Saxo Market Call

All eyes on BoE and the UK Gilt market

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3yyo7gp   -

Saxo Q4 2022 Quarterly Outlook: Winter is Coming   -

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Today we talk about the continuing weakness in equities with the latest jolt coming from BoE Governor Bailey's comments that UK pension firms must get their house in order by Friday as the central bank is planning to step away from the market. We also cover today's oil market and the expected forecasts from IEA and EIA, the grains markets and finally gold that attempting to bounce back from its recent decline. We also cover stocks to watch which today are Intel, Chr Hanse, and LVMH. Finally, we cover today's earnings release from PepsiCo and the economic calendar with a focus on US PPI figures and FOMC Minutes later tonight. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Back at the brink - do we go over?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Tf5kOT   -

Saxo Q4 2022 Quarterly Outlook: Winter is Coming   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  -

Today we look at equity markets back at the cycle lows just ahead of earnings season as treasury yields and a strong US dollar continue to pressure. We also discuss unrealistic earnings expectations for the coming batch of earnings reports, the large banks' massive unrealized losses on bond portfolios that will hamper buyback programs and dividend generosity, the ongoing dicey situation for UK gilts and sterling as sentiment and policymaker credibility continue to struggle, crude oil & gas, FX focus, TSMC's ugly day and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The unbearable tightness getting us closer to peak yields

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ysVrWb   -

Saxo Q4 2022 Quarterly Outlook: Winter is Coming   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  -

Today we look at an ugly close to last week for equity markets after the market read a mostly uneventful September jobs report as negative for risk sentiment because the unemployment rate dropped back to the cycle low of 3.5%, driving treasury yields back toward the cycle highs and sending the US dollar higher again. Sentiment failed to improve in Asia as the week gets under way, with higher oil prices weighing and amplified by the stronger US dollar, while geopolitical jitters are more uncomfortable than ever. Precious metals, wheat, pondering peak tightness, the important event risks on the economic calendar and more are also on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Hard for today’s US jobs data to move the needle

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3T84HHb   -

Saxo Q4 2022 Quarterly Outlook: Winter is Coming   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  -

Today we note a fresh weakening in sentiment as US treasury yields rose and the US dollar roared back higher, particularly against the smaller currencies. Also, a look at today's US jobs report and whether it can move the needle much, given the drumbeat of Fed rhetoric staying on the unified tightening-and-not-pivoting message, which will likely require many months of weakening inflation and a weakening jobs market to drive a shift. That means the surprise side is a very strong jobs and earnings report today. Discussion of AMD's shock revenue miss for Q3 reported after hours yesterday, the week ahead in earnings as earnings season get under way, the macro calendar points of note next week and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market action shreds the recent pivot narrative

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3yk6Bwk   -

Saxo Q4 2022 Quarterly Outlook: Winter is Coming   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  -

Today we note that the action in yesterday's session seemed to largely shred the central bank pivot narrative, not only because of a robust US ISM Services survey for September, but also as the reaction function across markets, with still resilient equities as yields rose sharply again didn't fit the narrative. We also look at whether bonds are offering solid value here, particularly at the shorter end of the yield curve, discuss Shell's profit warnings yesterday as an interesting harbinger and look at important variables to watch if the Fed is ever to begin pivoting (plot spoiler: not soon). Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Central bank pivot narrative may struggle for sustenance

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3STkEkg   -

Saxo Q4 2022 Quarterly Outlook: Winter is Coming

Click here to open an account with Saxo  -

Today we look at the short squeeze in equity markets finding surprising further strength yesterday and note that key resistance in US markets has already come into view as the "central bank pivot" narrative may struggle to find further sustenance when most of what we have seen may have just been a temporary improvement after a scary episode driven by UK gilt market contagion that eased. We also look at the status of FX markets, the crude oil reversal on the threats of an actual large production cut from OPEC+ today, Tesla and Twitter after Musk u-turned on his intent to challenge the deal, Tesco and semiconductor stocks and much more.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The desperation for the Fed pivot

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3e7axcT   -

Saxo Q4 2022 Quarterly Outlook: Winter is Coming

Click here to open an account with Saxo  -

Today we look at the market celebrating a weak September US ISM Manufacturing data point taking long US treasury yields lower, with noise from the commentariat suggesting a Fed pivot may be near possibly adding energy to the squeeze on equity market bears yesterday. At the same time we note further hawkish noise from key Fed officials, include Vice Chair Williams. Elsewhere, we look at financial conditions, unusual behaviour in sectors that normally would have performed better yesterday, possibly on Tesla's very bad day. Crude oil, a huge surge in silver, gold pushing on resistance and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Things are breaking

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3y6i8yX   -

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Today we discuss the market sliding to new lows on Friday after a firm US PCE inflation indicator and despite the stabilization of global sovereign bond markets in the wake of the panicky situation in the UK gilt market last week that triggered an easing move from the Bank of England. We look at new sources of concern as financial conditions by some continue to deteriorate badly. A look at the USD, crude oil, natural gas and wheat, Tesla, Biogen's new Alzheimer drug candidate and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic