Saxo Market Call

Tesla nothingburger and 4.0% 10-yr yield sets market on tilt

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/41Bzt00   -

Today we look at the market closing on a weak note on a fresh rise in Treasury yields and then spilling lower in later trading after Tesla's investor event was a damp squib. Elsewhere, inflation remains very much on the brain in Europe, with today's Eurozone-wide inflation print for February rounding out the set of February CPI reports across the bloc. In FX, sterling feels the heat on dithering BoE governor Bailey. In commodities, the latest on copper and crude oil and in equities, thoughts on where we are in the current historic drawdown. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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The China reopening narrative tries to get back on the rails.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3EOkrdE   -

Today we look at the stunning official February Manufacturing PMI numbers out China overnight, which suggested the most rapid pace of expansion in China's manufacturing sector in over a decade. We look at how this development propagated through commodities and currencies, as well as the impact on EU rates after hot CPI numbers from France and Spain yesterday. Thoughts on inflation and real growth, stocks and earnings to watch, weakening US Consumer Confidence expectations and what that signals and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Can yields also be the cart and not the horse?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3m6SAyJ   -

Today we look at yields remaining near cycle highs, with US equities struggling into the close after an odd, intraday rally stumbled. Note that end of month is rolling into view today after a terrible month for bonds, with the US 2-year yield up 60 basis points month-to-date into today. On that note, we delve into whether yields really have any bearing on company investment. Elsewhere, pondering what inspires crude to pull itself out of the range, forward curves in the commodity space, the struggling JPY, Tesla's incoming Investor Day and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US PCE inflation data spikes yields, but US equities hold the line.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IVT2IZ   -

The hot core US January PCE inflation data spooked markets on Friday as the market was forced to take Fed rate hike expectations to new cycle highs, with even discussion of the possibility of a 50-bp hike at the March FOMC meeting. Equities have been quick to recover as critical support held Friday, but the USD is firmer. Elsewhere, we note the many assets linked to the China reopening narrative struggling, from copper and other metals to AUD, etc., we also look at grain prices hitting new 1-year lows, look at the focus for equity markets this week on incoming earnings and more. Today's pod features Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The China recovery narrative struggling

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KDjvfJ   -

Today we look at the expression of the China recovery narrative in markets continuing to struggle, with the Chinese currency weakening and commodities generally under pressure, with a fresh sell-off in copper overnight that reversed the recent rally. In FX, the Aussie weak on that account, while the JPY is adrift after a damp squib from Ueda's nomination hearings. Elsewhere, we delve into shareholder yield perspective for the US market, European listed companies closing in on the US in earnings margin performance, the still fragile sentiment backdrop on geopolitical concerns. We also look at the week ahead in earnings and macro data. Today's pod features Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

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The next support levels are the bigger ones for a capitulation

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xLbvSf    -

Today we look at market sentiment remaining fragile ahead of the next support levels for the major US indices, which are the important ones for a . We again highlight the geopolitical risks as a possible trigger for a significant capitulation in sentiment, even as rising yields are already driving concerns. We discuss the comedy of NVidia continuing to pretend that crypto-mining doesn't exist, delve into the struggling China recovery narrative as expressed by commodities, the JPY focus in FX tonight as Japan reports CPI and BoJ Governor nominee Ueda is set to testify and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

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Helmets on as yields pressure, stocks plunge

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KupfIF   -

Today we break down the worst session in US equities in some two months, as traders finally wake up to the risks of higher treasury yields, but also possibly on concerns that wage pressures may drive a negative impact on corporate margins. On that front, interesting to note the market reaction to Walmart and Home Depot earnings and guidance. A look at FX themes, earnings and macro data ahead and more also on the today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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This limbo unlikely to last as geopolitics weigh.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kauWkq   -

Today we are watching and waiting for the US to come back online after the three-day weekend as the close on Friday has kept equity markets and the US dollar in limbo. We discuss the remarkably steep natural gas forward curve at length and what it is telling us, highlight interesting retail names reporting earnings today in the US, and note the huge headline risks in geopolitics as Russia's Putin is out speaking today with China's top diplomat in Moscow. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic