Saxo Market Call

Careful what you wish for, market.

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Today we look at a weak Q2 US GDP estimate pumping up the market due to the softening of financial conditions, with a further pump in late trading on Amazon and Apple earnings reports. Today we remind listeners that in the big cycles past that actually did see a recession, the market found its bottom as the Fed struggled to ease enough to catch up with a deteriorating economy, so in cycle terms, the market should be a bit careful what it hopes for here. John J. Hardy hosts.

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Market indulges in risk-on after weak Powell pushback

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Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at last night's FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell's unwillingness to push back strongly against market expectations for the path of Fed policy and really unwillingness to provide any guidance beyond data dependence. This sparked a strong risk-on rally as the market indulged in a complacent forecast for the path of inflation and the path for rates - something we would push back against strongly. Upcoming earnings, US-China relations and more on the pod. John J. Hardy hosts.

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Leaning against the market’s lean into FOMC

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Plenty to talk about today as earnings season rages on, the natural gas emergency seems to get more dire by the day, and with a possible geopolitical storm brewing over US House leader Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan.  But most of all, the market will zero in on today's FOMC meeting, where the market is leaning for the Fed policy rate to peak within about six months and roll over rather aggressively next year - a rather pointed view relative to the Fed's own forecasts. How does Powell guide today relative to this pointed market view? John J. Hardy hosts.

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VIX below 25 with this backdrop? You must be kidding...

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Today we look at a very complacent market as Russia dangles the sword of Damocles over the Eurozone in the form of threats to further sever the supply of natural gas deliveries. Other risks this week include the blitz of earnings reports set to pick up sharply today as Microsoft and Alphabet will report after Walmart stunned the market after hours yesterday with a weak forecast that gutted that stock and other large retailer names. We also discuss the risk that the market is expecting too significant a downward shift in Fed rate guidance even if it does deliver the 75 basis points . Guiding us through the technical situation across a number of assets in today's pod is technical analysis strategist Kim Cramer Larsson, with John J. Hardy hosting.

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Huge week ahead on earnings and Fed guidance

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The podcast is finally back from holiday! Today we look at a huge week ahead for equities and rates as it is the busiest week for earnings reports of this season and as the Fed is set for its latest super-size hike even as the market pulls the peak Fed funds rate both forward and lower. We also look at rising recession concerns in both the US and Europe, the history of whether financial conditions are as important as the economic cycle in the market outlook, and much more. Today's pod hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

 

USD breakout, commodities plunging, and equities love ’junk’

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Yesterday's session was quite a spectacle with commodities plunging 5% as the USD saw massive breakout against the EUR as punitive energy prices in Europe were igniting recession fears once again. With bond yields following commodities lower equities flows went into overdrive with commodity stocks naturally trading lower but the session evolved to a massive buy the worst performers this year and sell the best performers. In that world all the 'junk' pockets of equities rallied on the signal from commodities that a recession could be coming. July is typically a low liquidity month so moves can easily be amplified so remember this before putting too much weight on yesterday's moves. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

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RBA hikes and inflation trades are back

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Bond yields are climbing together with global equities on the back of an upside surprise to inflation in South Korea and better than expected PMI figures out of China bolstering growth/inflation trades. RBA hiked 0.5% point taking the the cash rate to 1.35% lifting the AUD as the central bank is still aiming to cool the economy and inflation. We also talk about the natural gas situation in Europe, which is getting worse, and SAS filing for Chapter 11 in New York this morning after failing to strike a new deal with 1,000 pilots. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

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Recession fears are pulling commodities and bond yields lower

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Recession fears are accelerating in markets pushing US yields down and Fed Funds futures are now pricing in an aggressive rate hike cycle until year-end before the Fed flips to cutting rates in 2023. Equities are responding positively in the short-term to lower interest rates but if a recession happens equities will continue to struggle. We also take a look at commodity markets and the negative signals about the economy that is coming from energy and industrial metals markets. Finally, we are talking about Tesla's Q2 deliveries declining q/q for the first time in two years. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic