Saxo Market Call

Market complacency and the 2008 parallels.

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Today we look at market complacency continuing as the market seems to be pricing in a soft landing for the economy and eventual disinflation. We compare the course of the current US equity market drawdown from the top with the bear market of 2007-09, take a look at the market's reaction to the Bank of England's dire outlook for the economy in its meeting yesterday, discuss the impact of buybacks on the US equity market, preview today's US jobs report and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market is not ready for stagflation

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Today we look at the market reaction to surprisingly strong ISM Services survey for July, which was completely at odds with the very weak July S&P Global Services PMI. We also discuss the implications and lack of confidence in the meaning of a new record inversion of the yield curve yesterday, especially vis-a-vis the risk of complacent forward assumptions on inflation normalizing. In particular, the market appears totally unprepared for stagflationary outcomes. We also discuss Europe's rumbling energy crisis, key equity stories and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Yield pop elicits complacent shrug from equities

Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3vBVPjE   -

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Today we note the surprisingly complacent shrug in the US equity market, particularly in the most speculative sectors, despite a significant pop in treasury yields as a trio of Fed officials made it clear that they are at odds with the market adjusting Fed policy expectations lower for next year. We also look at gold rolling over and what it will take to excite a new significant rally in the precious metal. We note China's reaction to House Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and round up key equity stories, including Caterpillar's results and guidance and look at the earnings and macro data calendar for the rest of the week. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Taiwan tensions and a possible market pivot

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Today we ask whether yesterday's market session may prove an important market pivot as US treasury yields eased further but were unable to boost equities. Defense stocks were top performers yesterday as tensions over Taiwan are set to mount as US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is set to visit Taiwan on Wednesday. FX moves, stocks to watch, including Caterpillar's earnings report today, risks in China's property sector and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Financial conditions in the driver’s seat

Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3oHQh31   -

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Today we look at the US equity market wrapping up last week on a high note despite a bout volatility in the wake of a hotter than expected June US PCE inflation print. Financial conditions are in the driver's seat as the market continues to drive longer term US treasury yields lower and sees the Fed policy rate peaking for the cycle by early next year and easing eventually by perhaps mid-year, with tumbling credit spreads suggesting fears of a hard landing for the economy are easing. We're a bit less complacent. Upcoming earnings and the week ahead in macro data risks also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Careful what you wish for, market.

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Today we look at a weak Q2 US GDP estimate pumping up the market due to the softening of financial conditions, with a further pump in late trading on Amazon and Apple earnings reports. Today we remind listeners that in the big cycles past that actually did see a recession, the market found its bottom as the Fed struggled to ease enough to catch up with a deteriorating economy, so in cycle terms, the market should be a bit careful what it hopes for here. John J. Hardy hosts.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market indulges in risk-on after weak Powell pushback

Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3JiZSXO   -

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Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at last night's FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell's unwillingness to push back strongly against market expectations for the path of Fed policy and really unwillingness to provide any guidance beyond data dependence. This sparked a strong risk-on rally as the market indulged in a complacent forecast for the path of inflation and the path for rates - something we would push back against strongly. Upcoming earnings, US-China relations and more on the pod. John J. Hardy hosts.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Leaning against the market’s lean into FOMC

Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3RZXYzj   -

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Plenty to talk about today as earnings season rages on, the natural gas emergency seems to get more dire by the day, and with a possible geopolitical storm brewing over US House leader Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan.  But most of all, the market will zero in on today's FOMC meeting, where the market is leaning for the Fed policy rate to peak within about six months and roll over rather aggressively next year - a rather pointed view relative to the Fed's own forecasts. How does Powell guide today relative to this pointed market view? John J. Hardy hosts.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic