels according to at least one survey. Elsewhere, we breakdown the impact of EU proposals to cap power prices, particularly on alternative energy equities, the latest on crude oil and Putin boosting wheat prices with threats to revisit Ukraine export deal. In FX, the focus is on the JPY as the officialdom is getting religion on the need to do something soon and on the EUR as the ECB is likely set to hike 75 basis points today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Bank of Japan fiddling as yen burns

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3D0hGFN   -

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Today we look at markets trying to remain steady yesterday after a strong US August ISM Services survey took US treasury yields sharply higher again, but that rise in yields aggravated the decline in the Japanese yen, which accelerated lower overnight and hardly registered stern warnings from Japan's Ministry of Finance. We also discuss factors driving gold below $1700/ounce again and the commodities complex weighed down in general by the strong US dollar and economic outlook. Equity market focus on sluggish volatility relative to prior cycles and the ongoing US-China disengagement. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market is charging full tilt at BoJ

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3x1d26R  -

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Today we look at fresh 24-year highs in USDJPY and across the board weakness in the Japanese yen as yields bob back higher and the market appears ready to challenge the Bank of Japan's belief that it can remain unmovable on policy. Tremendous volatility awaits if US long yields rise to new cycle highs. Elsewhere, we ponder risk to corporate margins from here, break down the latest on European natural gas and global crude oil prices in the wake of the OPEC+ output quota cut yesterday and much more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

EU’s nat-gas woes topple sentiment once again.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3q9Eyes   -

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Today we look at the whiplash reversal in sentiment on Friday after the market was rallying in the wake of the US jobs report, only to see sentiment sent into a tailspin on news that Russia will not resume gas flows through the Nord Stream I pipeline. We also look at sentiment position in US futures markets on commodities and FX and discuss the week ahead in macro events, with the RBA decision and guidance up tonight after a soft inflation data point out of Australia overnight. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.'

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

More resilient US data ahead of August jobs report

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KFFosG   -

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Today we discuss the US market finding support at a very technical level yesterday ahead of today's US August jobs report. US Treasury yields continue to ratchet higher, particularly at the longer end of the yield curve, suggesting that resilient data is beginning to register on yields. We also discuss the US government blocking NVidia from exporting some chips, why gasoline prices are plunging while diesel prices remain resilient, the latest on Natural Gas, today's US August jobs report and where to look for surprises there. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic