Saxo Market Call

Gold rips on crashing crypto. USD on edge ahead of CPI.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3EhIzW5   -

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Today we look at the US mid-term election results as they roll in, where the House looks set to flip Republican and the Senate may go down to a December 6th run-off in Georgia (as in 2020 and providing fodder for election denier conspiracy theories, etc...) but either way cementing the lame duck second half of Biden's presidency. Elsewhere, we look at the massive gold rally yesterday, in part on huge liquidity pressures in the crypto space that have prices tumbling there. Also, Tesla, Disney, stocks to watch, the USD on edge ahead of critical CPI release tomorrow and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Are bonds and equities set to part ways?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3FT6wEp   -

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Today we look at markets as we await US elections today and the US CPI data print on Thursday, all while everyone has very twitchy trading fingers on hopes that China is set to ease up on its Covid restrictions. We also discuss the simultaneous decline in bond market and equity market volatility and ask which asset class might be more attractive. Equity sentiment has improved sharply and is near six-month highs. In commodities, we zero in on nat-gas, gold, cocoa and coffee. Stocks to watch, including Tesla, upcoming earnings from Disney and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Market still poking around for peak Fed

Slides: https://bit.ly/3UsGyfz   -

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Today we step back and look at last week's price action and especially after the FOMC rate decision. China is in focus over supposedly easing its Covid restrictions lifting copper and other industrial metals including emerging market equities. The USD also seems to be rolling over in the short-term easing financial conditions a bit and lifting risk sentiment. On the macro side, we discuss US consumer credit growth and what it means for the cycle and we highlighting the plunge in European economic activity over the past three months. On equities, we discuss rumoured Meta layoffs and Apple cutting its iPhone production target. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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US October jobs report next test for FOMC reaction

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3WywenF   -

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Today we look at whether the US October jobs (and earnings!) report later today will extend or disrupt the powerful market reaction to Fed Chair Powell's hawkish FOMC press conference on Wednesday. We also look at the impact of a very dovish Bank of England meeting and the market thumbing its nose at the BoE's rate guidance next year. We also look at crude oil, gold, copper & cotton, stocks to watch including a huge positive beat from SocGen this morning. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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The FOMC pulls off a hawkish pivot

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3fwDoYQ   -

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Today we look at the hawkish Fed Chair Powell press conference delivering a hammer-blow to sentiment as he managed to both pull off the idea that the Fed may indeed soon pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes as soon as December, but that any talk of a pause is "very premature". The result? Sentiment thrashed and the USD going vertical as the market takes Fed rate expectations and the terminal rate next year higher still. Incoming US data could further aggravate this move if the data remains even resilient, much less hotter than expected. We also talk through the reaction to the FOMC in gold, risks to sterling today if BoE fails to take the hawkish hint from Powell, stocks to watch, perspective on where we are with equity valuations and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Powell in the hot seat today, will he prove sufficiently hawkish?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3Nv3Xu8   -

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Today we discuss the shockingly strong September US JOLTS job openings survey out yesterday that took down risk sentiment as US yields and the US dollar jumped. It's the latest data point to suggest that the Fed needs to hawkishly keep all options on the table to buy at least a bit of time and two monthly data cycles until the December 14 FOMC meeting, where it can better make a decision on whether to downshift the size of further hikes and provide its next set of projections and policy forecasts. A focus on incoming data is likely, but how will the market react? Elsewhere, we look at key stocks to watch as earnings season rolls on, industrial and precious metals and crude oil, key FX stories and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Does Fed have any choice but to push back against the rally?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3zwNPT2   -

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Today we look at another jump in sentiment overnight as the RBA maintains its slow pace of tightening, increasing the drumbeat of expectations that central banks are set to ease off the policy tightening gas. But with risk sentiment having roared off the lows and financial conditions rapidly easing in the US, will the Fed have any choice but to stay on message and push back against this market rally? Elsewhere, we look at oil and natural gas, uninspired gold, stocks to watch as earnings this quarter are underperforming expectations, the increasingly busy macro calendar ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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Fed faces devilishly difficult guidance task on Wednesday

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3Nmo9hp   -

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Today, we scratch our heads a bit at Friday's wildly strong equity session, as the narrative supporting recent equity market strength - the anticipation of a dovish downshift in Fed policy guidance - was rapidly unwinding on the same day. An article at the weekend from "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal suggests that the Fed is concerned the market is expecting too much of a policy climb-down this Wednesday. We also discuss wheat jumping on Russia moving against the Ukrainian grain deal, industrial metals struggling on weak China data and a weak Chinese currency, the busy earnings and macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic