Saxo Market Call

Far more noise than signal here

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3yJOhg3   -

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Today we look at another zany session on Wall Street yesterday, where we suspect that heavy derivatives related exposures are creating a lot of noise and little signal. Meanwhile, we are curious to see if we can pick up the signal from incoming company earnings,  as we highlight the next important companies to report this week as earnings season hits full stride. Interesting FX stories, including the latest thoughts on sterling, and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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Deglobalization and its discontents

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3yL3xcQ   -

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Today we look at Friday's whipsaw turnaround in equities after the bizarre Thursday rally, as the heart of earnings season lies dead ahead and the world's most traded stock, Tesla, has dumped to a new low for the year just ahead of its Wednesday earnings call. We also discuss Chinese leader Xi's speech over the weekend and whether Europe is set to declare China an economic rival, as well as watching for the ongoing fallout for semiconductor companies after the Biden administration moved to limit semiconductor tech transfer to China. The latest in FX, individual stocks to watch and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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Bear market rally! Wow, but meh...

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3TixZTm   -

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Today we discuss the remarkable turnaround in equities yesterday after a hotter than expected core US CPI print for September pumped Fed rate expectations higher and triggered a sharp new slide in the market. The rally came after both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 tested important support levels. As the headline suggests, we're far from sure that the market comeback offers much information value despite its impressive scale. Elsewhere, we look at the mixed status of USD pairs after yesterday's action, look at natural gas and copper, preview the day and week ahead on the earnings calendar and upcoming macro data points and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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Europe’s predicament is generational, not just about this winter

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3COtgCv   -

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As we await today's US September CPI and wonder whether a soft surprise can really move the needle, we highlight one of the starkest assessments of Europe's current predicament, which has crystallized since Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this year and is not just about stocking up on enough gas to survive the coming winter, but will require decades to address. A look at burgeoning interest in the nuclear energy, stocks to watch and upcoming earnings reports, crude oil, wheat and a 79-year low in the orange crop in the US and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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All eyes on BoE and the UK Gilt market

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3yyo7gp   -

Saxo Q4 2022 Quarterly Outlook: Winter is Coming   -

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Today we talk about the continuing weakness in equities with the latest jolt coming from BoE Governor Bailey's comments that UK pension firms must get their house in order by Friday as the central bank is planning to step away from the market. We also cover today's oil market and the expected forecasts from IEA and EIA, the grains markets and finally gold that attempting to bounce back from its recent decline. We also cover stocks to watch which today are Intel, Chr Hanse, and LVMH. Finally, we cover today's earnings release from PepsiCo and the economic calendar with a focus on US PPI figures and FOMC Minutes later tonight. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

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Back at the brink - do we go over?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Tf5kOT   -

Saxo Q4 2022 Quarterly Outlook: Winter is Coming   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  -

Today we look at equity markets back at the cycle lows just ahead of earnings season as treasury yields and a strong US dollar continue to pressure. We also discuss unrealistic earnings expectations for the coming batch of earnings reports, the large banks' massive unrealized losses on bond portfolios that will hamper buyback programs and dividend generosity, the ongoing dicey situation for UK gilts and sterling as sentiment and policymaker credibility continue to struggle, crude oil & gas, FX focus, TSMC's ugly day and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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The unbearable tightness getting us closer to peak yields

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ysVrWb   -

Saxo Q4 2022 Quarterly Outlook: Winter is Coming   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  -

Today we look at an ugly close to last week for equity markets after the market read a mostly uneventful September jobs report as negative for risk sentiment because the unemployment rate dropped back to the cycle low of 3.5%, driving treasury yields back toward the cycle highs and sending the US dollar higher again. Sentiment failed to improve in Asia as the week gets under way, with higher oil prices weighing and amplified by the stronger US dollar, while geopolitical jitters are more uncomfortable than ever. Precious metals, wheat, pondering peak tightness, the important event risks on the economic calendar and more are also on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

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Hard for today’s US jobs data to move the needle

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3T84HHb   -

Saxo Q4 2022 Quarterly Outlook: Winter is Coming   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  -

Today we note a fresh weakening in sentiment as US treasury yields rose and the US dollar roared back higher, particularly against the smaller currencies. Also, a look at today's US jobs report and whether it can move the needle much, given the drumbeat of Fed rhetoric staying on the unified tightening-and-not-pivoting message, which will likely require many months of weakening inflation and a weakening jobs market to drive a shift. That means the surprise side is a very strong jobs and earnings report today. Discussion of AMD's shock revenue miss for Q3 reported after hours yesterday, the week ahead in earnings as earnings season get under way, the macro calendar points of note next week and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic