Saxo Market Call

Bounce unlikely to achieve more than dead cat status

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GdwCQK   -

Today we look at the bounce in the US market on Friday from a key technical level near 3,800 in the S&P 500, just after the market had taken out recent cycle support levels. Meanwhile, lower US treasury yields and a squeeze on USD longs have helped drive a modest bounce in sentiment, though we remain very cautious. Also today: AI pipedreams, the latest on global food concerns, natural gas, FX, gold, earnings ahead this week, how to understand equity valuations, using Zoom Video Communications as an example and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Framing the current equity market drawdown

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3MyCd6t   -

Today we look at markets tip-toeing back away from the cycle lows, especially after a rate ease in China buoyed sentiment there. We also highlight a huge ongoing shift in portfolio allocations as a major Blackrock momentum fund (MTUM) is set for a massive rebalancing. And we put the current overall market drawdown in historic perspective, warning that investors need to zoom out to consider the 100-year timeframe rather than the merely the post-GFC one. Thoughts on industrial and precious metals, FX and the status of the US dollar rally as well as a preview of next week's earnings- and macro calendar also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market tilts back to the edge of the abyss.

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NpZd7O   -

Today we break down the worst session for US equities in over two years after another large US retailer, this time Target, saw its share price gutted after noting inflation driving rising margin pressures. As stocks are back at the precipice of key support, we take a look at next potential downside targets, the remarkable lack of a "normal" VIX forward curve given market stress at present, Tesla's Elon Musk becoming a loose cannon after Tesla kicked off the S&P 500's ESG index, look at JPY wrestling with the USD in FX, CAD concerns, crude oil, industrial metals and grains and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Equities nearing pivotal resistance. US housing rolling over.

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3lj2Nof   -

Today we break down the strong market session yesterday, with crypto-related names the star performer on a day that Bitcoin is still struggling to find separation from 30k, and with the market higher despite a fresh hawkish broadside from the Fed as Powell claimed the Fed won't hesitate to take the Fed Funds rate above neutral. Key short-term resistance is coming into view in US stocks and is already here in Europe. Elsewhere, we look at a worst in 35-year drop in Walmart on its profit forecast, discuss a misguided forecast on the housing market from Home Depot CEO after that company got a boost from its earnings report, look at evidence the from leading indicators showing that the US housing market is rolling over, the latest on crude oil and natural gas, earnings and macro data up today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Interesting divergences in a temporarily quiet market

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NfKsUQ   - 

Today we note the interesting and remarkable divergences in market internals yesterday despite the nominally uneventful session, one that saw VIX volatility continuing its freefall back into the range. We highlight widening corporate bond spreads as a concern, run through the latest on grain prices and copper, talk Tesla's weak performance, stocks and earnings to watch today, FX themes and gold, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Catching knives a dangerous pastime

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3sGvAab   -

Equity markets surged on Friday in what looks so far like a short squeeze as the market ran dry of fresh sellers, with the most speculative sectors backing up in spectacular fashion after Bitcoin and the Tether "stable coin" survived existential threats late last week. Today we look at fresh concerns on the outlook for global food prices as India has moved to ban wheat exports on weather related developments there, sending wheat limit up in Chicago. We also discuss the latest on Elon Musk's Twitter acquisition intentions, the weak ahead in earnings and macro event risks and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Markets are under siege, and volatility is only warming up

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3subXBY   -

Fires are springing up everywhere and it feels like markets are under siege, but the volatility curve doesnt even look particularly alarming yet. We focus on the areas that could continue to keep markets on tilt, including the breaking of the largest "stable" coin Tether already in evidence today after Bitcoin melted through a huge chart level yesterday, the Hong Kong dollar peg under pressure, the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark triangle, etc. In FX, the focus is on the jolt higher in the JPY even more so than the ongoing USD strength, while commodity traders have it relatively easy on the volatility front, outside of coffee. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market slows the bleeding. Gold rally on life support.

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3N361bd   -

Today we look at a pause in the equity market slide a day after the worst day for global equities in nearly two years, identify important resistance levels for the S&P 500, talk commodities from copper and gold (where the last gasp support has been tested) to natural gas and crude oil. We also highlight relative strength in the major currencies, the muted EURUSD countertrend price action, and run down the earnings and macro calendar for today. We continue to highlight the systemic risk in the crypto space if Bitcoin punches below 30k. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic