Saxo Market Call

USD and US yields brewing up trouble ahead of Jackson Hole

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pFWrRG   -

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The US dollar wrecking ball is in full swing, taking even USDCNH to new highs for the cycle after another rate cut in China overnight. Longer US treasury yields are also pressuring financial conditions and risk sentiment as the 10-year benchmark yield threatens 3.00% again. The chief event risk for the week will be the Jackson Hole, Wyoming speech from Fed Chair Powell. We also discuss the latest natural gas developments in Europe, speculative positioning in the commodities markets, the long term perspective for tangible vs. intangible stock returns over the last couple of decades, upcoming earnings, & more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

USD and treasury yields pushing back against the melt-up

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ChFvZE   -

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Today we note the strengthening headwinds against the melt-up in financial conditions as the US dollar continues to rise, having now broken higher against the Euro, sterling and yen, and as a new surge in US 10-year yields threatens. Elsewhere, US Natural Gas prices ease despite a weak storage build yesterday and wheat prices are retreating rapidly. In equities, focus on Applied Materials after their earning report, Canadian Solar and a look ahead at Deere. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

As risk sentiment rolls over, is crude oil set to rally?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3c3r7JD   -

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Today we note a further softening in sentiment, in part on a pick up in yields, but that story has yet to really trigger as long US treasury yields remain rangebound, if teasing important levels. We note important supports for the crude oil outlook, the crack spread picture in the energy complex, the still very low valuation of energy stocks relative to the broader market, stocks and earnings on our radar, FX developments as we keep the USDCNH chart front and center as a potential aggravator of weakening risk sentiment and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Watching for signs of altitude sickness

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Ceno6Q   -

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Today we look at the US equity market rolling over a bit after hitting a key resistance point in the form of the S&P 500's 200-day moving average. We continue to note the resilient US dollar and the risk of USDCNH suddenly commanding the market's attention again if China moves to devalue its currency. We also zero in on weak Antipodean currencies as AUDUSD struggles and NZD can't get a boost from the RBNZ overnight. Crude oil, industrial metals, the latest on the dire power emergency in the EU, danger of meme stocks, earnings ahead and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The US dollar is a financial condition, too.

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Today we look at a confusing market backdrop as the US dollar rose across the board despite weak US data and US treasury yields easing lower again. While measures of risk sentiment and financial conditions look very strong here, we need to remember that the US dollar is a financial condition unto itself and one of the most import exchange rates, the USDCNH rate should be on every trader's radar. As well, the US S&P 500 index is pushing up against a major resistance level. Crude oil, copper, earnings reports ahead and more on today pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Equities throwing down the gauntlet, how will Fed respond?

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Today we note that there doesn't seem to be any obstacle to the market advancing higher at the moment, as US longer yields remain tame and financial conditions continue to ease on hopes that we are set for a soft landing. But the Fed is likely not happy with conditions easing so aggressively and will have its work cut out for it to push back against the market's advance if treasury yields won't do the work for them. We also preview this week's earnings and macro calendar, talk energy, agriculturals and a zany cotton market, the USD turning back higher in places and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US yields jump, capping complacency

Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3bPTuuA   -

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Today we note that the big surge in yields at the long end of the US yield curve were likely the critical factor in capping and reversing the extension of the rally in equities yesterday. The US dollar found a bit of resilience on the development as well, if only half-hearted. Elsewhere, we zoom in on global natural gas supply concerns after the latest weekly US storage yesterday, discuss the grains outlook with a key report up late today and look ahead at the fairly busy macro calendar next week, while wondering how the Fed deals with re-establishing its hawkish credibility. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Soft CPI revives risk rally, but treasury reaction creates dissonance.

Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3Pg22Zq   -

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Today we look at the sharp correction in energy prices driving a softer than expected CPI print for the US in July, which saw sentiment responding by piling on to the recent rally and taking equities to new highs for the local cycle since June. Interestingly, the reaction to the CPI data has generated some tension as US treasury yields are trading sideways after erasing the knee-jerk drop in yields in the wake of yesterday's data. With financial conditions easing aggressively, the Fed faces quite a task if it wants to counter this development, with recent protests from individual Fed members failing to make an impression. Perhaps the Jackson Hole Fed forum at the end of this month is shaping up as a key event risk? Crude oil, the USD, metals, earnings and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic