Saxo Market Call

Market stumbles after Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3PVsg3N   -

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Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech was credited with triggering the ugly slide in equities and broader risk sentiment on Friday, but the modest reaction in US treasury yields suggests that the Fed was only moderately more hawkish than anticipated. Regardless, the market slide has already developed ugly momentum and could test next supports if US data this week continues to support higher yields and a stronger US dollar, an important financial condition in its own right. We also discuss the latest commodity price developments and weak precious metals on the stronger US dollar and remarkably persistent view that hefty disinflation is just around the corner. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market not fearing Powell’s Jackson Hole musings

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3PVmpvg   -

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Today we offer our latest musings on Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Fed conference today and whether Powell is ready to wax as hawkish as some of his colleagues on the Fed, with the bar somewhat high to impress still very easy financial conditions, perhaps. We also look at the latest on natural gas volatility risk, also due to vastly higher weighting in commodities funds, the contribution and importance of earnings as an inflation drive, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Going nuclear

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3dOkOtP   -

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As we wait for the Fed Chair Powell speech at Jackson Hole and whether he can really bring anything new to the table, we look at the latest pressure on the already dire energy situation in Europe, the surprise indication from Japan of a strategic move in favor of nuclear, the latest earnings reports from Nvidia, Salesforce and Snowflake, and earnings reports ahead. In FX, we focus on the possible current account focus and possible repricing of AUDNZD significantly above its range of the last many years. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Crude oil bounce extends. Zany mismatch in US Services sector surveys.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3dPDl9d   -

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A zany day for US data as the August flash S&P Global Services PMI suggests a deepening contraction is afoot in the US services sector after an already weak July reading that contrasted with strength in the ISM Services survey for July. What are we supposed to believe. Elsewhere, crude oil has cemented its comeback with an extension higher yesterday and coffee is at risk of a further rise on supply woes. In equities, we look at the latest in the Tesla/Twitter saga, earnings ahead including NVidia after the close today, and an interesting company in the EV batter supply chain in Europe. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Cybersecurity is a growth industry. EURUSD dives below parity.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3dU7G6M   -

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The downside momentum in the equity market picked up pace yesterday as US yields continue to rise and the US dollar rose well above parity versus the euro and GBPUSD posted new cycle lows as Europe's energy woes continue. Elsewhere, oil prices have perked up as Saudi joins the Saxo Market Call in noting the disparity in the very tight physical market while the futures market appears complacent. In equities, cyber-security company Palo Alto reported strong earnings as cyber-security is set to remain a growth industry for years. More earnings and equity themes on the radar, FX developments, grains and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

USD and US yields brewing up trouble ahead of Jackson Hole

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pFWrRG   -

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The US dollar wrecking ball is in full swing, taking even USDCNH to new highs for the cycle after another rate cut in China overnight. Longer US treasury yields are also pressuring financial conditions and risk sentiment as the 10-year benchmark yield threatens 3.00% again. The chief event risk for the week will be the Jackson Hole, Wyoming speech from Fed Chair Powell. We also discuss the latest natural gas developments in Europe, speculative positioning in the commodities markets, the long term perspective for tangible vs. intangible stock returns over the last couple of decades, upcoming earnings, & more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

USD and treasury yields pushing back against the melt-up

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ChFvZE   -

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Today we note the strengthening headwinds against the melt-up in financial conditions as the US dollar continues to rise, having now broken higher against the Euro, sterling and yen, and as a new surge in US 10-year yields threatens. Elsewhere, US Natural Gas prices ease despite a weak storage build yesterday and wheat prices are retreating rapidly. In equities, focus on Applied Materials after their earning report, Canadian Solar and a look ahead at Deere. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

As risk sentiment rolls over, is crude oil set to rally?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3c3r7JD   -

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Today we note a further softening in sentiment, in part on a pick up in yields, but that story has yet to really trigger as long US treasury yields remain rangebound, if teasing important levels. We note important supports for the crude oil outlook, the crack spread picture in the energy complex, the still very low valuation of energy stocks relative to the broader market, stocks and earnings on our radar, FX developments as we keep the USDCNH chart front and center as a potential aggravator of weakening risk sentiment and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic