Saxo Market Call

Dovish ECB guidance deepens central bank pivot narrative

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3DibbNi   -

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Today we look at the novel development of a negative correlation in equities and bonds in recent days as rallying bonds are failing to support equity prices. Amazon was the latest to drop a bomb on sentiment yesterday with a very weak outlook after hours, even as a handful of other large companies reported solid earnings yesterday. Elsewhere, the ECB was the latest central bank to surprise on the dovish side with surprisingly cautious guidance. And USDJPY is up sharply again overnight despite lower US yields as the BoJ held the line and the Japanese government announced a new stimulus package. Elsewhere, we look at the latest on natural gas, coffee & cotton, upcoming earnings, the macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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Meta does a lead zeppelin act

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3FmBaFV   -

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Today we look at another disappointing session for equities yesterday as a fresh dip in yields on the central bank pivot narrative, encouraged in part by a smaller than expected rate hike from the Bank of Canada, failed to sustain the market rally. Sentiment was further dashed after the close on a hideous result from Meta. Nonetheless it has been a stellar week for equities, despite marquee names reporting weak results, with heavy hitters Apple and Amazon reporting earnings today after the close. We also talk the dire outlook for diesel supply, a copper surge, USD suffering on the central bank pivot narrative and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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US mid-terms coming into view. Bring out the conspiracy theorists.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3FibxGk   -

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Today we look at a whiplash-inducing session for equities traders as a strong session yesterday on falling treasury yields and a weaker US dollar was marred in the aftermarket session by very weak earnings from Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet. We break down those earnings reports, the next key companies to report, the status of the US dollar, crude oil and gold, and importantly: the narrative around the Biden administration, with a cooperative Fed, trying to engineer strong support for the equity market into the mid-term elections the week after next. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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US megacap earnings on deck

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3gEwm4e   -

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Today we round out our view on the growing Chinese equity market discount as the market takes a dim view of prospects for returns there, given the policy focus on "common prosperity", not to mention geopolitical concerns. The weakening yuan is also a key focus in Asia. Elsewhere, today we have the earnings season getting into full swing today with Microsoft, Alphabet and many others reporting. Crude oil platinum, FX and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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Hang Seng delivers a vote of no confidence in Xi’s 3rd term

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3TNyogN   -

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Today we look at the zany session that developed on Friday across not just USDJPY but all markets in the wake of apparent heavy official intervention from Japan, although sources there are playing coy with their communication on the issue. We also discuss a vicious further slide in the Hang Seng index as investors vote no confidence in the signals emanating from the CCP party congress ahead of Xi's third term. A look at natural gas, copper, earnings season hitting fever pitch this week, the macro calendar for the week ahead and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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US yields applying maximum pressure - where’s the angst?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3StkgIM   -

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Today we note the remarkable continued rise in US treasury yields as the 10-year Treasury benchmark reached 4.25%, and the perhaps equally remarkable lack of significant impact on risk sentiment and the US dollar (outside the rush higher in USDJPY, of curse) from this latest surge in yields. We also look at the latest on natural gas, plummeting cotton prices and gold, FX themes, the busy calendar ahead for equity earnings and macro data and central bank meetings next week and more on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Spring loaded volatility pent up by 150 in USDJPY

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ToCHj6   -

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Today we look at rising US treasury yields continuing to drive brutal headwinds for risk assets, even if the price action in equity markets was fairly sedate. Meanwhile, the currency situation is extremely spring-loaded around the 150.00 level in USDJPY, which traders are eyeing with concern on the risk of enormous volatility should we trade above that level - which US yields adding energy to upside pressure in the background. Today features Technical Strategist and chartist Kim Cramer Larsson, who takes us through the technical situation in US equities, the US 10-year treasury yield, USDJPY and more. John J. Hardy hosts.

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Keeping it simple: US long Treasury yields hitting new highs

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3g8tlJg   -

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Today we look at another choppy US equity market session, with a fresh rally attempt in late trading on far better than expected Netflix results and guidance. That rally is unlikely to persist as long as US treasury yields continue to set new highs for the cycle, as they did briefly this morning. The very weak JPY and fresh CNH weakness are key topics in FX as we also look at the key earnings coming up on our radar, especially Tesla. This and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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