Saxo Market Call

When is the great disinflation bet derailed?

Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3SDz4FO   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  - 

Today we discuss the possible reactivity to today's US July CPI data point, especially if a hotter than expected core reading challenges the market's determined bet that inflation is set to roll over and normalize over the next couple of years. We also look at an equity market that is technically rolling over, a US dollar that needs to choose a direction, and compelling commodity stories and chart points in gold, crude oil and coffee. A semiconductor, EV, deglobalization, and Walt Disney focus on the equity coverage today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Bears finally get a hook

Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3QykD3R   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  -

The equity market turned tail after another upside burst yesterday, creating the first compelling technical reversal in a while, with no readily identifiable catalyst, though we maintain concerns that complacency on how this cycle will shape up is excessive, particularly on geopolitical concerns and de-globalization drivers. Today we also look at NVidia's ugly revenue miss, Grains, gas and metals in commodities, and earnings reports on tap for today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The market is not for turning

Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3QtfvhK   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  -

The market continues to hang on to its view that the peak in Fed rates is imminent and that it will cut from around mid-next year despite strong US data and Fed members making clear that another big hike is coming in September. Can this week's CPI data change that? We also discuss commodities, with oil prices possibly a bit complacent given tight supply, while metals are showing signs of turning and gold is "walking a tightrope" on the macro outlook. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market complacency and the 2008 parallels.

Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3QoPX5l   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  -

Today we look at market complacency continuing as the market seems to be pricing in a soft landing for the economy and eventual disinflation. We compare the course of the current US equity market drawdown from the top with the bear market of 2007-09, take a look at the market's reaction to the Bank of England's dire outlook for the economy in its meeting yesterday, discuss the impact of buybacks on the US equity market, preview today's US jobs report and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market is not ready for stagflation

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3zW1dk7   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  -

Today we look at the market reaction to surprisingly strong ISM Services survey for July, which was completely at odds with the very weak July S&P Global Services PMI. We also discuss the implications and lack of confidence in the meaning of a new record inversion of the yield curve yesterday, especially vis-a-vis the risk of complacent forward assumptions on inflation normalizing. In particular, the market appears totally unprepared for stagflationary outcomes. We also discuss Europe's rumbling energy crisis, key equity stories and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Yield pop elicits complacent shrug from equities

Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3vBVPjE   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  -

Today we note the surprisingly complacent shrug in the US equity market, particularly in the most speculative sectors, despite a significant pop in treasury yields as a trio of Fed officials made it clear that they are at odds with the market adjusting Fed policy expectations lower for next year. We also look at gold rolling over and what it will take to excite a new significant rally in the precious metal. We note China's reaction to House Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and round up key equity stories, including Caterpillar's results and guidance and look at the earnings and macro data calendar for the rest of the week. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Taiwan tensions and a possible market pivot

Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3SwAQZx   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  -

Today we ask whether yesterday's market session may prove an important market pivot as US treasury yields eased further but were unable to boost equities. Defense stocks were top performers yesterday as tensions over Taiwan are set to mount as US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is set to visit Taiwan on Wednesday. FX moves, stocks to watch, including Caterpillar's earnings report today, risks in China's property sector and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Financial conditions in the driver’s seat

Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3oHQh31   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  -

Today we look at the US equity market wrapping up last week on a high note despite a bout volatility in the wake of a hotter than expected June US PCE inflation print. Financial conditions are in the driver's seat as the market continues to drive longer term US treasury yields lower and sees the Fed policy rate peaking for the cycle by early next year and easing eventually by perhaps mid-year, with tumbling credit spreads suggesting fears of a hard landing for the economy are easing. We're a bit less complacent. Upcoming earnings and the week ahead in macro data risks also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic