Saxo Market Call

Zero Covid threat refuses to go away

Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3Vd3jnt   -

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Today we look at downbeat sentiment on the latest concern that the reopening trade in China isn't going to happen any time soon with the first official deaths from Covid there in months reported. Elsewhere, we look at tight inverse correlation between risk sentiment and the US dollar and positioning in the US FX futures market, the holiday-shortened week in the US, gold, copper & crude oil, incoming earnings including Dell and Zoom Video, the macro calendar for this week (including the US Thanksgiving holiday) and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Massive Op-Ex today: maybe meh now, but maybe mayhem another time

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GrdFvO    -

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Today we look through key markets for the technical lay of the land, from the US and German equity markets to gold, US yields. We also note a very heavy crude oil market, with cycle support possibly coming into play in the days ahead. Elsewhere, we dive into some examples of the enormous rise in options trading and note the background risk this brings to the market, regardless of whether today's massive options expiry in the US on over $2 trillion in underlying assets proves a non-event. Today's pod features Saxo Technical Strategist Kim Cramer Larsson, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Could weather be the next major trigger?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3URcx9q   -

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Today we look at risk sentiment taking a breather after a particularly strong US October US Retail Sales report, although long US treasury yields fell on the day and took the yield curve inversion to its most negative in over forty years as markets continue to price a recession ahead. The key incoming data doesn't start rolling in for another couple of weeks, so we wonder if a possible shift in weather into proper winter mode could change the complacent stance in energy markets. Elsewhere, we wonder if the Budget Statement from UK Chancellor Hunt can continue to support sterling, look at the plunge in coffee prices, Nvidia and Siemens earnings, and more. Today's podfeatures Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

 

Choppy markets underline higher volatility risks

Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3txmyMH   -

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Today we discuss US markets exploding higher yesterday after a soft PPI release, only to have an apparently Russian missile hitting Poland on the Ukrainian border roiling sentiment. The USD behavior yesterday was inverse to the swings in equities, pointing to more correlation with risk sentiment swings than US yields as we look ahead at today's US Retail Sales data. Crude oil, tightness in the commodity markets, the huge announcement from Apple on plans to purchase US-made chips and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Squeeze on USD and sentiment hitting pivotal areas

Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3Tzac1b   -

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Today we note an indifferent session yesterday yielding to a strong session for sentiment overnight in Asia, perhaps in part from the friendly tone in the wake of the Biden-Xi summit yesterday, but also on stimulus hopes after weak Chinese data overnight. Elsewhere, we note the shift in attitude in the gold market as the USD remains very weak, with the latter trading at pivotal support areas in places. Wheat, crude oil, key semiconductor stocks to watch and upcoming earnings and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Bear markets have the most spectacular squeezes

Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3ttblgo   -

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Today we continue to find reason to question the quality of this melt-up in equity markets after last Thursday's soft US CPI print, with the first prominent Fed official already out overnight with pushback against this drop in US yields. Still, that's not to say that the move can't extend in the short term, as the market is also hoping that a shift in China's Zero Covid policy is coming. Xi and Biden will meet today ahead of the G20 meeting. We also look at stocks to watch this week, an important week for earnings, the big moves in metals both precious and industrial, the US dollar and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

CPI print triggers historic day across markets

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3EksL4R   -

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Yesterday's lower than estimated October US inflation figures (both headline and core) triggered a gigantic move across all markets with Nasdaq 100 futures rallying 7.5%, US 10-year yield dropping 30 basis points, USDJPY plunging 3.8%, and copper futures rallying 4.2% over two trading sessions. Adding to the positive sentiment is China's announcement this morning to ease Covid restrictions which will add to growth and inflation. According to some estimates the moves across markets yesterday led to the biggest single day easing of financial conditions which do not really fit with what the Fed wants to achieve. Investors must remind themselves that this inflation print is just one data point. In today's podcast we cover the inflation report and the reactions across many different markets. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Margin call contagion from crypto

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3DUUvvE   -

Peter's article: Investors should not wish for an average equity market.   -

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Today we look at the sudden shift of the plot over the last 24 hours as the crypto contagion effects from the meltdown in that space have reached sufficient magnitude to impact sentiment across markets. We emphasize caution on the network effects among many clusters of assets held by the same hands holding crypto. Also, a look at where we are with the equity risk premium as investors better not hope for "normal" equity valuations. A glance at FX and the USD rising on liquidity concerns and brushing off the drop in US treasury yields, which brings into question the reaction function around today's October US CPI release, which may not have the impact previously anticipated, even on a surprise. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic