Saxo Market Call

Markets charge back higher as we continue to cast a jaundiced eye.

Today, we note the US equity market strength, but also note some of the signs that the rally is of poor quality as we continue to maintain that we are in an unsustainable bubble, while recognizing we've no ability to call even a temporary top. Also, this is a critical phase for the US-China trade talks as we don't know whether the market's optimism is justified. Thoughts on geopolitics, single stock stories, macro and FX and some compelling further reading and further listening links also on the call. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Market says glass is half full as we near crunch time on multiple fronts

Today we look at the strong equity market recovery on Friday and its drivers, chiefly centred on hopes that US-China trade talks proceed in the direction of de-escalation, as sentiment related to the regional bank and private credit markets showed only marginal stabilization. Also, we refresh our impression of the precious metals markets after Friday's wild session and look at copper, crude oil and soybeans. Also, a look ahead at key US companies reporting in the coming days, US macro data that will be forthcoming this week, political developments in Japan and much more also on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Market fear levels shoot up, but not everyone is paying attention

Today we look at a relatively ugly day for the market, although the huge ugly sell-off in US regional banks was only one aspect bringing down overall sentiment, which looks suddenly rather shaky relative to what was a modest decline in the major indices. From a fresh big rally in US treasuries to a considerable spike in the VIX and crypto turning south once again, this market looks terribly nervy even as AI deal noise kept sentiment bubbly in places. Today's weekly close looks important for how sentiment shapes up as earnings season hits full stride next week even if it might be trumped by geopolitics, as discussed on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Today's links:

Brad Setser on what China is doing with its surpluses on Monetary Matters podcast, as well as its shock to the world and whether it has been the big gold buyer of late.

Henry Gao on X  - one worth following on understanding China's moves here.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

The waiting is the hardest part

Markets are hopeful that we get some kind of new US-China detente on trade ahead of a purported Xi-Trump summit "later this month". The stakes couldn't be higher. Plenty more to talk about as well as metals continue to scream higher in a slightly nervy market. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

No substack post today on the John J. Hardy substack, but here's a link discussed in today's pod (HT FTAlphaville) on What happens when Chinese resolve meets American rent-seeking?

 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Peak market meme-ification surely getting close?

Today, we look at markets taking the US-China trade stand-off quite seriously, while retail meme-stock madness continues apace as seen in many names pumping to new highs yesterday. We also look at the wild action in gold and especially silver, discuss the latest drop in crude oil prices, note that earnings season begins in earnest today with many of the big US banks reporting, talk macro and FX, geopolitics and more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

The silver streak - can it continue?

Today - we look at the wild ride in silver after it hit 50 dollars an ounce yesterday and for the first time ever - can the run continue? Elsewhere, a look at an ugly day for stocks yesterday, particularly as the average stock suffered a weak day as we revisit widening divergences in market internals. Also, an update on the Japanese yen with new political developments in Japan, the outlook for crude oil, companies reporting next week and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Talk of "melt-up" now competing with "bubble risk"

Today we look at the latest surge in US equities, led by key AI stocks while noting that talk of "melt-up" risk has become far more prevalent. We also note what types of developments in the market might suggest that the end of this incredible speculative run is getting closer. A few thoughts on the decline in the Japanese yen and what, if anything, can reverse it, more on private credit and misleading calm in junk bond yields, links of the day and more are also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Yen gets binned as gold hits 4k and dispersion trade catches our eye.

Today, a look at the weakest equity market session in the US in the last few weeks, with at least one key AI story triggering a bit of unease, while Tesla news disappointed. But macro was the headline stealer yesterday as the Japanese yen was thrashed across the board and gold soared above $4,000 for the first time. Also: today is crunch time for whether France can kick the political can to the 2027 election, the dispersion trade is getting wild and deserves our attention, speculative froth is downright insane in some single names and more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.