Saxo Market Call

Sentiment bounces, but Amazon...

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3OJdVbo   -

Today we look at whiplash for US equity traders as sentiment rallied strongly yesterday from depressed levels, only to have a ton of bricks dropped on the market by a very weak Amazon report, all while hopes for Chinese stimulus in the background drove strong sentiment in Asia. We also discuss Apple's supply chain concerns, the outlook for energy given the ongoing lack of investment, fresh spikes in fuel prices, financial conditions, a big week ahead for macro as the FOMC announcement is up next Wednesday, with today's US PCE inflation data for March one of the last big macro data points ahead of that meeting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Dollar danger, Meta bounce in a heavy market. Apple on tap.

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kj2poX   -

Today we look at a US equity market that posted a nervy session yesterday, with a surge after the close from less bad Meta news than feared. We still assess that the market is trading heavily, with additional danger from a surging US dollar as USDJPY surged to new 20-year highs on the Bank of Japan doubling down on its yield-curve-control policy and therefore deepening its loss of control over its balance sheet. We also look at more earnings ahead, including Apple and Amazon tonight, edible oil prices a concern for global food inflation, gold, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Equities capitulate to the brink.

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KkpZMR   -

Today we look at a US equity market that capitulated to the lows of the year, with sentiment worsening late on an earnings miss from Google parent Alphabet after the close. Elsewhere, the euro dropped to new five-year lows versus the US dollar this morning as Russia threatens to cut off gas supplies if importers refuse to pay in rubles, with supplies into Poland and Bulgaria disrupted today. We look at Chinese stimulus hopes after Xi comments overnight, more earnings in focus today, key FX themes and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Earnings blitz kicks off today in shadow of liquidity concerns

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Kiig1A   -

Today we look at the market posting a bounce yesterday, but one that has yet to impress or significantly turn back the recent ugly acceleration in negative momentum. Today marks the start of a remarkable blitz in quarterly earnings reports, with key names like Microsoft, Alphabet and Visa reporting after the close, but many interesting other names that touch on key equity themes reporting before and during the US session later today. A look at crude oil, copper, grains, FX themes and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

China’s FX moves supercharging developments

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xL3uhs   -

Today we look at the market sell-off extending, in part on fresh concerns of widening covid lockdowns in China, this time potentially in the capital Beijing, as commodity prices sell-off steeply and risk sentiment continued lower after Friday's very weak close. We also discuss China's agenda as it viciously weakens its currency, the outlook for grains as speculators are very one-sided in key markets, the outlook for earnings season and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The bottom just dropped out of this market

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3EBF5Mu   -

Today we assess the sudden and alarming deterioration in risk sentiment as headlines attribute much of the move to fresh hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell, who called the US labor market "unsustainably hot" yesterday. We look at the technical capitulation in the Nasdaq 100 index, the failure of recent equity investment themes like commodities to provide some defense against the broad selling pressure yesterday, gold's relative quiet actually very impressive in this environment, crude oil, grains, FX themes and the week ahead for earnings and macro data. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

EUR relief rally, Tesla impresses again

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3v1dwZZ   -

Today we look at the euro trying to piece together a rally as the Le Pen-Macron debate ahead of the Sunday election run-off was seen as a victory for Macron. As well, we break down yet another impressive quarterly earnings and deliver performance from Tesla, which has shown an impressive ability to expand margins. Earnings previews, the latest on crude oil and product supply tightness, FX themes and more on today's pod, which features Christopher Dembik on macro and France,  Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Where have all the bulls gone?

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3M8KIEG   -

Today we assess a strong market comeback yesterday on little news, but certainly with a strong dip in crude oil prices providing a bit of a tailwind, as well, perhaps as an incredible lack of bullish sentiment according to at least one weekly US survey. We also discuss the prospects for Netflix after the company announced a drop in subscribers and shares were marked down heavily in after hours trading late yesterday. The sharp weakening move in CNH, whether CHF is set to move sharply in the wake of the French presidential run-off this Sunday, gold and crude oil, more earnings previews and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic