Saxo Market Call

Bank of Japan in a corner, can’t avoid volatility

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XeSVgD   -

Today, we look at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, noting the extreme anticipation around the event, together with the likelihood of considerable intraday volatility in the wake of the event, even if the Bank of Japan tries to deliver as little as possible, as we all know that new leadership and a likely further tightening of policy is in the pipeline with Kuroda's replacement after April. A look at crude oil, copper, upcoming earnings and macro data and more on today's pod, which features macro strategist Charu Chanana on the BoJ, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market bracing for BoJ impact Wednesday

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ZFqklV   -

Today, we look at an interesting week ahead as US equities continue to trade up against a pivotal resistance area (just above the 200-day moving average and just below the 4,000 level for the US SP& 500 index) as earnings season set for a big blast next week. Today US markets are closed. The event risk of the week, meanwhile, is the hotly anticipated Bank of Japan meeting on Wednesday, with markets unsure on whether Governor Kuroda and company are set to deliver further policy tweaks. Futures positioning in commodities, especially metals and the latest on natural gas in Europe and more on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market has moved on from US CPI, here comes BoJ

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ZvKoaz   - 

Today we look at the ironically in-line US CPI release yesterday and the market eventually deciding that the data was benign. Equity markets rallied into very critical resistance levels as US treasury yields dipped into the range lows and financial conditions eased. While the US dollar was weaker, the big mover in FX was the JPY, which is pounding stronger into anticipation of a further policy tweak at next Wednesday's Bank of Japan meeting. In commodities, we look at the jump in grains on the WASDE report, talk natural gas, metals as gold has traded into key levels after the CPI release and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market showing no fear ahead of US CPI

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3k03vco     -

Today we look at global equity markets gunning for more to the upside, apparently expecting a benign US CPI release today and pricing in a soft landing scenario as long treasury yields settled back lower after a strong US 10-year treasury auction yesterday. We also look at a resurgent JPY, why the euro is strong, but some thoughts on longer term caution, coffee and grains in commodities, the latest expansion plans abroad from TSMC, weak housing news but strong housing stocks & more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Metals are sending loud signals as US equities in limbo

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3vRPi3Y   -

Today we discuss the bounce-back in US equity markets as we are all supposedly holding our breath for a CPI release tomorrow when the last soft CPI release in December drove zany intraday volatility and a rally that was quickly erased - etching out a market top at the time. Elsewhere, we discuss the conflicting signals from expanding US credit while another sentiment survey disappoints, look at strong metals markets as a clear expression of hopes for a China-driven recovery, Apple's deepening vertical integration moves as it looks to ditch Samsung screens, and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

European equities have come full circle since Russian invasion

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3QpVrOp   -

Today we note that the major European equity markets have come full circle since the Russian invasion of Ukraine last February, in part driven by a near freefall in natural gas prices over the last few weeks on mild weather. How much more can the market wring out of this development? We also note the reversal in the US equity market rally yesterday ahead of the important CPI data on Thursday. In equities, focus toward the end of the week on the major US banks reporting, but in the meantime, we have the important news for Google of a $10 billion investment in OpenAI as the future of internet search is heating up for the first time in many years. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Over-reacting to a single data point?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3k0mbcf   -

Today we look at the mixed US jobs report on Friday and more importantly, the wild reaction to a very weak December ISM Services survey, while we question whether a single data point deserves such a strong reaction function. Regardless, the market took down US treasury yields  and the US dollar in the wake of the data. Elsewhere, the market is scrambling to absorb the remarkable policy shift out of China, with metals, AUD and especially CNH firming further. A look at stocks to watch, perspective on the big US banks as they are the first to report for the upcoming earnings season on Friday. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

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Beware risk of options tail wagging the market today.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GlgGw7    -  

Today, we look at the market reaction to strong US labor market data yesterday, which triggered higher yields as the market was forced to mark the Fed policy rate higher for longer this year. Equities dropped and the US dollar surged, but the main even awaits today in the form of the US official jobs and average hourly earnings data as well as the December ISM Services is also up later today. On that note, heavy interest in very short-dated options could mean huge volatility swings on big data surprises today. Elsewhere, all things China-related are also on the move, including the yuan as every day brings new signs of official support for the economy. A look at earnings next week, metals, & more  also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic