Saxo Market Call

FOMC pump deflating fast. SNB beats ECB to the punch

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Today we look at what unfolded at last night's FOMC meeting, in which the Fed hiked the most since 1994 with the 75-basis-point increase to the policy rate, and how quickly the relief rally has faded this morning. An SNB rate hike of 50 basis points unfolded as we were recording the podcast - beating ECB to the punch. Is this a harbinger for the Bank of Japan capitulation on its policy, at least incrementally, tonight? We also look at the latest natural gas spike in Europe, crude oil selling off, factors holding back gold, the outlook for earnings and the US economy and more. Today's pod also features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Three days that could shake the world

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xOy6OG   -

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Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the tremendously important event risks set for the balance of this week, with a sudden emergency ECB meeting cropping up on today's schedule, the FOMC set for a likely super-size hike tonight, but is the market really prepared? Finally, and potentially most important for the risk of cross-market contagion, the Bank of Japan is set to meet on Friday and the market has thrown down the gauntlet and is already actively challenging the bank's yield-curve-control policy with heavy selling of JGB futures ahead of that meeting. All of this while cratering crypto markets are aggravating risk sentiment at least at the margin. Helmets on, as this could prove an historic week. Today's pod also features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A new market low, but we have yet to see a panic phase

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NWUJWY   -

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Today we look at an ugly break to new lows for the cycle in equity markets as the market rushes to price in two 75 basis point moves from the Fed over the next two FOMC meetings, after Fed Chair Powell pushed back against larger hikes at the May FOMC meeting. We also look at the most tense policy situation across global markets, the Bank of Japan's yield-curve-control policy and offer perspectives on how to trade the situation. A look at Oracle's stellar results, VIX not yet showing any remarkable level of strain, latest on crude oil as Libya shuts in, gold and more on today' pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Very very heavy

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3twDh3d   -

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Today we break down what spooked the market on Friday: the massive surge in US yields after the US CPI came in hotter than expected and not least, as the long-term inflation expectations in the preliminary June University of Michigan sentiment survey jumped to new highs. The US yield curve is suddenly close to inverting again after Fed expectations were marked sharply higher for coming meetings. We also look at concerns that Chinese serial lockdowns will continue to dog global supply chains from here, the risks in the crypto space aggravated by the unfolding meltdown, and a rocky ride ahead this week with multiple major central bank meetings on tap, headed by the Wednesday FOMC and whether Powell and company will have to re-up the hawkish stance. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The unbearable tightness to be?

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3zvuIcS   -

Today we look at the market tilting hard to the downside in the wake of the ECB meeting yesterday, after the meeting jolted EU interest rates higher, with a blowout in peripheral spreads spoiling the recent euro rally and sending the single currency tumbling by day's end. We also look at the market eyeing today's US CPI release with trepidation, as a strong core rate in particular could further spook markets on the need to price even more tightening from the Fed as hopes for inflation rolling over may be spoiled for now. Thoughts on grains, gold, Tesla in trouble and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A pivotal ECB meeting today. Watching CNHJPY.

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Q9OWyA   -

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Today we preview today's pivotal ECB meeting as rate expectations have rushed to new highs for the cycle this week in anticipation of the ECB's anticipated July rate lift-off, with the market divided on whether the ECB is ready to hike 50- or 25 basis points to initiate the tightening cycle at the July meeting. We also look at new highs for the cycle in crude oil yesterday, natural gas markets roiled by a fire at a US LNG facility, the ongoing JPY volatility (note CNHJPY at 20.00!), and important stocks to watch today, including Credit Suisse, Meta, Roku and DocuSign. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Yen drop is outstripping fundamentals

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3MJC0Nb   -

Today we discuss the market managing a comeback from a break of support yesterday as volatility drops to new local lows. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen moved aggressively lower despite a consolidation in global bond yields, an indication that speculative flows are taking over from the fundamental backdrop. We also break down the crude oil supply situation, developments in the uranium market, gaining exposure to rising inflation in rents via REITs and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Yen spinning into the abyss on rising global yields.

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Mjlymo   -

Today we look at a fresh pop in global yields helping to drive a sentiment shift lower, although financial conditions and volatility have yet to show any real new unease. We also look at the Lawrence Summers Group arguing that rents are a key inflation driver and that inflation risks becoming unanchored, requiring a real "Volcker moment" for the Fed to get ahead of the curve. Elsewhere, high energy prices are an important market risk, while metals are stumbling after a big pull higher in copper last week. In FX, the JPY is spinning into the abyss on the rise in global yields while sterling is in focus after Boris Johnson survived a leadership vote. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic