Saxo Market Call

Diving commodities prices the driver.

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Today we look at commodities markets in the driver's seat as industrial metals prices resumed their nosedive, precious metals are trading near key levels, and crude oil sold off steeply, which in turn set the path lower for global yields. All of this is supportive of the Japanese yen, which spiked since late yesterday in the wake of a hot June Tokyo CPI release. We also review the equity market performance of the first half of 2022, note that financial conditions are tightening viciously, discuss Micron's very bad earnings report, the forward outlook for Q2 earnings and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Regime shift in volatility. EU NatGas woes mount.

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Today we look at gathering gloom again overnight in equity markets and steep correction in oil markets yesterday, in part on US demand figures and possibly on rising concern of the impact of a new Covid wave. That concern is already washing over travel stocks. We also discuss the remarkable regime shift in volatility behavior in this cycle, credit strains flashing red, stocks to watch, the fresh aggravation of EU natural gas prices, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market rips into reverse. Evening star on Nasdaq 100.

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Today we look at the US equity market ripping into reverse, in part on a massive slide in the expectations component of the US June Consumer Confidence survey, which has the market marking down Fed expectations slightly and finding safe havens in the US dollar and even treasuries, to a degree. We also look at crude oil not yet really fretting the demand destruction outlook, grains, stocks to watch for the rest of the week, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Eyeing quarter-end as next test for this market

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Today we remind of the upcoming quarter-end, both as the quarterly transition proved pivotal as Q1 yielded to Q2 and the equity market rolled over aggressively from a strong rally to a renewed and sustained sell-off. A look at conflicting signals from key commodities markets including copper, cotton and crude oil, discussion of Nike's outlook and the upcoming General Mills earnings, perspectives on today's June Consumer Confidence release and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Technically and seasonally pivotal week ahead

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Today we discuss Friday's huge equity market rally and its likely proximate causes, especially the revision lower of a key US inflation expectations survey. Looking ahead, we consider the importance of the quarterly roll this week after a horrific quarter for equities as of last week's lows that may be driving rebalancing flows. As well, options exposures may be a key driver into quarter end. We also discuss the mounting impact of quantitative tightening in the weeks ahead, the outlook for the Q2 earnings season with a few interesting names reporting out-of-synch earnings this week, the US dollar and the macro calendar ahead as the ECB hosts a three day conference starting today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Yield plunge lifts equities out of the abyss

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Today we look back at yesterday's historic session with big moves lower in the US and German 2-year yields responding to PMI figures for June indicating a more rapid decline in economic activity than estimated by economists. This is naturally lifting the recession probability and the timing of it causing safe-haven flows into bonds. The most interest rate sensitive parts of the equity market were the winners yesterday such as biotechnology and bubble stocks. Across currencies we observe weakness in the USD, AUD, and NOK reflecting lower economic activity, and the pressure is also coming of the JPY due to yesterday's rates move. On commodities we touch on the weakness in wheat and the tight physical market in oil. Other topics covered are the guidance cut from Zalando and container freight rates coming down. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Don’t look now, here comes coal!

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Today we look at commodity markets continuing lower, with crude oil joining in the sell-off with sudden fury yesterday before bouncing. Elsewhere, the dire natural gas situation in Europe risks worsening further and is reviving the outlook for what few remaining coal related equities are left standing. Elsewhere, we talk recession risks, AUD under pressure on the commodity theme, equity earnings and macro calendar risks on the radar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Commodities rout points to recession fears

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Today we note the whiplash-inducing turnaround in sentiment after yesterday's squeeze higher in US equities failed to spark any new positive tone in Asia, where an ugly slide in risk sentiment unfolded overnight, led by a steep sell-of in South Korean equities, as the country and its markets are at the intersection of many interesting themes. Elsewhere, an acceleration of the negative momentum in key commodities suggest that market is beginning to call a recession. Stocks to watch, the macro calendar, currencies and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic