Saxo Market Call

Don’t look now, here comes coal!

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Today we look at commodity markets continuing lower, with crude oil joining in the sell-off with sudden fury yesterday before bouncing. Elsewhere, the dire natural gas situation in Europe risks worsening further and is reviving the outlook for what few remaining coal related equities are left standing. Elsewhere, we talk recession risks, AUD under pressure on the commodity theme, equity earnings and macro calendar risks on the radar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Commodities rout points to recession fears

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Today we note the whiplash-inducing turnaround in sentiment after yesterday's squeeze higher in US equities failed to spark any new positive tone in Asia, where an ugly slide in risk sentiment unfolded overnight, led by a steep sell-of in South Korean equities, as the country and its markets are at the intersection of many interesting themes. Elsewhere, an acceleration of the negative momentum in key commodities suggest that market is beginning to call a recession. Stocks to watch, the macro calendar, currencies and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

BoJ losing control. Geopolitical risks for Tesla.

Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3Nce5pA   -

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Today we continue our discussion on where markets are headed over the summer: into a period of calm, driven by an easing of the rise in yields and hopes for cooling inflation as economic data softens, or are we set for more shocks ahead on a fresh rise in especially US yields and the associated pressure on global financial conditions and risk sentiment? We also look at the geopolitical risks for Tesla due to Elon Musk's non-Tesla activities, discuss falling commodity prices as copper trades at important support, fresh pressure on the JPY as BoJ is losing control of its balance sheet and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Can bears go into hibernation for the summer?

Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/39F1k9u   -

Today we look at the market hitting fresh lows late last week and debate whether some relief from falling bond yields and a sell-off in energy prices might bring some relief to this market, even if the sources of that relief are concerns that a recession is incoming. We also discuss inflationary pressures set to continue from the steep rise in US rents, look at crude oil and commodity performance broadly, the lay of the land in FX after a remarkable week, and where are are focusing on earnings and on the macro calendar this week. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The BoJ is not for turning.

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3QnwQtf   -

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Today we discuss the Bank of Japan maintaining its policy stance overnight as it continues to swim against the stream of global central bank tightening, leading to a sharp new JPY weakening move. This contrasts with the Swiss National Bank's large hike yesterday, which has driven a tremendous CHF rally, not least in USDCHF. Also, weak US data drives a drop in US treasury yields, where is the equity market focus: bond yields per se or on recession risks? Natural gas, gold, crude oil, metals, stocks to watch, upcoming earnings reports and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

FOMC pump deflating fast. SNB beats ECB to the punch

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3QtJarY   -

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Today we look at what unfolded at last night's FOMC meeting, in which the Fed hiked the most since 1994 with the 75-basis-point increase to the policy rate, and how quickly the relief rally has faded this morning. An SNB rate hike of 50 basis points unfolded as we were recording the podcast - beating ECB to the punch. Is this a harbinger for the Bank of Japan capitulation on its policy, at least incrementally, tonight? We also look at the latest natural gas spike in Europe, crude oil selling off, factors holding back gold, the outlook for earnings and the US economy and more. Today's pod also features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Three days that could shake the world

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xOy6OG   -

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Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the tremendously important event risks set for the balance of this week, with a sudden emergency ECB meeting cropping up on today's schedule, the FOMC set for a likely super-size hike tonight, but is the market really prepared? Finally, and potentially most important for the risk of cross-market contagion, the Bank of Japan is set to meet on Friday and the market has thrown down the gauntlet and is already actively challenging the bank's yield-curve-control policy with heavy selling of JGB futures ahead of that meeting. All of this while cratering crypto markets are aggravating risk sentiment at least at the margin. Helmets on, as this could prove an historic week. Today's pod also features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A new market low, but we have yet to see a panic phase

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NWUJWY   -

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Today we look at an ugly break to new lows for the cycle in equity markets as the market rushes to price in two 75 basis point moves from the Fed over the next two FOMC meetings, after Fed Chair Powell pushed back against larger hikes at the May FOMC meeting. We also look at the most tense policy situation across global markets, the Bank of Japan's yield-curve-control policy and offer perspectives on how to trade the situation. A look at Oracle's stellar results, VIX not yet showing any remarkable level of strain, latest on crude oil as Libya shuts in, gold and more on today' pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic